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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Technical  (Read 122178 times)
Dave Leip
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« on: November 12, 2003, 10:16:37 pm »

This topic is for the technical issues around the 2004 prediction pages (upload problems, feature requests, etc.).

I'm interested in making this work you and your help in debug is appreciated.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2003, 10:11:40 am »

I have fixed the string length problem.  It was a bug I introduced last night after putting a file-length check in (since I set the database length for the name at only 25 char).  sorry about that.

Ryan - I like your suggestion.  What if we have two maps - one with the commit prediction (i.e. the current map) and one with the "solid, lean, tossup" categories.  They could be side-by-side to compare your confidence with the predicted results.

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Dave Leip
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2003, 01:57:13 pm »

Hey all!  BTW, thanks for patience and in helping me to debug this and providing feature feedback.  I have "redone" the page to add a confidence map to the prediction map.

This new page includes the new features and some bug fixes.  The page is run off of new set of database tables (so start fresh! - as initial uplolad and not update).  

As always, let me know what you think.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2003, 08:07:27 am »

Demrepdan,
Can you describe your platform?  OS and browser?  The files are there, but have zero file length... like the broser is creating the files in the directory, but not uploading them.  I first thought that this was a permissions problem, but have not been able to reproduce.  Now I am thinking that it may be the browser you are using...

I will delete the zero-length files.  Try a different browser (Netscape 7 or other Gecko-based browsers are pretty good) You can continue to fill-out the step 2 and email me the files as a fall-back.  
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #4 on: November 15, 2003, 12:21:37 am »

Demrepdan,
I got your maps and uploaded.  I'm very perplexed by the upload problem... as I have been unable to reproduce on any of my systems/configurations.  I'll do some more research.

I have also enabled the version tracking feature. This will allow everyone to continue to modify their maps based on new information.  Right now, I'm doing a daily tracking (so if you submit more than one prediction per day, it they will all be logged, but only the most recent version from that day will be tracked).

Ryan - can you try an upload with Netscape 7 on your PC?  
Thanks,
Dave
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #5 on: November 16, 2003, 10:00:50 am »

Well,
I looked around on the net and was able to find one solution to the blank upload problem (maybe).  I had omitted double-quotes around the enctype attribute assignment.  Since I am unable to test this, however, I do not know if it worked.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2003, 11:13:35 pm »
« Edited: November 17, 2003, 11:14:54 pm by Dave Leip »

Glad to hear that you were successful.  I've added descriptions of the constraints to the upload page - and also added an error-checking alert dialog prior to the attempted upload.

In addition, I have created a first-draft of an electoral college calculator at this location.  There is also a link on step 2 of the user prediction pages.

Let me know what you think.
Dave
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2003, 11:40:28 am »
« Edited: November 18, 2003, 12:12:50 pm by Dave Leip »

I added some color to the EV Calculator.  Let me know if you like it!
- background colors don't change properly with Opera 5.  Also, you need a browser that supports DHTML (IE >= v5 and Netscape >= v6) in order to view the dynamic color changes.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2003, 12:56:14 pm »

Cool.  BTW, I did get your mail and that is the best way to email me. (one can always use the email form as well).
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2003, 01:45:00 pm »
« Edited: November 19, 2003, 01:46:18 pm by Dave Leip »

English -
I reset the database when I created the ability to add the confidence map.  You need to start fresh (check the initial prediction button and choose your username and password).
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2003, 09:27:16 am »

Steps:
1. Start in this page.
2. Download the template maps.
3. modify template .gif files with graphic program (such as graphicconverter (Mac) or default paint program (PC) or gimp (Linux), etc.  Be sure to rename according to the guidelines and save a .gif
4. upload the files on the page listed in step 1.
5. once you upload, fill out the comments and EV totals fields.
6. If you need to update, just repeat these steps.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2003, 10:53:26 pm »
« Edited: November 27, 2003, 09:09:19 am by Dave Leip »

Glad to see you back.  I see that you tried to upload a number of files - but they all had a file lenght of 0... meaning that they did not upload properly.  The version number is intended for you to use when you actually update the maps, but if the maps don't upload correctly, then you need to change the name when you try again.  I can't explain the upload problem.  I've not been able to reproduce this problem.  Can you tell me what browser and OS you used when trying to upload?
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2003, 12:08:18 pm »

New User Prediction pages available!  I've redesigned the user-prediction scripts and now have removed all the pain associated with downloading, editing, and uploading maps.  The computer now generates them.  Try it out!
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2003, 09:36:10 am »

Hi Vetiver,
your two entries aren't the same - the prediction maps have different percentage wins (look at the version history on your individual prediction page).  You can't delete maps, but you can create a new version - and it will become the default version in the list.  There is currently a bug in the "most recent" page that I will address shortly that repeats the most recent version when you submitted multiple versions.
Dave
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #14 on: December 13, 2003, 02:48:02 pm »

The Percent column is intended to be the popular vote total for the winning candidate of that state... so > 70% means that the candidate wins the state with > 70% of the vote.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #15 on: January 06, 2004, 09:55:57 am »
« Edited: January 06, 2004, 09:57:25 am by Dave Leip »

There is a reason - I removed a number of entries from prediction spammers (kind of like ballot-box stuffing).  There were three individuals who had submitted almost the same maps over 20 times each.  This was skewing the data towards the bias of a couple of individuals.  I've added additional features to reduce this problem.

As for the identical nature of the prediction map and 2000, this is not a huge surprise since the defaults of the prediction maps are set to the 2000 results - many predictions do not change the win percentages and there are a majority of predictions that believe that the same states will be won in 2004.  I expect this to change once the general election democratic candidate is chosen and more polls are released closer to the election.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2004, 01:03:49 pm »

I've set it up so that you can post three, but not more.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #17 on: March 16, 2004, 04:29:40 pm »

Update to the Prediction page:  There is now the ability to click on a state to see the statistical charts of the > 1000 predictions!
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #18 on: May 20, 2004, 08:32:34 pm »

Note that I have upgraded the user prediction pages.  Please submit bugs and/or post any problems here.
Thanks,
Dave
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #19 on: May 21, 2004, 09:37:42 pm »

Hi,
Sorry for the difficulty.  Can you please be more specific?  When you entered the enable code, did you get an error message?  

Once you enter the code, you should get this message:

User Prediction and Polls Comments successfully enabled.
If you have an old User Prediction, upgrade it to the new database Login

Then, once you log in, I had this message
Note: This account is not enabled for full site membership.
(but I realize that it is confusing and have changed it).  The important point is that cookies must be allowed by your browser in order to post predictions (this is how the login information is remembered).  Can you describe what the error is when you try to post a prediction?

Thanks,
Dave
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2004, 09:45:18 pm »
« Edited: April 01, 2019, 07:37:14 am by Dave Leip »

Fritz - you need to register for the free atlas membership (I've created this new overall membership for polls, user predictions, and the (soon to be available) mock election.  The reg page is:

https://uselectionatlas.org/members.php?type=form

Dave
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2004, 08:59:56 am »

The Predictions Page now has most recent compiled maps and data on the prediction home page.  I used the most recent 500 - about three weeks worth.  (note, that only one prediction per user is included in the compiled version.  If more than one version from any one user was created in the time frame, only the most recent of those is included in the calculations).
Dave
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