VA: 2000 Election Result: Allen leads Webb by 3 (Roanoke College)

[Sam Spade]

New Poll: Virginia Senator by 2000 Election Result on 2006-10-29

Summary: D: 42%, R: 45%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Mike in Maryland]

A Uni poll with far more Undecideds than every other poll of the race. Useless.

Not necessarily useless; they just didn't push undecideds/leaners as hard as some others.

Roanoke College has polled several races, from the 1994 Senate race to the 2005 governor's race, and their results were usually close to the final result (no more than a point or two off.)  It looks like this is a tossup overall, judging from the many undecideds, although some of the crosstabs are hard to believe, probably from the small size of the subsamples and consequent large margins of error.

Full disclosure: I am a Roanoke College alumnus (class of 1997.)

[Sam Spade]

Roanoke College did not poll 2004 to my knowledge, but in 2005, they were actually 2nd to SUSA in terms of accuracy and since SUSA essentially tried to say their poll was wrong, that raises that result in my mind.  I don't know about races previous to 2000.

Still, it's a uni poll.  FWIW.

[sethm0]

 Small sample size, high undecideds and, most importantly, conducted over the course of a week starting TEN DAYS AGO. It may be accurate, but it's old.

[Eraserhead]

I think Webb has a lead within the MoE right now.

[Deano963]

From the Hotline:


"Democrats detect a pattern in Sen. George Allen's campaign advertising schedule which suggests to them the incumbent is running out of money and is relying on an infusion from nat'l Republicans to reach parity with challenger James Webb. In turn, Allen's campaign accuses Democrats and Webb's campaign of fabricating the charge to dispirit conservatives and to fool the media into concluding that Allen is headed for defeat.

According to reports filed with the FEC, Webb has raised more than 3.2 million in October, compared to less than $800K for Allen. For the week ending 10/30, Webb reported to the FEC that he had raised more than $630K, while Allen collected $284K. That's lead to speculation among Democrats that Allen's campaign is nearly broke. LaCivita [Allen's senior strategist] called the charge "bullsh**t;" he would not provide an exact number, citing strategic concerns."

[mgrossbe]

Matthews was all over the fact that allen has run out of money today on hardball. It will be interesting to see if allen will be able to run his positive ad campaign for the weekend that he had wanted to end on. I never thought we would have a chance in this race and now it seems like webb just might pull this out. Not counting my chickens though.

[Deano963]

What really amazes me is that Webb raised $3.2 million in October to just $800K for Allen. Webb has almost completely erased Allen's fundraising advantage in this race. Incredible.

[mgrossbe]

An old friend of my said once look where the money going at the end and you will see who wins. His point being that people want to influence the person in charge and they see where the wind is blowing. In this case "investors" must see that webb is the better choice when spending their bucks.