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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 768140 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: November 13, 2003, 04:50:24 am »

Wow! The Dems pick up Utah and the GOP picks up Rhode Island Wink
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2003, 01:17:38 pm »

There's a better EV calculator on John Edward's website(!)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2003, 01:06:37 pm »

Including Sharpton Wink
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2003, 11:56:44 am »

Um... did you just say that West Virginia is one of Bush's safest states???
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2003, 09:52:00 am »

I think that it'll fluctuate a lot.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2003, 03:37:39 pm »

How much do you actually know about either WV or Miners?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2003, 01:05:56 pm »

2000 was a fluke. The Dems did very badly in Appalachia in 2000 due to:
a) Kyoto
b) "Modernisation"(which has got worse recently).
c) Guns

Look at recent results in Appalachia.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2003, 03:43:15 pm »

NC's economic situation is looking bleak at present, and it'll get worse if the E.U imposes tariffs on textiles as revenge for the tariffs on steel.

SC is a Dem no no. SC gave Clinton under 40% in 1992(but, I hear you cry, so did FL. True but Perot ran well in FL) and is not going to go Dem until they rebuild in SC's northern counties.

Don't rule out GA, it's prone to sudden and unpredictible swings in opinion.
But because of the above don't predict a pick-up either.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2003, 12:42:42 pm »

Actually "John" is a shortend name. He was baptised as "Johnny".
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2003, 09:04:07 am »

Yes... I was wondering about that...
I just can't see the GOP winning 80% in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia etc...

Or the Dems winning 80% in Illinois, New York, New Jersey etc...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2003, 06:09:20 am »

Tennessee is going to be close(again) and is certainly going to be worth a watch.
I'm curious as wether or the interesting voting patterns displayed in the state in the 2002 gubernatorial election will be repeated.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2003, 02:55:54 pm »

Tennesse is almost always very close and has been since the Civil War ended(although lots of people in Eastern Tennesse still seem to belive that a Democrat-Confederate government rules TN from Richmond, VA and that Abe' Lincon's troops have yet to reach them... but enough of that)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2003, 11:17:23 am »

No northern Democrat has carried Tenn since '48 (border state Truman from Mo.).  The last 4 northern dems have gotten killed - Humphrey 68 actually finished 3rd in that election.  McGovern lost by 38.  Mondale lost by 18.  Dukakis lost by 16.  

Dean has as much chance of making Tenn competitive as Bush has of making a run in Massachusetts.  It aint gonna happen in either case.

1968 is a bad example and you know it.
But the Dems have yet to choose their candidate anyway.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2003, 04:27:28 am »

Quote
Not a bad example at all.  I don't know where you get that.  It is entirely reflective of  the weakness of every other Northern lib Dem running in Tenn since then.  As a matter of fact, 68  was CLOSE compared to elections since.  McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis got drubbed worse.

I'm getting at the presence of a certain George Corley Wallace running as an independent.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2003, 08:44:58 am »

Not true... in the Upper South areas that went for Wallace in '68 now usually go Dem, and in the Deep South... well most of the Deep South went VERY strongly for Goldwater in '64...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #15 on: December 14, 2003, 05:48:33 am »

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2003, 09:35:32 am »


Interestingly, not much change is predicted from 2000... only WV (as of this writing) changes from Bush > 50% to Bush > 40%.

Dave

I think that may be because the 2000 election is treated as if it was permanant by a lot of people on the internet...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #17 on: December 18, 2003, 04:44:28 am »

...or because GOP posters have been posting big GOP wins while Dem posters have been posting big Dem wins with their being a few more GOP posters than Dems posters...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: December 18, 2003, 03:23:17 pm »

What happend to being objective?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2003, 10:27:00 am »

Is this the ghost of G.P.Nye?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: December 21, 2003, 05:25:39 am »

Blair won't have any trouble getting re-elected.
Trust me on this.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2003, 10:54:04 am »

Agreed, although I doubt he would have any serious problems with Dean.
Kuchinich on the other hand...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #22 on: December 22, 2003, 12:05:37 pm »

Although it has to be noted that the Swedish "right" would be considered as leftish is most other countries!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #23 on: December 24, 2003, 04:20:55 am »

I agree with bullmoose's analysis of PA(one question: do you think that any House members might be threatend by the steel tariffs? And another: why is the strong GOP area in the centre of PA called the "T"? It looks more like a "Z")

Bush would struggle to keep WV anyway("No child behind" f***** up WV budget), but the Tariff's could be a killer for him there.

Ohio is a more conservative state than PA or WV, but it was close last time and a GOP congressman has said it's a tossup so I suppose it is.

Another state that the Tariffs issue could hurt Bush in is Arkansas(seriously!), but he's probably givin AR up already.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #24 on: December 26, 2003, 06:34:47 am »

Nader only won 5% in MN last time because of LaDuke, who seems to be popular in the North of the state.
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