In the post to which I previously refered you to, I briefly listed numerous criteria which I used in developing my projection.
Due to limitations on the length of posts, I did not elaborate on the methodology of each of these criteria.
I will begin listed them in order, starting with the key economic statistic, "unemployment rate."
If you review the unemployment rate statistics back to ther 1932 election (they are not available for prior Presidential elections), you will see that every single President renominated by his party forreelection with an unemployment rate of less that 7.1% has been reelected.
In those Presidential elections during the period involved where the incumbent was renominated and had an unemployment rate of 7.1% or higher, in a majority of the cases, they were defeated (the exceptions are FDR in 36 and 40, and Reagan in 84).
Based on a statistical analysis of this data, it seems to me that Bush would be reelected by a margin of 4.48% or higher.
How does this change if you use change in unemployment rate instead of the unemployment rate?
