MT: Rasmussen: Tester(D) leads by 2 against Burns(R)

[Eraserhead]

I feel good about the fact that Burns can't seem to break 48% in any of the polls but I'm still pretty concerned all the same. It will be close.

[Eraserhead]

A weekend poll has the Dem up by 2 points...I say the odds are the GOP holds this seat and Burns wins by 3-6 points.

Way, way overestimating the effect of weekend polling.

I added momentum (1-2%), weekend (2%), very red state (1-2%), Saddam verdict (1-2%)

Quite scientific.

[Eraserhead]

look a lot of people already voted early before this swing in the polls..... and Burns is under fifty..... this is seat number 3 or 4 (with virginia, man that state has climbed]... I honestly think Chafee might pull it off....

Don't but the Chafee hype. Too little, too late for him.

[Eraserhead]

I added momentum (1-2%), weekend (2%), very red state (1-2%), Saddam verdict (1-2%)

Why are you adding "very red state"?  Why would a poll need to make additional accounting for that?

I think Burns is under polling in Montana, as most GOPers do in Red States in recent years.  BUT, I forgot about the large number of early voting when I originally posted in this thread.  I no longer believe Burns will win by 3-6%.  This one will be very tight.

I agree it will be tight...I think that Burns though (unlike Bunning in Kentucky which for some reason felt like a similar situation) will lose...too little too late

That is my guess and the same for The Chafeeanator.