MT: Rasmussen: Tester(D) leads by 2 against Burns(R)

[Gustaf]

The problem for Burns is that Tester isn't really losing ground; what has happened is that Burns has been gaining undecideds, which isn't really too surprising. Tester is still at, or at least very close to, 50%, which is still enough to win. Some undecideds probably won't vote anyway, I suspect.

[Gustaf]

Let's be honest Tester hasnt been over 50% in that many polls even when he was leading by a wide margin... Burns was likley to make up the diffrence in a state like MT and narrow the gap, it was always likley that Tester would be able to garner somthing like 50-52%, but it was never likley that he'd win by a wide margin... the polls havent really changed that much Tester has remained pretty static in the 48-52% bracket, the diffrence is Burns has made up the deficit a bit... but he needs to do more than that to win, at the moment I'd still say that was unlikley.   

Yep, exactly my point. Even Schweitzer didn't win by more than a couple of points.