sethm0
Jr. Member
Posts: 304
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« on: November 05, 2006, 10:18:09 AM » |
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I've been saying for a while that RI is not in the bag for the Dems. There is strong sentimental attachment for Chafee and many people are not crazy about Whitehouse. Chafee has been going negative on him in a big way and Whitehouse's ads really have not been that great. Any other year and Chafee would probably be a lock to win.
I still give Whitehouse the slight edge, however, for two reasons. While his ads have not been stellar, he has built a pretty amazing ground game. His campaign has had 80 full-time staff and from today to the election will have 1,000 paid canvassers in addition to legions of volunteers. In another state these numbers might not be impressive, but in Rhode Island they are almost unimaginably large. The Republicans' 72-hour operatoin is impressive too, but I think it will have met its match.
Second, there is a major ballot initiative in Rhode Island around casino gambling. So much money has been thrown into the question, especially by the casino company wanting the initiative passed, that advertising on this issue is almost more visible than the Senate ads. The casino company is investing a truck-load of money into a gotv operation focused on the inner city. If this operation lives up to the hype, Whitehouse will benefit greatly.
So this one really is going to come down to the wire. I predict Whitehouse with 51 or 52%.
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