Bush = Ford?

[12th Doctor]

Bush's current approval rating now hangs at around the same level that Gerald Ford's was at in 1976 (in fact they are nealy identicle averaging about 47%).  If this is the case, then we can assume that this race will go much as 1976.

But there are some key differences.

Ford was in a much worse possition than Bush is now.  When polls were conducted in August, they showed that Ford was down by 30%.  Ford had to deal with all the negative asspects of the Presidency and enjoyed none of the advantage (ie no campaign organization, no emotional connection with the people, etc.).  Ford suffered all of the historical disadvantages of the second term such as scandles with the CIA, basically a third string line-up in the White House and to add to that a staff that had no real loyalty to him.  Ford was facing the after-math of a major scandle and a widely divided country.  He was derided by the average folks and the media for pardoning Nixon.  And a negative image as being a baffoon.

Yet, given all of these factors, Ford came back to nearly over take Carter in November.  May who look at the trends have stated that if the election had lasted another week Ford would have won with the national numbers fliped, a 4% gain for Ford.

Bush has distinct advantages over Ford.  I won't bother to explain them all, but most people will know what they are, so I don't feel I have to.  Bush lacks (at least at the moment) a major Earth-shattering scandle, with is what both brought Ford in and brought him down.  Iraq is not such a scandle as half the people support it and Watergate and Fords pardon were both massivly unpopular.  This being said, it would appear that history sides in favor of Bush winning.  Thought?  Comment?  Am I right or am I a jackass?

[dazzleman]

I think the Bush presidency and the Ford presidency were very different, at very different times, so it's hard to make a comparison.

Ford did not have a coterie of haters as Bush has.  Most people liked him personally, but some questioned his ability to do the job.  As you said, he enjoyed none of the advantages of incumbency.

Ford had the disadvantage of running against a southern Democrat, which Bush will not have.  Nixon had swept the south in 1972, and Ford may have done better there against a northern liberal.

A major difference between Ford and Bush is that Ford did not really undertake any bold initiatives as president.  His time in history called for a steady hand and as much of a respite as was possible under the circumstances.  He knew the country would not have supported bold initiatives of almost any kind during his time in office.

Bush as undertaken bold initiatives, so there is a lot more on which to judge his presidency.

Another major difference is that Bush has not had to cope with a challenge within his own party for the nomination, as Ford did.

I do believe that a focus on Kerry's Senate record by the Bush campaign will end up costing Kerry some moderate support, which will obviously help Bush, just as a sustained focus on Carter by the Ford campaign helped Ford..

[Akno21]

Bush and Ford were both not elected President. hehe. Seriously, the difference is that Ford was running against a Washington outsider, Jimmy Carter, while Bush will be running against a Washington insider, John F. Kerry. It certainly would change campaign strategy, at least.

[Storebought]

I'm saying this as a prediction and not as a value judgement: Bush will lose reelection, and it won't be close, as Ford's loss to Carter was.

The long-term trend of this election indicates a pervasive erosion in Republican support of Bush. Hell, you could even argue that Bush's slipping poll numbers indicate the erosion of Republican voters, period.

It is getting harder and harder to justify voting Republican nowadays. The GOP, since the expulsion of Gingrich, Phil Gramm, and Dick Armey, has no principle. Since the troika's departure, the congressional GOP does nothing but manufacture one pork project and pandering social welfare spending bill after another.

Worse still, Bush unflinchingly signs them, only to face abuse from GOP congressmen on CNN about "fiscal irresponsibility". Olympia Snowe is particularly grating in this respect.  

Even in his manful prosecution of the War on Terror, Bush receives not a whisper of support from any GOP senator or congressman. Even Tom DeLay hedges his words of support.

When the GOP loses control of Congress in these four years, all I can say is "Good riddance."  

In addition, voters are increasingly stupid. Not merely stupid in the maleducated sense, but obscenely self-centeredly stupid: Begging to the Congress to hand them one more free lunch; whining before the federal courts to concoct one more "emanation and penumbra" from the Constitution to justify perversion; gyrating on the streets of NYC and Seattle for absolute capitulation to the Religion of Peace. Worst stupidity of all: claiming toxic hatred of our American way of life is "patriotic."

The recent rejuvenation of the Democratic Party in places outside of Hollywood and the Upper West Side is evidence of Americans' metastasizing stupidity.

Only my optimism about my own future prevents me from feeling absolute disgust about the future of the US as a whole.

[The Duke]

Here is the main difference I see: Ford had Watergate to fend off.  More than Iraq or Haliburton or Michael Moore combined, Watergate blew apart public confidence in the Administration and all associated with it.  Bush has a divided nation to overcome, Ford had a hostile nation to overcome.

[12th Doctor]

Here is the main difference I see: Ford had Watergate to fend off.  More than Iraq or Haliburton or Michael Moore combined, Watergate blew apart public confidence in the Administration and all associated with it.  Bush has a divided nation to overcome, Ford had a hostile nation to overcome.

That was kinda a part of the point I was trying to make.

[The Duke]

Here is the main difference I see: Ford had Watergate to fend off.  More than Iraq or Haliburton or Michael Moore combined, Watergate blew apart public confidence in the Administration and all associated with it.  Bush has a divided nation to overcome, Ford had a hostile nation to overcome.

That was kinda a part of the point I was trying to make.

And I agree with you.

[Sk]

I'm saying this as a prediction and not as a value judgement: Bush will lose reelection, and it won't be close, as Ford's loss to Carter was.

The long-term trend of this election indicates a pervasive erosion in Republican support of Bush. Hell, you could even argue that Bush's slipping poll numbers indicate the erosion of Republican voters, period.

It is getting harder and harder to justify voting Republican nowadays. The GOP, since the expulsion of Gingrich, Phil Gramm, and Dick Armey, has no principle. Since the troika's departure, the congressional GOP does nothing but manufacture one pork project and pandering social welfare spending bill after another.

Worse still, Bush unflinchingly signs them, only to face abuse from GOP congressmen on CNN about "fiscal irresponsibility". Olympia Snowe is particularly grating in this respect.  

Even in his manful prosecution of the War on Terror, Bush receives not a whisper of support from any GOP senator or congressman. Even Tom DeLay hedges his words of support.

When the GOP loses control of Congress in these four years, all I can say is "Good riddance."  

In addition, voters are increasingly stupid. Not merely stupid in the maleducated sense, but obscenely self-centeredly stupid: Begging to the Congress to hand them one more free lunch; whining before the federal courts to concoct one more "emanation and penumbra" from the Constitution to justify perversion; gyrating on the streets of NYC and Seattle for absolute capitulation to the Religion of Peace. Worst stupidity of all: claiming toxic hatred of our American way of life is "patriotic."

The recent rejuvenation of the Democratic Party in places outside of Hollywood and the Upper West Side is evidence of Americans' metastasizing stupidity.

Only my optimism about my own future prevents me from feeling absolute disgust about the future of the US as a whole.

Couldn't have said it better! Sometimes I feel like jumping ship to the Libertarians, even though I disagree with them on some social issues.

[opebo]

I think Bush's situation is more like that of Nixon in 1972 than Bush in 1976.  However I doubt he'll get quite the landslide Nixon did, though he will do much better than Ford.

[NHPolitico]

Am I right or am I a jackass?

Ummm...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Am I right or am I a jackass?

Without commenting on which you are, it is possible to be both at the same time.

Now that I've got that out of the way, I see Bush and Ford as facing very different situations.  The closest parallel for Bush with a former president is probably with McKinley, in which case he had best stay out of Buffalo.

[12th Doctor]

Am I right or am I a jackass?

Without commenting on which you are, it is possible to be both at the same time.

Now that I've got that out of the way, I see Bush and Ford as facing very different situations.  The closest parallel for Bush with a former president is probably with McKinley, in which case he had best stay out of Buffalo.

Well, Bush was elected on a "0" year, unforutunatly.  I have spoken with a Secret Service agent (acctually he is the 3rd in charge over-all of the service) and the fact is not at all lost on them.  The Secret Service is very superstitious.  That's why they have never bought another Ford limo.

[muon2]

Am I right or am I a jackass?

Without commenting on which you are, it is possible to be both at the same time.

Now that I've got that out of the way, I see Bush and Ford as facing very different situations.  The closest parallel for Bush with a former president is probably with McKinley, in which case he had best stay out of Buffalo.

I agree with the McKinley parallel. There are a facinating number of parallels: highly partisan electorate, unilateral war, shift to a interventionist foreign policy, tax cuts and tariffs, labor problems in PA/OH/WV, ... BTW Rove is a student of the McKinley administration.