2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Siege40]

Hello Forum members, I'm new here and I have high hopes. Let me first say, I'm a foreigner. I'm an Ontario resident in Canada, so I appologize if I make any mistakes. I've made some educated guesses, and I think I did pretty well.

I think the Democrats will win ME, NH, VT, Mass., Conn., RI, NY, NJ, PA, OH, MI, DE, MD, DC, LA, IL, WI, IA, MN, OR, WA, and HI.

Republicans: VA, FL, AL, MS, TN, IN, AR, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD,ND, MT, WY, CO, NM, AZ, UT, ID, NV, CA, AK, and KY.

I think the swing states are WV, NC, GA, SC, and MO. I think that if Edwards is selected as VP the Democrats will win NC, SC and GA.

That's 246-D 225-R and 51- Swing. Who knows, maybe I'm completely nuts.

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[Siege40]

So maybe I'm crazy, the reason I picked the Republicans to win in California is that Schwarzanegger is doing pretty well out there, not to mention the Democrat Davis was thrown out on his ear, easily. I assumed that this support could continue. I don't know, I'm just a Canadian.

You're right, South Carolina is a stretch, so is Georgia, but you never can tell, the economy down there is pretty messed up, people have lost their jobs in the South too. Does being Southern mean you have to vote Republican? I don't think so, but to rule out the possibility of a Democratic showing in the South is likely a mistake. But I'm still new at this.

Siege40

[Siege40]

Thanks , Vorlon, for the info on the voter registrations.

So about this predictive model...

Siege40 - if Canada had won the war of 1812, we'd now have universal healthcare, one quarter of the present level of gun violence, and we'd currently hold the hockey gold medal, in other words, peace, order, and good government.  Oh well, we'll have to be happy with life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

However, your predictions are, to use the technical term, perquacky.

 

Had Canada won the War of 1812 they had no chance to annex America, you guys were too big to control even then. We would of checked American expansion and we likely would of annexed Michigan and Northern Maine, so they'd be fortunate enough to enjoy our good graces.

I'll do my best to make my estimate a little less perquacky. Thanks for the tips.

Siege40

[Siege40]

Do you think a similar attack on Madrid in America would lose the Republicans the White House? If so, where do you think the effects would be felt hardest, which states and why? Or do you believe that if there was a terror attack on that scale, that the Republicans would be doomed for re-election?

Siege40

[Siege40]

I'm really surpirsed by how many people think that another terror attack will not hurt the Republicans. From all I've seen Bush wants to run on his National Security policy, if there's another terror attack doesn't that prove that it is ineffective, make it a poor issue for him? In my mind it would at least neutralize the issue as a good point for the Republicans to a niether advantage nor disadvantage.

I agree if there's enough time he'll come out as a strong leader, but if not couldn't the electorate say. "Why is this happening again on your watch?"

Never the less, I also hope we don't have to find out...

Siege40

[Siege40]

Firstly I am not a Democrat, and I am not crying over the Republican numbers. Less than 50% is not something to be sad about. Many polls predict a loss for Bush, some for Kerry. Though your confidence, and capitalization is impressive, it isn't over until the fat lady sings.

Siege40

[Siege40]

I cannot believe what I'm hearing! You can't calously talk about changing a religion. You can't merely go, "Ya, well I don't like this or that, so let's chang it." This is the faith a people, you can't rewrite the religion. Mohammad was, from what I understand, a warrior. Therefore there will likely always be a strain of violence. The goal is to elminate the extremists, not the religion. That's my opinion, I don't know, I just figure if someone came in and wanted to root out a branch of Christianity a lot of people would have something to say. This will only spread hatred not peace.

Siege40

[Siege40]

I cannot believe what I'm hearing! You can't calously talk about changing a religion. You can't merely go, "Ya, well I don't like this or that, so let's chang it." This is the faith a people, you can't rewrite the religion. Mohammad was, from what I understand, a warrior. Therefore there will likely always be a strain of violence. The goal is to elminate the extremists, not the religion. That's my opinion, I don't know, I just figure if someone came in and wanted to root out a branch of Christianity a lot of people would have something to say. This will only spread hatred not peace.

Siege40

Well, if they insist on being 'warriors', then the only option is to fight them.  I think we can win easily.

While I love the implied talk of Genocide, what does this have to do with the 2004 election?

Siege40

[Siege40]

Genocide to win an election what a concept! What happens when you run out of groups of people?

Siege40

[Siege40]

Penal colonies are largely ineffective, the cost to outfit the area with food, for example Guam, would be tremendous, unless you plan not to feed them and let them being whole new meaning to "fresh meat" (term used to describe new arrivals to a prison). In reality the best idea would be to establish a gulag like system, but only one. See in Canada the idea works, we could build a prison-city in Northern Alberta and let them fend for themselves, but in the U.S. it's possible to survive long enough to escape to somewhere if you know where you're going. Best bet is probably New Mexico or Arizona. Merge all the federal penitentiaries into one prison city in the middle of the desert. Have food drop offs and water supplied, but not much else.

Though I object whole-heartedly with this idea, if you're going to talk about doing it, do it right.

Siege40

[Siege40]

Dunn, this discussion slipped far below sane a LONG time ago. Reply 1501.

Siege40

[Siege40]

The Republicans will win Pennsylvania and Louisiana? I don't know... I don't know much but that sounds a little crazy to me. And Kerry wins California but not the election? Madness is rife in this discussion.

Siege40

[Siege40]

I had a "dream" last night that Bush wins in a landslide. Though a few come true, I think that dream was biased lol.

That sounds like a nightmare to me...

Siege40

[Siege40]

Doesn't matter to me, I don't like Kerry, Bush or Nader very much. Any of them winning in a landslide is a bad idea. Minority Governments in Canada tend to work best, I don't know the equivalent in the U.S. though.

Siege40

[Siege40]

Yes going after the terrorists using a police method really works. I forgot, Clinton defeated Terrorism. lol Kerry is a Dove he may launch a few missles if we get attacked but he will use no force to destroy our enemies. Bush is making our future safer.

It sounds like your saying if Americans re-elect Bush they can expect more Middle East Campaigning. Where do the Republicans want to turn next? Iran? Syria? Egypt? Dare I hope Saudi Arabia?

I was reading a piece about Bush's 2000 campaign from what I read on his perspectives he wanted to run on a policy of essentially isolationism. I don't know, that's what I got out of the message.

Siege40

[Siege40]

Yes going after the terrorists using a police method really works. I forgot, Clinton defeated Terrorism. lol Kerry is a Dove he may launch a few missles if we get attacked but he will use no force to destroy our enemies. Bush is making our future safer.

It sounds like your saying if Americans re-elect Bush they can expect more Middle East Campaigning. Where do the Republicans want to turn next? Iran? Syria? Egypt? Dare I hope Saudi Arabia?

I was reading a piece about Bush's 2000 campaign from what I read on his perspectives he wanted to run on a policy of essentially isolationism. I don't know, that's what I got out of the message.

Siege40

I would say Iran or Syria would be the next ones. I agree Saudi Arabia should be on the list, but it's never going to happen. Bushs' 2000 campaign issues on National Security are irrelevant now. That was before 9/11. The nations of the Middle East need to be enlightened.

I was just curious is all.

Siege40

[Siege40]

How did Kerry win the Democratic Primaries when such sensible people as Gustaf, Miamiu and myself don't like him? I'm really curious how Kerry managed it, it really seems like the worst fluke imaginable. Does anyone know how he turned it around? I have yet to hear a reasonable answer from the media.

Siege40

[Siege40]

That's my point Kerry won... because he won... you can understand my massive sense of confusion. :S

Siege40

[Siege40]

Yes going after the terrorists using a police method really works. I forgot, Clinton defeated Terrorism. lol Kerry is a Dove he may launch a few missles if we get attacked but he will use no force to destroy our enemies. Bush is making our future safer.

It sounds like your saying if Americans re-elect Bush they can expect more Middle East Campaigning. Where do the Republicans want to turn next? Iran? Syria? Egypt? Dare I hope Saudi Arabia?

I was reading a piece about Bush's 2000 campaign from what I read on his perspectives he wanted to run on a policy of essentially isolationism. I don't know, that's what I got out of the message.

Siege40

I would say Iran or Syria would be the next ones. I agree Saudi Arabia should be on the list, but it's never going to happen. Bushs' 2000 campaign issues on National Security are irrelevant now. That was before 9/11. The nations of the Middle East need to be enlightened.

Saudi Arabi is currently working on a number of human rights reforms, but I think that that's only because they could read the writing on the wall.

We need to relieve them of that oil - after all we (England and the US) found it all, and it was stolen ('nationalized') I believe in the late sixties.

Ya, the Saudi's introduced 'Democratic Reform' in the 70s. We can all see what wonders it has done. They were going to introduce a system of reform starting with municiple democratic elections in '74. It never even got that far. I would not expect any better this time around.

Siege40

[Siege40]

I think that if Bush is re-elected, there will be an anti-GOP "movement" if you will, and after huge losses in 2006 (compatable to 1994 for the Dems), they will be forced to go moderate for '08 (Giuliani, McCain.)

Giuliani has a lot of skeletons in his closet, I'm not sure something like the Federal ticket is the place for him, a Senator or Congressman sure. McCain is a moderate right? If so I like the guy. I've seen him in interviews, he seems personable unlike some Presidents and Presidential nominees.

Siege40

[Siege40]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That is very true, I know a LOT of blacks who are against  interracial marriage.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

By that do you mean people who while they support the legal right for races to intermarry, they themselves have no plans to do so, and maybe go as far to not want their friends to do so, or do you mean people that want it illegal, again?

Siege40

[Siege40]

Sigh, I better get this out of the way now, as a resident of the GTA is it my responsibility to say this at least once. The Devil Rays suck, they will lose. Go Leafs Go.

(I know it should be "Leaves" but try chanting that, it doesn't work)

Please god let this be the year... we've waited so long. I believe 1967 was the last time we won. Perhaps the fates are smiling on Toronto this year.

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[Siege40]

I just wanted to point this out because I had a startling revelation in History Class today, is it me or does General/President Andrew Jackson and Senetor John Kerry look similar?

They keep pointing out Kerry's likeness to Kennedy, maybe Jackson would be a better idea, lol.

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[Siege40]

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

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[Siege40]

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

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Did you mean 'lose' for one of those?

I meant to say. 'but Kerry win Iowa.'

What's the latest poll out of Iowa say about the Dems vs. The GOP?

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