Districts that swung to the Republicans (percentage wise)

[nclib]

I'm talking margin of victory.

Other than the redrawn Georgia seats, does anyone know of any?

[Sam Spade]

NE-01 was one which I mentioned earlier.  I'll try to find some others.

[Sam Spade]

Based on a quick look-through CNN numbers...

Excluding open seats and unopposed Congressman (by Democrats, not third-parties) in either 2004 or 2006, here are the CDs where the Democratic% was lower in 2006 than 2004 or where the Republican% was higher in 2006 than 2004.  I'll note the seats that were open in 2004 with a *, since it is entirely likely they would gain support and safety with incumbency.

AL-01(R), AZ-07(D), AR-03(R), CA-01(D), CA-05(D), CA-06(D), CA-08(D), CA-18(D), CA-26(R), CA-29(D), CA-43(D), CA-49(R), IL-01(D), IL-08*(D), IA-03(D), LA-07*(R), MN-08(D), MO-01(D), NE-01*(R), NV-01(D), NY-29*(R), OK-01(R), SC-05(D), SC-06(D), TN-03(R), TN-08(D), TX-01*(R), TX-02*(R), TX-19*(R), TX-27(D), TX-32*(R), WV-01(D)

GA-08 (formerly GA-03), GA-11 and GA-12 also swung to the Republicans, but these CDs were changed after 2004.

Most of the Dem CD's in California were runs to the Green Party.  I think this might have to do with up-ballot more than anything else.

Couple of interesting facts:
MN-06:  Michelle Bachmann (R) won this CD by the same margin (8%, except with a Indy getting 8%) as Mark Kennedy did in 2004 (as an incumbent) in a bad Republican year in Minnesota.  I suspect the former has the stronger future also.

OH-04:  James Jordan (R) won to replace retiring Michael Oxley (R).  Jordan got 60% of the vote this time, whereas Oxley only got 59% in 2004.

PA-06:  Exactly the same margin, amusingly.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

TN-08(D)

TN-8 was an improvement because in 2004 our candidate was a racist anti-Republican nutcase who the party tried to remove from the ballot whereas our candidate this year was only a neo-confederate nutcase who "seceded" from the Republican party about three weeks ago.  Maybe in '08 we will upgrade to a mildly prejudiced mental hospital patient.

[AuH2O]

25% for a National Socialist was pretty impressive, I must admit.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

SC-05(D), SC-06(D)

In SC-5 the difference can be attributed to Spratt having a decent opponent compared to 2004.

In SC-6 some of the effect is due to Green party canddate in 2006 and the fact that McLeod ran on both the GOP and Constitution party lines in 2004 (75,443 GOP votes and 4157 Constitution votes) but only the GOP this year.  However, even taking that into account there was a small shift to the right in SC-6.

In SC-6 the difference is likely due to the bad press that Clyburn has been getting over the Clyburn Connector.  (South Carolina's own version of The Bridge to Nowhere, but at least ours goes somewhere and the controversy is more over whether the money could be better spent on an alternate project (refurbishing the US 601 bridge/causeway over the Congaree) in the same district and the degree of ecological impact of the Connector.  As a self-avowed road geek, I favor the Connector as it will cut travel time between Orangeburg and Sumter considerably as it will restore the direct route that was flooded out by the building of Lake Marion in the 1930's by the WPA.) 

[minionofmidas]

TN-08(D)

TN-8 was an improvement because in 2004 our candidate was a racist anti-Republican nutcase who the party tried to remove from the ballot whereas our candidate this year was only a neo-confederate nutcase who "seceded" from the Republican party about three weeks ago.  Maybe in '08 we will upgrade to a mildly prejudiced mental hospital patient.

Good one, Don.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WV-01(D)

Well the reason for this one is pretty obvious. The suprising thing here was quite how small the swing from 2004 was; the swing probably had more to do with a Republican candidate operating with more than a shoe-string budget than from Mollohan's ethical troubles.
He actually won all but two counties in his district IIRC; even Ritchie.

[Keystone Phil]

PA-06:  Exactly the same margin, amusingly.

And it'll always be that way. Jim Gerlach will 1) never lose and 2) always get 51% of the vote unless the Dems give up in fielding a candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

MN-06:  Michelle Bachmann (R) won this CD by the same margin (8%, except with a Indy getting 8%) as Mark Kennedy did in 2004 (as an incumbent) in a bad Republican year in Minnesota.  I suspect the former has the stronger future also.

Well she's sure as hell not getting elected statewide, that's for sure. Of course she might be smarter than Kennedy and realize this, in which case she does have a stronger future in the House. I am really hoping she runs against Klobuchar in 2012, to repeat my sig again

[Sam Spade]

I missed one CD that swung to Republicans, that being Bobby Jindal's suburban NO CD, LA-01.

In fact, through a quick perusal, I think Jindal got the highest % of any Republican incumbent facing Dem opponents, with 88% this election.

[nclib]

AL-01(R), AZ-07(D), AR-03(R), CA-01(D), CA-05(D), CA-06(D), CA-08(D), CA-18(D), CA-26(R), CA-29(D), CA-43(D), CA-49(R), IL-01(D), IL-08*(D), IA-03(D), LA-07*(R), MN-08(D), MO-01(D), NE-01*(R), NV-01(D), NY-29*(R), OK-01(R), SC-05(D), SC-06(D), TN-03(R), TN-08(D), TX-01*(R), TX-02*(R), TX-19*(R), TX-27(D), TX-32*(R), WV-01(D)

Looks like IA-3 (Boswell's seat) is the only competitive seat that trended away from the Democrats. Bean's percentage was lower due to a liberal 3rd party candidate.

I missed one CD that swung to Republicans, that being Bobby Jindal's suburban NO CD, LA-01.

In fact, through a quick perusal, I think Jindal got the highest % of any Republican incumbent facing Dem opponents, with 88% this election.

Partisanship aside, it's nice to see Louisiana whites embracing a minority candidate.

[Galactic Overlord]

I missed one CD that swung to Republicans, that being Bobby Jindal's suburban NO CD, LA-01.

In fact, through a quick perusal, I think Jindal got the highest % of any Republican incumbent facing Dem opponents, with 88% this election.

Jindal had some Republican opposition in 2004. Here, he had just two Democrats and one Libertarian. That probably explains it.

Jindal is my congressman, by the way.

[nclib]

I missed one CD that swung to Republicans, that being Bobby Jindal's suburban NO CD, LA-01.

In fact, through a quick perusal, I think Jindal got the highest % of any Republican incumbent facing Dem opponents, with 88% this election.

Jindal had some Republican opposition in 2004. Here, he had just two Democrats and one Libertarian. That probably explains it.

Actually in that district, in 2004, Republicans (total) got 81% to 19% for the Democrats. Here, Jindal outgained the Democrats (combined) 88%-11%.

[Sam Spade]

In 2004 in TX-32, Sessions faced another incumbent in Martin Frost and that race was very heated. Sessions' opponent this year, Will Pryor, was lesser known.

Same thing goes for all of the Texas CDs.  The one that surprised me was Solomon Ortiz in TX-27 going from 63% to 59% against the same Anglo opponent as in 2004.

Bush won this CD with 55% of the vote in 2004, but on the whole the Hispanic % Republicans won in Texas declined this year, as far as I can tell and this CD is about 2-1 Hispanic in VAP.

It could be that Solomon's just getting too old.

[Joe Republic]

My congressman in OH-03 increased his margin from 2004.  This was mainly due to the Democrats having to switch candidates late in the game because the original candidate was arrested on charges of domestic violence.

[minionofmidas]

In 2004 in TX-32, Sessions faced another incumbent in Martin Frost and that race was very heated. Sessions' opponent this year, Will Pryor, was lesser known.

Same thing goes for all of the Texas CDs.  The one that surprised me was Solomon Ortiz in TX-27 going from 63% to 59% against the same Anglo opponent as in 2004.

Bush won this CD with 55% of the vote in 2004, but on the whole the Hispanic % Republicans won in Texas declined this year, as far as I can tell and this CD is about 2-1 Hispanic in VAP.

It could be that Solomon's just getting too old.

How old is he?
Increased name recognition for the opponent might also be a factor.

[Sam Spade]

In 2004 in TX-32, Sessions faced another incumbent in Martin Frost and that race was very heated. Sessions' opponent this year, Will Pryor, was lesser known.

Same thing goes for all of the Texas CDs.  The one that surprised me was Solomon Ortiz in TX-27 going from 63% to 59% against the same Anglo opponent as in 2004.

Bush won this CD with 55% of the vote in 2004, but on the whole the Hispanic % Republicans won in Texas declined this year, as far as I can tell and this CD is about 2-1 Hispanic in VAP.

It could be that Solomon's just getting too old.

How old is he?
Increased name recognition for the opponent might also be a factor.

First off, I misspoke earlier.  His % declined from 63% to 57%.

To Lewis:  69, I think, which is not too old, really. 

Increased name recognition could be a factor, but we're talking about nearly a gain of 4% for the Republican and 2% going to the Libertarian against a really bad national trend for the GOP.  I was quite surprised, actually.

[minionofmidas]

In 2004 in TX-32, Sessions faced another incumbent in Martin Frost and that race was very heated. Sessions' opponent this year, Will Pryor, was lesser known.

Same thing goes for all of the Texas CDs.  The one that surprised me was Solomon Ortiz in TX-27 going from 63% to 59% against the same Anglo opponent as in 2004.

Bush won this CD with 55% of the vote in 2004, but on the whole the Hispanic % Republicans won in Texas declined this year, as far as I can tell and this CD is about 2-1 Hispanic in VAP.

It could be that Solomon's just getting too old.

How old is he?
Increased name recognition for the opponent might also be a factor.

First off, I misspoke earlier.  His % declined from 63% to 57%.

To Lewis:  69, I think, which is not too old, really. 

Increased name recognition could be a factor, but we're talking about nearly a gain of 4% for the Republican and 2% going to the Libertarian against a really bad national trend for the GOP.  I was quite surprised, actually.

Yeah, fairly surprising, I agree. Any major demographic trends ongoing? The district's basically Nueces and much of Cameron (which is awfully Republican for a county this Hispanic. Yeah, I know there's a major military presence. Voted for Bush and Perry, and it's almost 90% Mex) and Nueces (Corpus Christi), where the Hispanic majority is comparatively slight (56-38 in 2000). The remaining counties add just 90K people.

[Sam Spade]

In 2004 in TX-32, Sessions faced another incumbent in Martin Frost and that race was very heated. Sessions' opponent this year, Will Pryor, was lesser known.

Same thing goes for all of the Texas CDs.  The one that surprised me was Solomon Ortiz in TX-27 going from 63% to 59% against the same Anglo opponent as in 2004.

Bush won this CD with 55% of the vote in 2004, but on the whole the Hispanic % Republicans won in Texas declined this year, as far as I can tell and this CD is about 2-1 Hispanic in VAP.

It could be that Solomon's just getting too old.

How old is he?
Increased name recognition for the opponent might also be a factor.

First off, I misspoke earlier.  His % declined from 63% to 57%.

To Lewis:  69, I think, which is not too old, really. 

Increased name recognition could be a factor, but we're talking about nearly a gain of 4% for the Republican and 2% going to the Libertarian against a really bad national trend for the GOP.  I was quite surprised, actually.

Yeah, fairly surprising, I agree. Any major demographic trends ongoing? The district's basically Nueces and much of Cameron (which is awfully Republican for a county this Hispanic. Yeah, I know there's a major military presence. Voted for Bush and Perry, and it's almost 90% Mex) and Nueces (Corpus Christi), where the Hispanic majority is comparatively slight (56-38 in 2000). The remaining counties add just 90K people.

This area's about as stagnant as any demographically.  There were a couple of contested state House races in Nueces this year, but I doubt that had any larger affect, and if it did, the races involved should help Ortiz, not hurt him.

About Cameron County:  The 2005 estimate put the Hispanic % of population at 85.7%.  I happen to know the other voters are white, tend to live in Harlingen and are almost all of the Texas German stock that, as I'm sure you know, votes 100% GOP.  The military presence does make it more conservative, but the county has always been more GOP than other South Texas counties since the beginning of time.

In other words, no real good explanation.