WA: Strategic Vision: Cantwell(D) has substantial lead on McGavick(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Washington Senator by Strategic Vision on 2006-10-29

Summary: D: 52%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Cubby]

Could someone fill me in on how this race went from a possible tossup early this year to a clear win for Cantwell now? She's still in the low 50's in all the recent polls. Did the McGavick campaign implode?

Also, what are the chances that Cantwell will win swing places like Spokane and Clark Counties.

[ottermax]

Washington has become very polarized in recent years. Most voters were already decided months before the election based on partisian lines. The race only seemed like a tossup because she won such a close election in 2000, and the gubernatorial election in 2004 was extremely close.

My state is split strongly by East and West. If you looked ten years ago, Locke and Murray were winning counties in Eastern Washington easily, but the last time a Democrat won a county in Eastern Washington for a major race was 2000 when Locke was reelected. If Murray couldn't win any counties East of the Cascades, then Cantwell probably won't.

Cantwell probably could win Clark, but it would be difficult, but I would find it more likely than any counties in Eastern Washington (although there is always room for a surprise).

[CultureKing]

Washington has become very polarized in recent years. Most voters were already decided months before the election based on partisian lines. The race only seemed like a tossup because she won such a close election in 2000, and the gubernatorial election in 2004 was extremely close.

My state is split strongly by East and West. If you looked ten years ago, Locke and Murray were winning counties in Eastern Washington easily, but the last time a Democrat won a county in Eastern Washington for a major race was 2000 when Locke was reelected. If Murray couldn't win any counties East of the Cascades, then Cantwell probably won't.

Cantwell probably could win Clark, but it would be difficult, but I would find it more likely than any counties in Eastern Washington (although there is always room for a surprise).

Agreed Washington has become extremely east-west polar, though the possibility of winning Spokane county is possible, I wouldnt be too suprised if Cantwell won Clark this year (Kerry only lost it by about 1-2% and Murray won it in the same year)

[Cubby]

The split between the coast and the interior is very noticable. I guess Eastern Washington has more in common with the Idaho Panhandle than the Seattle Metro area.

Now if Cantwell wins Lewis County, we'll know this is a truly historic election. We once had a discussion on here about why that was the only place in Western Washington to vote consistently Republican.

I just looked at the WA Senate and Gov. maps and it seems that Spokane and a few ID border counties can vote Dem. on occasion, but the rural central part of the state never does. Not only was there a geographical split but all the elections seem to be narrow/moderate Democrat wins. I assume this is simply due to the greater population along the coast. There were never any landslides, just 50-58% wins.

[Downwinder]

Seems like Cantwell is consolidating undecideds to her as the election nears.