2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Brutus]

Breakout of Southern States in the 2004 presidential election (as of the latest poll data)

Bush continues to be strong in the South, and support for him in the core of reliably Republican states isn't seriously threatened in my model until his nationwide approval ratings dip under 45%. (At the moment, the average of the latest eight major polls is 51.5%.)

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Lousiana
4. Kentucky (border state)
5. Arkansas
6. South Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. North Carolina
10. West Virginia (border state)

Leans Republican
11. Virginia
12. Tennessee                  
13. Missouri (border state)

Leans Democrat
14. Florida                          

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)

West Virginia is not reliably Republican.  Tennessee might be, however.  Take a look at the 1988 results vis a vis the rest of the country.  

I don't why pundits are always lumping West Virginia in with the GOP's southern block.  From what I've heard, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one, and that the only reason Bush carried it in 2000 was due to Gore's environmental positions.  Furthermore, other than the Republican landslides in 1972 and 1984, WV has been pretty reliably Democrat in presidential elections.

First posting from a newbie and political junkie.

[Brutus]

The election goes to the House of Representatives

What a nightmare scenario.  Does anyone have any thoughts about the possibility of another result that gives Bush the electoral majority but has the Democrats winning the popular vote?