MT: Rasmussen: Tester(D) leads by 2 against Burns(R)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

A weekend poll has the Dem up by 2 points...I say the odds are the GOP holds this seat and Burns wins by 3-6 points.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

A weekend poll has the Dem up by 2 points...I say the odds are the GOP holds this seat and Burns wins by 3-6 points.

Way, way overestimating the effect of weekend polling.

I added momentum (1-2%), weekend (2%), very red state (1-2%), Saddam verdict (1-2%)

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

I added momentum (1-2%), weekend (2%), very red state (1-2%), Saddam verdict (1-2%)

Why are you adding "very red state"?  Why would a poll need to make additional accounting for that?

I think Burns is under polling in Montana, as most GOPers do in Red States in recent years.  BUT, I forgot about the large number of early voting when I originally posted in this thread.  I no longer believe Burns will win by 3-6%.  This one will be very tight.