Bush vs. Goldwater in NYC?
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  Bush vs. Goldwater in NYC?
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BRTD
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« on: June 22, 2004, 08:06:54 PM »

believe it or not, Goldwater actually did better than Bush did in 2000 in NYC. Shows how far to the left NYC's been shifting. Think the same will happen this year? I'm betting that yes, Goldwater will once again beat Bush's totals. Also here's a reality check to anyone who thinks Bush has a snowball's chance in hell of winning California. Bush did worse than Goldwater in Orange county! Kind of tough to see any Republican winning California with Orange county doing that relatively poor.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2004, 08:08:25 PM »

What was Goldwater's % in NYC?
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BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2004, 08:16:43 PM »

around 26%.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2004, 08:17:28 PM »

Bush will get slightly less than that.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2004, 09:34:37 PM »

Beet-

New York CITY
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Beet
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« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2004, 09:38:57 PM »

Oops. I thought it was NY state, nvm.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2004, 09:44:02 PM »

In New York state, Bush will do better...a lot better, actually. He got around 40% in 2000 I think.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2004, 09:46:19 PM »

nyc is migrating left, yet they havent elected a democrat mayor since 1989.  
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2004, 09:46:20 PM »

In New York state, Bush will do better...a lot better, actually. He got around 40% in 2000 I think.

He got 36%, expect him to get 42% at the most
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2004, 09:48:02 PM »

I'm not saying that Bush will do a lot better than what he got in 2000. I was saying he'd do a lot better than Goldwater did in '64.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2004, 09:49:45 PM »

I'm not saying that Bush will do a lot better than what he got in 2000. I was saying he'd do a lot better than Goldwater did in '64.

Well, of course, Goldwater got blown out nationwide
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2004, 09:57:09 PM »

by the way, what is david dinkins up to these days?

at least ed koch writes books that no one reads, but i havent heard from dinkins.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2004, 10:37:54 PM »

Yeah Ed Koch is supporting Bush for President this year. How does a guy go from backing Hillary for Senate in 2000 to supporting Bush in '04?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2004, 10:39:42 PM »

ed is a little looney.

i could have sworn that he was a rudy backer in 93.  now he trashes rudy.

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Smash255
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« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2004, 11:00:05 PM »

Bush will probably get right around that 35% again in NY state
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MarkDel
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« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2004, 11:35:21 PM »

believe it or not, Goldwater actually did better than Bush did in 2000 in NYC. Shows how far to the left NYC's been shifting. Think the same will happen this year? I'm betting that yes, Goldwater will once again beat Bush's totals. Also here's a reality check to anyone who thinks Bush has a snowball's chance in hell of winning California. Bush did worse than Goldwater in Orange county! Kind of tough to see any Republican winning California with Orange county doing that relatively poor.

Better Red than Dead,

You may want to consider the overtly simplistic nature of comparing New York City in 1964 to New York City in 2000, or Orange County in 1964 to Orange County in 2000. Think about what immigration has done to the demographics of those two areas in that 36-year period...you are comparing apples and...not even oranges...it's not even in the same food group.
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Smash255
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« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2004, 11:40:39 PM »

nyc is migrating left, yet they havent elected a democrat mayor since 1989.  

Guliani is a liberal, Bloomberg is fairly liberal also along with the fact that Green ran a horrific campaign are reasons why the Reps have won the last 3 mayoral races in NYC.  Someone who is in the middle or right of the Repubican party would NEVER win the mayor's race, only way to win is to be on the liberal wing of the party as Guliani & Bloomberg are
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cwelsch
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« Reply #17 on: June 23, 2004, 01:41:39 AM »

Bloomberg won because of Giuliani/9-11 and because Sharpton's candidate boycott the election after losing the primary.
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BRTD
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« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2004, 09:45:12 AM »

believe it or not, Goldwater actually did better than Bush did in 2000 in NYC. Shows how far to the left NYC's been shifting. Think the same will happen this year? I'm betting that yes, Goldwater will once again beat Bush's totals. Also here's a reality check to anyone who thinks Bush has a snowball's chance in hell of winning California. Bush did worse than Goldwater in Orange county! Kind of tough to see any Republican winning California with Orange county doing that relatively poor.

Better Red than Dead,

You may want to consider the overtly simplistic nature of comparing New York City in 1964 to New York City in 2000, or Orange County in 1964 to Orange County in 2000. Think about what immigration has done to the demographics of those two areas in that 36-year period...you are comparing apples and...not even oranges...it's not even in the same food group.

no it makes sense. In the case of Orange County, that's an area the Republicans need big time to win in California. They need high turnout and high margins. And if Bush is doing worse there than a guy who was devestated nationwide, it's pretty obvious that's not going to happen.

As for NY State, that's totally irrevelant, Goldwater got totally blown out of the water in the state on a whole but for some reason did relatively well for a Republican in NYC. If Republicans can't do even better than Goldwater in NYC, that doesn't bode well for them in the future huh?

Also Walter, you realize that the NY city council is something like 27 Democrats, 3 Republicans? Are you going to argue now that Massachusetts is starting to turn Republican since their last 4 governors have been Republicans, yet their legislature remains 80% Democratic?

Might I also add another reason Bloomberg won: his entire campaign was basically that he was a former Democrat.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2004, 10:12:17 AM »

im arguing that the dems are pretty weak when they cant win the mayorship of ny or the governorship of massachusetts.

by the way, if rudy is a liberal, why were the libs bellyaching about him (pre-2001)?  their whining was so loud i could hear it all the way down south:

'our homeless are freezing to death and starving blah blah blah'

'giuliani runs a police state blah blah blah'

'rudy and the police department uses racist tactics blah blah blah'

'rudy uses union busting tactics blah blah blah'

'rudy is treating window washers like criminals...balh blah blah'

now in the wake of 9/11 and his high approval numbers, the libs have taken a liking to rudy.  but for 8 years they were singing a different song, led by their choir masters green and sharpton.
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Smash255
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« Reply #20 on: June 23, 2004, 02:10:36 PM »

im arguing that the dems are pretty weak when they cant win the mayorship of ny or the governorship of massachusetts.

by the way, if rudy is a liberal, why were the libs bellyaching about him (pre-2001)?  their whining was so loud i could hear it all the way down south:

'our homeless are freezing to death and starving blah blah blah'

'giuliani runs a police state blah blah blah'

'rudy and the police department uses racist tactics blah blah blah'

'rudy uses union busting tactics blah blah blah'

'rudy is treating window washers like criminals...balh blah blah'

now in the wake of 9/11 and his high approval numbers, the libs have taken a liking to rudy.  but for 8 years they were singing a different song, led by their choir masters green and sharpton.

Do some liberals have problems with Rudy??  Yes

But lets look at some of Rudy's positions shall we

Pro Gay Rights
pro Choice
VERY Pro Gun Control

Those are typical Republican views aren't they?Huh?
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MODU
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« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2004, 02:12:40 PM »


I would be for Gun restrictions myself if I was the Mayor of NYC.  Too many guns are already on the streets.  Why encourage more by easing restrictions?  Now, for the rest of NY, let the NRA have fun.
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MarkDel
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« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2004, 09:24:22 PM »

believe it or not, Goldwater actually did better than Bush did in 2000 in NYC. Shows how far to the left NYC's been shifting. Think the same will happen this year? I'm betting that yes, Goldwater will once again beat Bush's totals. Also here's a reality check to anyone who thinks Bush has a snowball's chance in hell of winning California. Bush did worse than Goldwater in Orange county! Kind of tough to see any Republican winning California with Orange county doing that relatively poor.

Better Red than Dead,

You may want to consider the overtly simplistic nature of comparing New York City in 1964 to New York City in 2000, or Orange County in 1964 to Orange County in 2000. Think about what immigration has done to the demographics of those two areas in that 36-year period...you are comparing apples and...not even oranges...it's not even in the same food group.

no it makes sense. In the case of Orange County, that's an area the Republicans need big time to win in California. They need high turnout and high margins. And if Bush is doing worse there than a guy who was devestated nationwide, it's pretty obvious that's not going to happen.

As for NY State, that's totally irrevelant, Goldwater got totally blown out of the water in the state on a whole but for some reason did relatively well for a Republican in NYC. If Republicans can't do even better than Goldwater in NYC, that doesn't bode well for them in the future huh?

Also Walter, you realize that the NY city council is something like 27 Democrats, 3 Republicans? Are you going to argue now that Massachusetts is starting to turn Republican since their last 4 governors have been Republicans, yet their legislature remains 80% Democratic?

Might I also add another reason Bloomberg won: his entire campaign was basically that he was a former Democrat.

BetterRedthanDead,

You have to forgive me, I gave you too much credit as I assumed that you would understand my point...

I'll spell out in more simple terms. You are comparing Orange County in 1964 to Orange County in 2000. Over that 36-year period, Orange County saw a massive increase in the Mexican population, most of whom are first generation Americans who tend to vote heavily Democratic. In fact, that congressional district is now represented by a Mexican Democratic Female as the voter registration in Orange County is now roughly 50/50, compared to the 1960's and 1970's when this Reagan country dominated by older generations that were almost exclusively white. So comparing Orange County in 1964 to Orange County in 2000 would be about as relevant as comparing the 1964 New England Patriots to the 2000 New England Patriots...same team, different players in a game that has changed significantly.
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BRTD
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« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2004, 10:12:44 PM »

yes, but the fact is either way the Republicans have lost significantly in Orange county. And if they can't rack up high margins in Orange county for whatever reason, they're in big trouble in California, unless they've picked up somewhere else to make up for it. And they haven't.
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