It's not over...Casey only up four

[Keystone Phil]

Casey - 48
Santorum - 44


Thank you, Grassrootspa...

From a new New McCulloch Research & Polling Survey:

U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has gained ground in his bid to win re-election, according to a new poll released Monday. The poll of 800 very likely general election voters, was conducted by McCulloch Research & Polling, an independent polling company out of Chicago, on November 4-5.

Santorum’s opponent, State Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr., led the incumbent Senator 48.1-44.1%, according to the poll. “Senator Santorum has a history of closing hard at the end of his campaigns,” said pollster Rod McCulloch. “It looks like this campaign will be no different.”

Treasurer Casey racks up his largest margin geographically in Southeast Pennsylvania, where he leads Senator Santorum 53.7%-37.1% in the region encompassing Philadelphia and surrounding counties.

Senator Santorum, who racked up overwhelming majorities during his last election in 2000 in Central and Northwestern Pennsylvania, is seeing some of those voters returning to the fold, according to the poll. The second term Senator leads in Central Pennsylvania (55.1-38.8%), South Central Pennsylvania (55.0-44.1%), Northeastern Pennsylvania (54.6%-38.1%), and Northwestern Pennsylvania (48.3%-41.4%).

In addition to the Philadelphia area, Treasurer Casey also leads Santorum in the Southwestern Pennsylvania area surrounding Pittsburgh (49.5%-41.0%).

To close the gap with Casey, Santorum also needs his base of conservative voters to come home in large numbers. That appears to be happening, according to the poll, with 79.8% of Republican voters, and 91.0% of conservative Republican voters choosing the pro-life Senator over the pro-life State Treasurer.

Santorum also leads among younger older voters over age 60 (46.0%-44.6%), and white voters (48.4%-43.9%). Casey leads among all other age groups, as well as among voters who identify themselves as Independents (49.0%-39.3%), and African-American voters (79.8%-14.6%).

The election, like many around the nation, will most likely be decided by which party can get their voters to the polls in higher numbers. While Santorum holds the big lead among Republicans, Casey offsets that by attracting a similar percentage of Democratic voters (76.5%).

“This election is still Bob Casey, Jr.’s to lose,” McCulloch said. “But Santorum has now put himself in position for an upset.”


http://www.pagop.org/News/Read.aspx?ID=2965

[Keystone Phil]

Who is McCulloch Research??

Independent firm out of Chicago