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  2004 User Predictions - Technical (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Technical  (Read 122177 times)
Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
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Posts: 332


« on: November 13, 2003, 04:12:10 am »

I just realised this post is more appropriate here. Will delete it from the other folder in a bit.

Dave, it may be a little too late to suggest changes in color-coding for your map repeating 2000 results, but I found the shades to red associated with >50  and >60 to be too similar.

Also since the difference between getting 50.16% (Washington) and getting 54.60% (Illinois)  in the last election makes all the difference with regard to predicting competitiveness in the next election, Might I suggest having more than one category for 50-60%?

As to the predictive maps, I myself plan to have four completely different colors
Solid Republican -Dark Blue
Lean Republican - Light Blue
Tossup  - White or gray
Lean Democrat-Light Red
Solid Democrat- Dark Red
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2003, 04:16:18 am »

I just realised this post is more appropriate here. Will delete it from the other folder in a bit.

Dave, it may be a little too late to suggest changes in color-coding for your map repeating 2000 results, but I found the shades to red associated with >50  and >60 to be too similar.

Also since the difference between getting 50.16% (Washington) and getting 54.60% (Illinois)  in the last election makes all the difference with regard to predicting competitiveness in the next election, Might I suggest having more than one category for 50-60%?

As to the predictive maps, I myself plan to have four completely different colors
Solid Republican -Dark Blue
Lean Republican - Light Blue
Tossup  - White or gray
Lean Democrat-Light Red
Solid Democrat- Dark Red


Also come to think of it, if we are looking at predictive value, then margins work better than %vote totals. For instance in the map Maine is shown as a tossup state because Gore won it with less than 50%. However if you note that he won it by just over FIVE % and that five % were left-leaning voters of Ralph Nader, it puts a whole new light on the political competitiveness of the state.

Can we represent this vital angle in any way?
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2003, 10:38:18 am »

Ryan - I like your suggestion.  What if we have two maps - one with the commit prediction (i.e. the current map) and one with the "solid, lean, tossup" categories.  They could be side-by-side to compare your confidence with the predicted results.

Dave

Excellent Idea! That way we have best of both worlds.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2003, 10:58:34 am »

As to the predictive maps, I myself plan to have four completely different colors

I'll do something similar. I think I'll do what English did and simply use red and blue (ie, instead of different shades of red and blue). Would that be a problem?

Sounds OK to me at least but the prob with a two color map is that it doesnt differenciate between say Texas and Florida (two states that all so far have going republican)

If you are certain enough of your predictions that you feel every state you assign to a party is most likely to do so then its ok.

The utility of multiple color maps are to allow you to distinguish between "Likely" and "Sure" things Smiley
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2003, 01:19:22 pm »

Btw what's the meaning of "sticky topic" such as this thread is marked??

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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #5 on: November 14, 2003, 03:07:32 pm »

Well true to form I have been unsuccessful at uploading my file. I originally recd. an error saying saying "Error: Must select file to upload"and have now graduated to, "Error: A file "" already exists"

My browser is Internet Explorer 5 and I use Windows 98 SE.
Let me know if you can identify the problem.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #6 on: November 16, 2003, 01:43:18 pm »

Ryan - can you try an upload with Netscape 7 on your PC?  
Thanks,
Dave

Dave, I have now been able to upload my map thanks Smiley Sorry for the trouble.

I'm not sure what errors the others received but according to me I made the following screw-ups

- It looks like both the maps had to be uploaded at the same time. I was attempting to do so one at a time.

- I believe Graphics Interchange Format (.gif) was the type of file to use. I was earlier trying with bitmaps and jpegs

-filenames of the right size

Once I did all of the above it worked like a charm......no problem in the least! Maybe the same applies to at least a few others???

Ryan.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2003, 08:19:10 am »

Glad to hear that you were successful.  I've added descriptions of the constraints to the upload page - and also added an error-checking alert dialog prior to the attempted upload.

In addition, I have created a first-draft of an electoral college calculator at this location.  There is also a link on step 2 of the user prediction pages.

Let me know what you think.
Dave

Excellent tool! Quick to load and much easier to use. I wont be needing any other electoral calculator from now on Smiley

Btw I had also mailed you on leip at domain uselectionatlas. Did you get that mail and is that the right way to contact you if I need to?

Or do you have any other adddress I should use if I need to contact you personally? If you prefer you could send it to ryanmasc2000@yahoo.co.in

Thanks,
Ryan.
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2003, 12:44:25 pm »

Well even though I had said earlier that simplicity was best; in this case, I do think the colors are a useful addition. Nice job Dave.  Smiley
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #9 on: November 19, 2003, 02:06:48 pm »

BTW I forgot to mention that after taking care of the probs I mentioned I had no probs uploading with IE 5 ans Win 98- SE so there is no conflict with that system Smiley
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Ryan
ryanmasc
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 332


« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2003, 03:14:47 pm »

Well even though I had said earlier that simplicity was best; in this case, I do think the colors are a useful addition. Nice job Dave.  Smiley

I having been using the EV calculator a good bit and maintain its the best one I've used yet. I do not find the lack of a map to be a negative point at all.
However Dave, if like all techies you like to continually make improvements to your work Smiley I would suggest a horizontal bar graph depicting the new dem/rep totals

This is the only feature from Edwards EV calc on
http://www.johnedwards2004.com/map/

that I find could be a good addition here and even then its obviously not vital. Smiley
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