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  2004 User Predictions - Technical (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Technical  (Read 119817 times)
Gustaf
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E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« on: December 30, 2003, 05:27:59 pm »

How is it that the 2004 predictions mimic the 2000 outcomes, even down to the color shading?

Given the variation in predictions, including the number of all-blue and all-red maps, it seems highly unlikely.

Are we sure this represents the median prediction for each state?
Am I the only one who doesn't understand what he is saying?

We use Red for dem and blue for Republicans.

Actually, I don't understand what you are saying Smiley
He doesn't mention party colours as far as I can see. I asked the same thing on the other thread. The median prediction map is an exact copy of the 2000 results map, which does seem weird. It is not impossible though.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2004, 07:40:25 am »

I think that the matchup between the 2000 map and the 2004 compiled map of user predictions is very suspicious.  Recently the map had begun to reflect a larger Republican victory, with New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa switching to Republican, but this did not last long.  I think a large number of Republican prediction maps were removed to make the average or median more Democratic.  This can be seen by the fact that the number of submitted user predictions drops occasionally.  Interestingly, this adjustmet always favors the Democrats.

OK...I seriously doubt that Leip is purposefully trying to favour the Democrats in the prediction maps. That makes abolutely no sense.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2004, 12:53:17 pm »

Quote

OK...I seriously doubt that Leip is purposefully trying to favour the Democrats in the prediction maps. That makes abolutely no sense.
Quote

Well, I'm open to alternative explanations.  Can you think of any?  There's no doubt the number of entries drops occasionally, and the result is a shift back to 269-269 from a substantial Republican lead.

Well, ehhhh...I don't know but I think there is a different reason. Maybe there is a limit as to how many predictions can be included, and he either removes those contributed at an early stage or those which are more extreme? Or there is some technical problem, bug or whatever, which means that the prediction map is not working accurately. Or maybe there are a lot of Democrats, or a lot of goofs making predictions...
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

« Reply #3 on: January 06, 2004, 07:52:58 pm »

There is a reason - I removed a number of entries from prediction spammers (kind of like ballot-box stuffing).  There were three individuals who had submitted almost the same maps over 20 times each.  This was skewing the data towards the bias of a couple of individuals.  I've added additional features to reduce this problem.

As for the identical nature of the prediction map and 2000, this is not a huge surprise since the defaults of the prediction maps are set to the 2000 results - many predictions do not change the win percentages and there are a majority of predictions that believe that the same states will be won in 2004.  I expect this to change once the general election democratic candidate is chosen and more polls are released closer to the election.

I will have to ask you a question then. I posted more than one prediction map, reflecting two different scenarios and one more informative poll based map. They're called Gustaf2 and Gustaf3 and so on. Is this not allowed, b/c then I can remove some, in case you haven't already?
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,356


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2004, 02:27:24 pm »

I've set it up so that you can post three, but not more.
Dave

OK, thanks, I think I have already said this once, but GREAT thing with the new prediction map functions. I love it... Smiley

Why, btw, is there no third party option? It doesn't seem viable now, but it could be interesting in the future.
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Gustaf
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Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

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« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2004, 01:15:49 pm »

Help !

How can I put a map in my post ?

I want to put a prediction map in a post and comment it.

You make it on the EV calculator, then you right-click somewhere OUTSIDE the map, but inside the window (I recommend in between Hawaii and the continental US...), click on properties and copy the address (including the long series of letters and numbers there), paste it here and put
Img
before and after it.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,356


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2004, 04:15:34 pm »

Help !

How can I put a map in my post ?

I want to put a prediction map in a post and comment it.

You make it on the EV calculator, then you right-click somewhere OUTSIDE the map, but inside the window (I recommend in between Hawaii and the continental US...), click on properties and copy the address (including the long series of letters and numbers there), paste it here and put
Img
before and after it.

Thanks a lot.
But it doesn't work with my computer : the map is all grey. Besides this, I would like to use a "prediction map" (with percentages), not a EV map with just red and blue states.
I also tried to paste the adress of a "prediction map" but there was no map at all (not even a grey one).

Hm, the all grey thing seems to happen occasionally...but I think you're just making a small mistake then, I remember other people has been through the same thing. You can do what I just told you with the prediction maps you make to get percentages, etc. You could just post a link to your prediction on this site if you wanted.
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,356


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2004, 12:34:39 pm »

Help !

How can I put a map in my post ?

I want to put a prediction map in a post and comment it.

You make it on the EV calculator, then you right-click somewhere OUTSIDE the map, but inside the window (I recommend in between Hawaii and the continental US...), click on properties and copy the address (including the long series of letters and numbers there), paste it here and put
Img
before and after it.

Thanks a lot.
But it doesn't work with my computer : the map is all grey. Besides this, I would like to use a "prediction map" (with percentages), not a EV map with just red and blue states.
I also tried to paste the adress of a "prediction map" but there was no map at all (not even a grey one).

Hm, the all grey thing seems to happen occasionally...but I think you're just making a small mistake then, I remember other people has been through the same thing. You can do what I just told you with the prediction maps you make to get percentages, etc. You could just post a link to your prediction on this site if you wanted.

Could you make a test with the following adress so I can see what you did with a "Reply" ?
 http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/USERMAPS/pe2004917P2)

Thank you

Let's try this...

Img
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,356


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2004, 12:35:47 pm »

That's your map, right? Smiley

Img
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,356


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2004, 08:46:33 am »

That's your map, right? Smiley

Img


Yeah, it's my map  Wink
And I'm very proud of it !

I see the problem : nobody told me to put a .gif at the end of the adress.

Now it works :
Img


Well, I didn't put it there, I just used properties, etc like I told you. Smiley
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Gustaf
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Posts: 29,356


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2004, 10:15:55 am »

That's your map, right? Smiley



Yeah, it's my map  Wink
And I'm very proud of it !

I see the problem : nobody told me to put a .gif at the end of the adress.

Now it works :

Well, I didn't put it there, I just used properties, etc like I told you. Smiley

I was forced to put it there (letter by letter). When I did what you told me It didn't work. Your browser must have different settings.
I saw on another page on the forum that someone else had the same trouble (with "grey maps"). The solution is to add .gif manually. It should be in the "Help" somewhere.

OK, I guess you're right then. Anyway, now that you know you can put them on the discussion thread and get other people's opinions. Smiley
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Gustaf
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YaBB God
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Posts: 29,356


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2004, 04:45:53 pm »

NHPolitico, I have it typed EXACTLY the way you have it laid out, as I was trying to explain to Dunn.  And it is not producing the desired result.  There is some extraneous text that I have not typed into my signature file, which is now appearing there.

I appreciate both of your attempts to help, and I am following both of your instructions to the letter.  Why is this not working?Huh

Do this. Quote Dunn's post with your map. Supposing that it's the corect map. In the quote you'll see what he has written. See if you can figure it out then.
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