Bush up 47-40 in latest Fox News Opinion Dynamics Poll

[ATFFL]

Just saw the report on the channel, looking for the update on the website.

[TeePee4Prez]

Consider the source!

[ATFFL]

Consider the source!

Why would an otherwise seemingly intelligent person post such a mind numbingly stupid comment?

[Lunar]

Consider the source!

Considering it makes me all the more likely to believe it.  FOX was one of the top two firms for the 2000 result I believe.

[The Vorlon]

Consider the source!

Considering it makes me all the more likely to believe it.  FOX was one of the top two firms for the 2000 result I believe.

The final Opinion Dynamics/Fox news poll of 2000 predicted a dead heat between Vice President Gore and then Governor Bush.

A "fairly" good call I believe

[12th Doctor]

Consider the source!

Your right.  Fox/Opinion Dynamics called the race dead on in 2000.  This poll must be accurate.

[Lunar]

Consider the source!

Your right.  Fox/Opinion Dynamics called the race dead on in 2000.  This poll must be accurate.

I wouldn't go that far.  Even the best poll can be a victim of statistics, but it certainly isn't biased.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whats the % undecided etc? Hang on a minute... I'm commenting on a national poll... sh*t... breaking me own rules... I'll go now...

[The Vorlon]

Consider the source!

Your right.  Fox/Opinion Dynamics called the race dead on in 2000.  This poll must be accurate.

No... it means Opinion Dynamics is a good firm with relatively few structural flaws and biases in their polls.

The "probability god" can smack them around just as badly as any other poll.

[12th Doctor]

Consider the source!

Your right.  Fox/Opinion Dynamics called the race dead on in 2000.  This poll must be accurate.

No... it means Opinion Dynamics is a good firm with relatively few structural flaws and biases in their polls.

The "probability god" can smack them around just as badly as any other poll.

Alright, fine.  I know that, I was just refuting his assertion that the poll was biased.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Source aside, polls do contain error.  But regardless what the polls currently say, Bush is indeed in very serious trouble..and...and...and...his underlying support is weakening.

And Bush's poor communication skills (esp. when he is under fire) is preventing him from launching an offensive.

Bush has no voice.  If Kerry could learn to talk without pointing his finger...

...I still think Dean was the Dems best bet.  At least he had some kind of a message.

[ATFFL]

I only glanced the poll, so I did not get the full details.  I am fairly certain that the breakdown was

Bush 47
Kerry 40
Nader 3
Undecided 10

Don't hold me to that though.

[struct310]

Dick Morris should be in hog heaven after this poll so he can go back on TV and say he knew all along it would be a Bush rout.  47-40 is quite good considering the constant influx of negativity from Kerry and the plastering of Abu Gharaib(sp) on the front cover of each and every newspaper.

[The Vorlon]

Whats the % undecided etc? Hang on a minute... I'm commenting on a national poll... sh*t... breaking me own rules... I'll go now...

Come on in... National polls are fun...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Whats the % undecided etc? Hang on a minute... I'm commenting on a national poll... sh*t... breaking me own rules... I'll go now...

Come on in... National polls are fun...

What was the % of undecided then?

[The Vorlon]

Whats the % undecided etc? Hang on a minute... I'm commenting on a national poll... sh*t... breaking me own rules... I'll go now...

Come on in... National polls are fun...

What was the % of undecided then?

[ATFFL]

Whats the % undecided etc? Hang on a minute... I'm commenting on a national poll... sh*t... breaking me own rules... I'll go now...

Come on in... National polls are fun...

What was the % of undecided then?

Look up.  

Or here.

Bush 47
Kerry 40
Nader 3
Undecided 10

Not 100% certain on Nader and undecided.


EDIT:  They just ran it, I was right.  Numbers are accurate.

[ATFFL]

I hate posting right after myself, but here is the pdf on the Fox poll.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/062404_poll.pdf

Their story on it:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,123679,00.html

Edit:  THey have some state polling data in there I will pull out :

FLorida:

Bush: 48
Kerry: 38
Nader: 3
Undecided: 10

Michigan:

Bush: 42
Kerry: 40
Nader: 5
Undecided: 12

Ohio:

Bush: 45
Kerry: 41
Nader: 4
Undecided: 9

Pennsylvania:

Bush: 46
Kerry: 41
Nader: 3
Undecided: 9

These were 4 seperate polls in those states.

[millwx]

I only glanced the poll, so I did not get the full details.  I am fairly certain that the breakdown was

Bush 47
Kerry 40
Nader 3
Undecided 10

Don't hold me to that though.

Your numbers are right.  June 22-23.  900RV.

[Smash255]

This poll completley contradicts Gallup, completley Contradicts two ARG polls and a Quinnipiac poll, has Bush up 43-42 in blue states.  (I thiink their are some real serious issues with this poll.  Is every other pollster on the national and state level wrong??  I highly dount that, and the fact Bush is doing slighlty better in blue states 43-42 than battlegrounds 43-43 is the real kicker.

[ATFFL]

This is 5 different polls.  The main one is where the blue states come from.  AN error in there woudl not effect the 4 state polls, unless there was a systemic problem.

The polls do also support a number of recent polls too, Survey USA in FL, the Harris and Tipp nationals, and carry the trend for MI, PA and OH.  

It is likely the method is overpolling Bush a bit, but not by a whole lot.

[Beet]

Well there seem to be no internals anywhere in the lengthy file, except a brief paragraph indicating a sample of 900 RV and and the MoE.

[ATFFL]

Well there seem to be no internals anywhere in the lengthy file, except a brief paragraph indicating a sample of 900 RV and and the MoE.

Hiding internals is a disturbing trend.  

Then again, times are better now than they were ever before.  We now get confidence reports with polls, something that was unheard of before.  Hopefully, in a few years, putting ll the relevant internals up with your poll will be a standard practice.

[Smash255]

This is 5 different polls.  The main one is where the blue states come from.  AN error in there woudl not effect the 4 state polls, unless there was a systemic problem.

The polls do also support a number of recent polls too, Survey USA in FL, the Harris and Tipp nationals, and carry the trend for MI, PA and OH.  

It is likely the method is overpolling Bush a bit, but not by a whole lot.

Harris poll was over a week ago.  Since then ALL the other polls have showed it close the ABC Poll had its issues the other direction.

7 of the 8 previous PA polls showed Kerry ahead exception Rasmussen by 1 9 of the last 10 MI polls including 5 in a row have showed Kerry ahead in MI.  Ohio polls have gone back & forth the entire way.  ALL FL polls have been close, Survey USA poll that showed Bush up 7 was shown to be flawed with an overampling of Reps  (the poll had something like Reps identity +7 in its sample, when the state is actually Dems +2)

[ATFFL]

This is 5 different polls.  The main one is where the blue states come from.  AN error in there woudl not effect the 4 state polls, unless there was a systemic problem.

The polls do also support a number of recent polls too, Survey USA in FL, the Harris and Tipp nationals, and carry the trend for MI, PA and OH.  

It is likely the method is overpolling Bush a bit, but not by a whole lot.

Harris poll was over a week ago.  Since then ALL the other polls have showed it close the ABC Poll had its issues the other direction.

7 of the 8 previous PA polls showed Kerry ahead exception Rasmussen by 1 9 of the last 10 MI polls including 5 in a row have showed Kerry ahead in MI.  Ohio polls have gone back & forth the entire way.  ALL FL polls have been close, Survey USA poll that showed Bush up 7 was shown to be flawed with an overampling of Reps  (the poll had something like Reps identity +7 in its sample, when the state is actually Dems +2)

So you are telling me to ignore a poll that is a week old in the national and pay attention to several month old polls on the state level?  See the contradiction?

ALso, since Harris has been a TIPP/IBD poll that had Bush up.

The Survey USA poll used self identification, they pointed this out and said it may be due to the Reagan funeral that they were skewed toward Bush.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Look there and tell me where the national trend lines are.