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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 817401 times)
M
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« on: December 15, 2003, 09:27:54 pm »
« edited: December 15, 2003, 09:29:24 pm by M »

Approximate tally of Bush against Dems with the following platforms:

Bush is a good guy. I respect the War on Terror, believe in it, and will continue it. Tax cuts are god too. Still, I disagree with the Medicare reform bill as it currently stands.

Bayh: 55%
Bush: 45%

Bush has mismanaged the war which I support in principle. Repeal the tax cuts!

Lieberman: 52%
Bush: 48%

Give peace a chance! No war! Ever! I don't care how many Americans they blow upo, they're victims of society, and they have a different moral system! Long live Al Qaedaaaaaaaaaaa!

Bush 53%
Dean 47%

More taxes! We need more money so we can build more bureaucracy so we will need more money so we will build more bureaucracy so we will need more.....

Bush 55%
Dean 45%

The sky is orange. In the middle of the day. Really. I'm serious. Vote for me.

Bush: 57%
Dean 43%

Boing!
Bush: 60%
Rubber Ball: 40%

Just so you know what we're up against. There are so many interests that just HAVE to vote dem, the slightest bit of sense on there part would carry the day.
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2003, 11:08:09 pm »

I did not ascribe those words or even thoughts to Dean, you will notice. Just posted it as a hypothetical platform. What would I be ranting about, anyway?

Yeah, 2000 election has been given too much importance in terms of permanent trends. Next years map will look very, very different. Mwa ha ha ha ha!
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #2 on: December 18, 2003, 12:21:09 pm »

No. Most democrats predicting a victory see it as a repeat of Bush-Gore, with a few more states swinging dem. GOPers are much more likely to predict huge win, or even (as I do) a landslide.
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2003, 01:53:14 pm »

Wait, I think I just gt a joke by John! See, if the emocRAts are democARts, then you put states in them like in a grocery store.... or.... something....

Maybe Limberman means that he's physically fit, ie fiscally fit! Ha ha, good one, John. And Shapapatron sounds techno, maybe that is an ironic jab at Sharpton's modernity, ie, really he's a throwback to the past. And Swwager souds like a sucking noise, meaing he's pulling the California center away from dems. Hey, John is pretty funny! Anyone want to have a go at interpreting some of his other jokes?
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2004, 02:31:16 am »

The GOP may not necessarily be seen as a "racist" party like Hillary Clinton calls it by people my age and a little older (late teens, early twenties). I certainly have never met an openly racist GOPer, and I live in Texas. You here the race card played more often in election by dems, and I don't think anyone wh didn't live through the civil rights movement and its aftermath finds it easy to see Affirmative Action as anything other than racial quotas. In fact, AA is one of only two big reasons I am not a Democrat (the other is Foreign/defense policy), as I am fairly liberal socially. It brings up images of the racist antisemitic quotas that kept Jews out of the Ivy League in the '30s (and led to the establishment of Bradeis), and the immigration quotas that kept us locked in the Nazi death camps in the prelude to WW2. Even things like the Trent Lott thing don't really mean much to most young people, but you cant miss Al Sharpton and the Crown Heights Pogrom, or the Tawana Brawley deal.

Also, these theorists completely misunderstand the Hispanic population, which is trending GOP. Most of the second + generationers and many of the first generationers are very culturally American, and anyway Mexico will within ten years be a fully first world nation so the demographic trend will change. The radically lefty and often terrifyingly Nazi-like Hispanic "leaders" like the Mecha group and the New Aztlan stuff are increasingly unpopular outside of some college campuses. Do these theorists actually know any Hispanics? I do- I live in Texas, And they have it all wrong.

Most if not all young people are diversity minded, true. In fact, almost everyone I know in my age group accepts Indians, Chinese, Salvadorans, whoever as fellows without even really thinking about it. Does that mean they are necessarily thought police-guilt over the white man's evil-PC freaks? Absolutely not, these views are rare beyond the ACLU and Berkeley. Is there a natural impulse to refuse to consider the GOP on "race card" grounds? Not usually, no.

The actual trends today are quite different. Some (Increasing voter differences among Hispanics, Jews; increasing percentage of shareholders; return oif freign poicy to center stage; lefty northern states shrinking, rightist Southern states groing; etc.) favor the GOP. The big trends, however, are towards split ticket voting and decreasing party identification (and, unfortunately, decreasing interest in politics and lower voter turnouts). These trends mean that whoever siezes the center by American standards on the most issues wins these days. This year that is Bush, who has co-opted much of the dem policy agenda as deftly as Clinton did to the GOP.

The best chance the dems have to beat Bush is with Edwards or Lieberman, preferably both on the same ticket. I'd even onsider that particular ticket.
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #5 on: January 27, 2004, 04:17:36 pm »

I have to say FNC gives great analysis whether you agree with them or not. In my opinion, Brit Hume is one of the best and most evenhanded in reporting people on cable news today.
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #6 on: February 01, 2004, 12:28:46 am »

Satellite imaging indicates that the Chinese PLA has built an army of at least five million men near Tijuana in Baja California. Initial reports indicate they plan to seize Hollywood by force, kidnap Jackie Chan, and create a Mandarin-language sequel to the Drunken Master, which will then be beamed across the free world. Details on this alarming turn of events to follow.
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #7 on: February 01, 2004, 02:21:44 pm »

No kidding! I thought that we now had the worst economy of all time ever and people were fondly remembering their hunter-gatherer days?

Oh wait, I've been listening to too many Demcratic candidate speeches.
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2004, 12:46:34 am »

And the corker: we have Nolan Ryan.
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2004, 02:38:53 am »

I like to play observer games as Harry Browne, where I just sit and watch. I tries running Sharpton-Dean against Bush-Powell. Sharpton was leading at start in more states than Gore won, including Missouri and Tennesse. Eventually the game told me, "Get the full version if you want to beat Al Sharpton!" After noticing that Lieberman, Sharpton, Dean, and Kerry all do about the same, I decided the game wasn't the most accurate.

Say, if anyone has the full game, what additional candidates does it let you use?
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #10 on: February 17, 2004, 11:40:57 pm »

What about the curse of the Caytona 500?

John Kerry: "we don;t need a president who says, gentlemen, start your engines. We need a president who says, America, start your economy!"

Cute. But the last thing you do when Bush has an apealing photo op to a swing demographic, is ridicule the event itself. Kerry needs a veep that will make people forget he's there, or else he's doomed.

Or you could just nominate Edwards.
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M
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Posts: 2,491


« Reply #11 on: February 18, 2004, 12:58:01 am »

Good old Fox. When Tweedle beetles battle with paddles in a puddle in a bottle on a poodle eating noodles, then what is that called?
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