How likely is a complete GOP shutout?

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

[Eraserhead]

That said the worst case for Dems in the Senate would be about 2-3. Maybe 1-3 if they really blow it....and of course all bets are off it there is a sudden terrorist attack or bin Laden puts out another tape to help the Republicans right before the election.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

Wait you actually think Steele has a 90% chance of beating Mfume?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

Wait you actually think Steele has a 90% chance of beating Mfume?

I put Kean beating Menendez at 60%, and Steele beating Mfume at 60%, the chance that they both lose is about 10%

[Smash255]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

Not sure what is more moronic thinking Steele has a 90% chance of beating Mufme, thinking Kean is almost certain on defeating Menendez, or the most realistic Scenario is the GOP incrasing their majority in the Sentate....

[Flying Dog]

For the people that believe that DeVos will beat Granholm. Prepared to be disapointed on Nov. 7. DeVos has got pretty much all he can out of his T.V. ads. Plus, Granholm is on full steam in her reelection campaign. She is hitting DeVos back hard and its making an impact. The last several polls have had DeVos going down and Granholm going up. The MDP is getting enthusiastic now and will go out in full force for Granholm. Detroit will come out more powerfull for Granholm then it did in 2002. My guess: Granholm wins 52-46.

[Eraserhead]

Little chance--I will personally see to it that DeVos wins MI!

Are you even old enough to vote?

Anyway

I think there will be a significant swing against the Reps... the issue is whether it will be in the right places.

I give the Dems at least +3 in the Senate... as much as +5 in the BC scenario. And the Dems picking up 10-15 house seats.

This won't be 1994 again... but it won't be a nice night for the Reps... saving some convenient development.

As for the Governorships. OH and PA are out (it's serious wishful thinking to try to see it) WI is a chance, I think MI will stay w/Granholm by a VERY tight margin (less than 2%).

It will be pretty nice if they keep the House and Senate as you seem to be predicting. Best case in the Senate would be 6-7, although I think it will more likely be 3-5 seats. I don't think 20 to 25 seats is out of the question for the House.

Wow, you really think the Dems have a shot at more than 5 seats?  That would be near impossible.  W/Kean winning, the Dems best chance is netting about 1-3 seats, if Steele wins there's a chance it could be +1 or cancelling each other out.

I'm not expecting Kean or Steele to win.

If Mfume wins the primary, which looks like it could happen, there is about a 90% chance of them wins, and given the house and govenors race, I'm putting the GOP being shut out at .1%

Best case scenario GOP, hold all seats and gain NJ and MD +2, more realistic is plus +1 or 0

Wait you actually think Steele has a 90% chance of beating Mfume?

I put Kean beating Menendez at 60%, and Steele beating Mfume at 60%, the chance that they both lose is about 10%

That makes no freakin' sense.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the actual ludicrously best case scenario in the Senate for the Dems is +6 - +5 is a possiblity - but I've predicted 4.

[Eraserhead]

DownwiththeLeft do you actually Kean only has a 10% chance of losing the NJ Senate race or did you just type something inncorrectly?

[DownWithTheLeft]

DownwiththeLeft do you actually Kean only has a 10% chance of losing the NJ Senate race or did you just type something inncorrectly?

I said he is favored to win w/about 60% certainty, same percentage if Mfume beats Cardin for Steele.  I'm saying the chance that both of them, since they are or would be favorites, losing is about 10%.  I don't see a way both of them would lose, one or the other or both would win.  You may not agree, and the acceptable, but it makes sense.

[Soaring Eagle]

Very likely. I'm nearly positive the GOP won't gain any Senate seats. The only Governor's seat they MIGHT take is Michigan. I haven't been following the House races as much, but I think there's a good possibility they won't gain any seats there.

[Sam Spade]

Hard to say this early out, but I would wager at about a 25% chance right now.  IL-08 is probably the most likely switch of anything at this moment, up there are some Governor's (Iowa, Maine, Michigan) races and maybe New Jersey in the Senate.

In terms of the House, what is not helping Republicans in gaining any is that there are no Dems retiring from GOP-leaning House seats in the Prez elections.  The closest one is OH-06, which was essentially 50-50 in 2004. 

In comparison, in 1994, the Dems won 4 open GOP seats.  Each one of these seats was D+5 or more in terms of the averaged and weighted Prez results from 1992/1996.  There are no low-lying fruit for the GOP this time.

I actually forget whether the Dems picked up a Governorship that year.  No Senate seats were picked up.

It's kinda pathetic, actually, when you think about it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I actually forget whether the Dems picked up a Governorship that year.

I know for a fact we got at least one. Tony Knowles was first elected in Alaska that year. Of course, that was a pick up from the Alaskan Independence Party, not the Republicans.

[Nym90]

I actually forget whether the Dems picked up a Governorship that year.

I know for a fact we got at least one. Tony Knowles was first elected in Alaska that year. Of course, that was a pick up from the Alaskan Independence Party, not the Republicans.

Yes, that was the only Governorship the Dems picked up, Alaska, and as you say it wasn't from the GOP.

The GOP also lost one statehouse in Maine, but again to an independent, Angus King.

No governorship switched from Republican to Democrat, but there was one Dem pickup and one GOP loss.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I believe the Democrats will win Montana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island, gaining five seats in the Senate at least and ending in a 50-50 tie as in 2000.  I will also predict, rashly perhaps, that they will win at least Tennessee or Virginia. 

Close races for the Senate tend to all fall one way; eg. in 2004 the GOP won every closely contested race except for Colorado and Illinois.  In 2000, the Democrats won them all except Nevada.  Arguably, there is an exception that proves the rule yet I am doubtful its New Jersey in this case.  I am not too worried about Menendez yet, we are close to the elections but far away enough for the tide to turn.  I know this argument also relies on the fact that a GOP incumbent or challenger could gain in the polls but I am going to dismiss it.  Maryland will vote for Cardin by about the same margin as it went for Kerry in 2004: 56%-43% or around that area.  The Republicans used to see Washington as their chance but recent polling has shown Cantwell leading by 17%.

A new poll for IL-8 shows Melissa Bean leading 47%-28%; she may be vulnerable but in the Constituent Dynamics poll she still led 48%-45%.  There is also John Barrow possibly in Georgia; I know nothing about the race but apparently the Congressman he defeated in 2004, Max Burns is within striking distance.  One of the most interesting possibilties is VT-AL; Vermont is enough of a contrarian state to send Bernie Sanders to the Senate and elect a Republican in the same year. 

I know less about the Gubernatorial races and I used to think Judy Baar-Topinka was a possibilty in Illinois but she does not have enough cash for the fight and defeating an incumbent Democrat in Illinois is hard, especially in a year like this one.  I still believe Granholm will win in Michigan as Debbie Stabenow will pull her to victory. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well this did happen after all.

brtd, the senate race in mn wouldnt even be competitive for the gop if the democrats had a qualified candidate.

ive often wondered, how come mn cant get qualified dems to run?  walter fing mondale in 02?  amy klobacher in 06?

roger moe for governor?

republicans havent carried the state in a presidential race since 1972, but the best you all can get to run for the senate is some kind of divorce attorney.

Yes, such a TERRIBLE candidate. A better one might've taken Otter Tail!