2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[zorkpolitics]

Update on the predictions:

So far 16 forum members have made predictions and in general are predicting another close election:

Dem Average: 254 EV, Bush Average 284 EV

Indeed, 11 of the 16 predictions are for a close election similar to victories by Kennedy, Carter, Bush II, with <305 EV.

Just two predictions, both for Bush, are for a solid win of the scale seen by Clinton (>370 EV): Beet Juice 373, and htmldon 370.

Interestingly, there is only one landslide predictions of the scale seen by Reagan, Bush I, Nixon, Johnson (>400 EV): Bandit73 prediction of Dem 443

Assuming we actaully know what we are doing, it will be interesting to see if the average predictions steadily move towards the final result, or will the average fluctuate with recent news and poll reuslts?

[zorkpolitics]

Yes, I believe that West Virginia will be a Bush state in 2004 because of the Dems strong environmental agenda.  After all, WV is a major coal mining area.

The reason Bush won WV in 2000 is because the Democrats have a strong environmental record!
The Clinton environmental policies severely affected the coal mining industry leading to mine shut downs, throwing people out of work, and a economic downturn.  
WV had the second biggest swing of any state from 1996 (Clinton by 15%) to Bush in 2000 (by 6%), a net 21% change.

[zorkpolitics]

Illegal Aliens could decide 2004 Winner?
Interesting article  in National Review:
http://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/latest.asp#019982
Since Congressional seats are apportioned based on populaiton in a state, not citizens, CA illegal immigrants and non-rsident aliens result in about 6 addional EV for CA.  Should the Democrat win by a few EV, one could make the argument that those EV were due to the non-resident and illegal aliens in CA.

[zorkpolitics]

Update Forum Predicitons:
We now have a total of 68 2004 Predicitions and  the average is 270 for Bush and 268 for the Dem.  This shows a *tightening* of the race since Dec 1 when the average prediction was 282 for Bush.  However, the average masks a continuing divergence of predicitons, with a range from Bush 459 to Bush only 137.

[zorkpolitics]

Award for most insane prediction goes to Bush Nation(R-TX) who has predicted that Bush will win every state(including DC), with over 90% in all but 3 states.

Agreed!  No Republican will win DC in my lifetime (perhaps a good argument why it shoudl never be a state?)

But just to be fair, Minnybean, Tends, and Lovebites prediction of a 538-0 Bush loss are almost as insane, given that Bush won 3 states in 2000 by greater than 40% over Gore.

[zorkpolitics]

Prediction update:  Over 300 predictions now entered!
158/306 predictors predict a Bush win with the average EV Bush = 291 and Democratic nominee = 247.  Although the average is still pretty close to the 2000 results, a bigger Bush  trend has developed over the last 100 predictions:
59/100 predict a Bush win, Bush  313 EV,  Democrat  225.  Most strikingly,  the number of landslide wins (>350 EV) predicted for Bush among the last 100 predictions is 36, almost 5 times the number of democratic landslides (7) predicted.  So at this point in time the collective wisdom of the Forum posters is for a modest Bush win.

[zorkpolitics]

I don't believe Edwards could carry NC, let alone any of the rest of the South.

Research 2000 poll of North Carolinians, 1/04:

Approve of presidential bid by Edwards: 55 % (vs. 39% last year)-- due to increase in number of Democrats in NC who support his bid.

Bush vs. Edwards: 53-40

Do you have a source/link for the NC info?