I think you're all right... must be the independent in me coming through
That is, as Keystone Phil stated, some of those PA ad buys will hit NJ. And Bush should do reasonably well in the state. Nonetheless, the largest population mass is in the northeast of the state... not likely to catch the PA ads. So, The Vorlon is also right, NJ is probably a pipe dream for Bush. The best he can do is hope to tighten it enough to force Kerry to waste time/effort/money there... much like Kerry may try to do in NC by tapping Edwards as VP... NC will still very likely go to Bush, but he'd need to pay it some attention just to be sure. IMO, that's the best Bush can hope for in NJ... force Kerry to defend, just in case.
