Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 23, 2019, 07:32:16 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 767456 times)
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« on: November 13, 2003, 10:37:09 am »

Wow! The Dems pick up Utah and the GOP picks up Rhode Island Wink

I screwed up.  Just look at the ev cout for now and i will get around to changing it.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2003, 10:37:40 am »

Well I seem to be obsessed with colors today. :)Darthkosh you seem to have mixed up Red and Blue states by assigning Red to the GOp and vice versa.

I was much shocked to see your map before I realised this Cheesy

I just relized I did that.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2003, 01:53:07 pm »

I fixed it and it looks like Bush won't win Rhode Island.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2003, 02:52:49 pm »

There's a better EV calculator on John Edward's website(!)
What is the web-address for Jonathan Edwards?

www.edwards2004.org
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2003, 02:23:58 pm »

Tennessee is going to be close(again) and is certainly going to be worth a watch.
I'm curious as wether or the interesting voting patterns displayed in the state in the 2002 gubernatorial election will be repeated.

The Rep gov was unpopular and it affect the race.  I believe Tenn will not be all that close.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2003, 02:52:01 pm »

The Election will be Deacied by the People with 53% to Bush & Dean 45%

Bush 54%
Dean 45%
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2003, 03:56:48 pm »

Well Yeah but the most I could say about either state is that the Democratic margin will be smaller than in 2000 (unless, as I have repeatedly mentioned, its a landslide year either way)

The recent gubernatorial elections signify a better organized state party which can turn out their base and that means a larger republican vote but not near a majority in either case.

Arnold and Lingle run as LOCAL republicans and actually almost as Independents. A LOT of their voters would never consider voting for Bush- Just like I keep assuring people that the recent Dem victory in La. does not mean even a marginal change at the national level. The antipathy towards the national democratic party is as strong as ever. Same for these states. If we are looking at a reasonably close election, they should be solid democrat.

And if at all I agree to change that I might change California because of a huge uncommitted if left-tending independent electorate who could TECHNICALLY vote GOP. Hawaii has a much stronger democratic base.

I wouldn't put too much stock in Hawaii's record as a bell-weather. I would caution against using bellwethers that didn’t work in 2000. For example Delaware has voted for the winning candidate for the TEN elections from 1960 through 1996. In 2000 it voted for the loser and by a huge margin. Proponents of its bell-weather status failed to note it had become increasingly democratic and only retained bellwether status in the 90's because the democrats happened to win both the elections held later that decade.  



Ryan:  both California and Hawai'i (only my predictions) are gonna be lean Democrat unlike strong because of Arnold Schwarzenegger and recent Republican gubernatorial grabs in Hawai'i.  Just "hunches."  In addition, Hawai'i has a history of voting for the "right guy" (i.e. the winner of elections), but they've been Democrat for quite a few years now.  Again, a hunch...I can't see a DEVASTATING Democrat victory in either state.

Like i saind in the wrong govenors thread.  Local Politics.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2003, 12:41:55 pm »

Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41
Shut up! You always say Dean will win. And you give nothing to back it up. If you're going to say Dean will win, thats fine. But I notice you spread this in all the threads, as if Dean is already nominated. Explain yourself, and I won't be so mean.

Dean has the support of major unions and the ultra left.  The will help him win the nom.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #8 on: December 08, 2003, 11:34:40 am »

I'd say I've seen analysists predict the black turnout in SC could be as high as 49%


I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

Biggest Dem voting block in SC.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2003, 07:48:23 pm »

IMO, all but 12 states are tossup at this stage.  There is just too much that can happen in 11 months.

Maybe ten are toossups.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2003, 09:14:25 am »

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South

Let him be.  He is not going to win it.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #11 on: December 14, 2003, 08:35:08 pm »

He should really concentrate on holding onto the Gore states. But by reaching out to the South, although he won't win it, he may just make himself moderate enough to win votes in the battleground states in the Midwest and West.

By reaching into the unwinable for Dean he open himself to loose the close Gore states or more.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2003, 09:16:04 am »

Bring on DEAn, esp after today!  

That is if the Dems don't dump him now too.

They  won't dump him they love him.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2003, 05:04:47 pm »

Yep but so do we Smiley; just different reasons.



True.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #14 on: December 18, 2003, 09:06:01 am »

...or because GOP posters have been posting big GOP wins while Dem posters have been posting big Dem wins with their being a few more GOP posters than Dems posters...

Maybe or maybe not.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #15 on: December 18, 2003, 01:10:52 pm »

No. Most democrats predicting a victory see it as a repeat of Bush-Gore, with a few more states swinging dem. GOPers are much more likely to predict huge win, or even (as I do) a landslide.

With Dean as the nom it will be a big win for Bush.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #16 on: December 19, 2003, 01:44:03 pm »

I still think that Dean will not get the turnout from the middle Gore gotten.

PA Polls out this week have Bush over 50% vs everyone and 49% vs Dean.  

So yes Bush can still Carry PA , it was very close in 2000 and without PA, Dems are done.


Ok, I'll take a stab at objectivity.  The Dem nominee will have a much tougher time keeping the states Al Gore won by 1/2 of one percent - Wisconsin, Oregon, New Mexico, and Iowa -  than George Bush will have protecting his closest states of Florida and New Hampshire.  Bush will run much tougher in California and New york than he did in 2000.  He won't win those two states but will force Dems to spend resources there they didn't have to spend in 2000.  

If Dean is the nominee, Bush carries Minn, Pa, as well.
Bush carry Pennsylvania? After lifting the foreign steel tariffs? That would be quite an accomplishment.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #17 on: December 19, 2003, 01:50:39 pm »

People will chose who they want to put States in the bush Side or Democarts Side


Who said they wouldn't?
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #18 on: December 19, 2003, 01:56:59 pm »

Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

Anybody can make a joke whenever they want in here.  It's not against the rules.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #19 on: December 19, 2003, 08:57:37 pm »

I find it hard to believe John has a problem spelling, it is far too contrived! I mean Joe Limberman?!

It is possible that Joe was a gymnist.  Smiley
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #20 on: December 19, 2003, 11:53:22 pm »

Because with our electiuons we will rule the world.

Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #21 on: December 20, 2003, 08:00:27 am »

Because with our electiuons we will rule the world.

Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

America is more important than most European states. Also, it is a matter on national ego. Americans have a tradition of not caring and not knowing about anything else besided their own country, living in their own little world, which occurs in most big states (China, France, Japan, the UK, etc). This works because you are big enough. It wouldn't work for Swedes since we live in a so small country!

Unlike Europe, America is practically an island that is why we only care about us.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #22 on: December 26, 2003, 12:07:21 pm »

Very unlikely that Bush would carry a Democrat leaning state by 15%
Stop being partizan please...

BTW Dean has not won a single vote yet.


Clinton won the state because he was from it.  With Dean as the nom  Bush will take by at least 10 percent.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #23 on: December 26, 2003, 12:39:03 pm »

Evidence? Dean hasn't said anything nasty about Bill has he?

Other then he's republican-lite no.  What i said was that the only reason Clinton won Ark was because he was from it.
Logged
DarthKosh
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 902


« Reply #24 on: December 26, 2003, 03:56:06 pm »

Award for most insane prediction goes to Bush Nation(R-TX) who has predicted that Bush will win every state(including DC), with over 90% in all but 3 states.

Agreed!  No Republican will win DC in my lifetime (perhaps a good argument why it shoudl never be a state?)

But just to be fair, Minnybean, Tends, and Lovebites prediction of a 538-0 Bush loss are almost as insane, given that Bush won 3 states in 2000 by greater than 40% over Gore.

If Bush gets a five to ten point swing in his direction it will be a lanslide.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC