2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wow! The Dems pick up Utah and the GOP picks up Rhode Island

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a better EV calculator on John Edward's website(!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Including Sharpton

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Um... did you just say that West Virginia is one of Bush's safest states???

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think that it'll fluctuate a lot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How much do you actually know about either WV or Miners?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

2000 was a fluke. The Dems did very badly in Appalachia in 2000 due to:
a) Kyoto
b) "Modernisation"(which has got worse recently).
c) Guns

Look at recent results in Appalachia.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

NC's economic situation is looking bleak at present, and it'll get worse if the E.U imposes tariffs on textiles as revenge for the tariffs on steel.

SC is a Dem no no. SC gave Clinton under 40% in 1992(but, I hear you cry, so did FL. True but Perot ran well in FL) and is not going to go Dem until they rebuild in SC's northern counties.

Don't rule out GA, it's prone to sudden and unpredictible swings in opinion.
But because of the above don't predict a pick-up either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Actually "John" is a shortend name. He was baptised as "Johnny".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes... I was wondering about that...
I just can't see the GOP winning 80% in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia etc...

Or the Dems winning 80% in Illinois, New York, New Jersey etc...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tennessee is going to be close(again) and is certainly going to be worth a watch.
I'm curious as wether or the interesting voting patterns displayed in the state in the 2002 gubernatorial election will be repeated.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tennesse is almost always very close and has been since the Civil War ended(although lots of people in Eastern Tennesse still seem to belive that a Democrat-Confederate government rules TN from Richmond, VA and that Abe' Lincon's troops have yet to reach them... but enough of that)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

No northern Democrat has carried Tenn since '48 (border state Truman from Mo.).  The last 4 northern dems have gotten killed - Humphrey 68 actually finished 3rd in that election.  McGovern lost by 38.  Mondale lost by 18.  Dukakis lost by 16.  

Dean has as much chance of making Tenn competitive as Bush has of making a run in Massachusetts.  It aint gonna happen in either case.

1968 is a bad example and you know it.
But the Dems have yet to choose their candidate anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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I'm getting at the presence of a certain George Corley Wallace running as an independent.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not true... in the Upper South areas that went for Wallace in '68 now usually go Dem, and in the Deep South... well most of the Deep South went VERY strongly for Goldwater in '64...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interestingly, not much change is predicted from 2000... only WV (as of this writing) changes from Bush > 50% to Bush > 40%.

Dave

I think that may be because the 2000 election is treated as if it was permanant by a lot of people on the internet...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...or because GOP posters have been posting big GOP wins while Dem posters have been posting big Dem wins with their being a few more GOP posters than Dems posters...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What happend to being objective?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this the ghost of G.P.Nye?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Blair won't have any trouble getting re-elected.
Trust me on this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Agreed, although I doubt he would have any serious problems with Dean.
Kuchinich on the other hand...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Although it has to be noted that the Swedish "right" would be considered as leftish is most other countries!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I agree with bullmoose's analysis of PA(one question: do you think that any House members might be threatend by the steel tariffs? And another: why is the strong GOP area in the centre of PA called the "T"? It looks more like a "Z")

Bush would struggle to keep WV anyway("No child behind" f***** up WV budget), but the Tariff's could be a killer for him there.

Ohio is a more conservative state than PA or WV, but it was close last time and a GOP congressman has said it's a tossup so I suppose it is.

Another state that the Tariffs issue could hurt Bush in is Arkansas(seriously!), but he's probably givin AR up already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Nader only won 5% in MN last time because of LaDuke, who seems to be popular in the North of the state.