Why is Iowa the way it is?

[Reds4]

I wanted to start this topic to see if anyone could try to fill me in on why Iowa is so democratic? Obviously it is a close state and could go to Bush, but most including myself see Kerry as the favorite there.
 Iowa seems like a state that would be more Republican, Iowa has a huge amount of farmers, like Kansas and Nebraska, which are both strong GOP states. Iowa though continues to hold to its Democratic ways. I understand it borders both Minnesota and Illinois which are both known as Dem strongholds for the most part, but other than pure location can anyone fill me in on why such a rural state would be so democratic? Looking forward to hearing your opinions.

[Keystone Phil]

They really aren't that Democratic. They have a GOP Legislature, Republican U.S. Senator and 4 members of their Congressional delegation (out of 5) are Republicans. They really are a swing state. Look at the Iowa results from the 2000 election and you'll see how close it is.

[Reds4]

Right, but I am wondering why Iowa isn't a 10 point win for Bush, more like Nebraska or Kansas.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm guessing social issues are of more importance to voters in Kansas and Nebreska. That's my guess for why they go so strongly Republican.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Because Iowa isn't really that rural. Even though landwise it is, the large chunk of the population lives in Sioux City, Dubuque, Des Moines, Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Davenport, ect. And while the western part of the state outside of Sioux City is extremely conservative like Nebraska and Kansas, (especially the northwestern part, go look at my thread in U.S. General Discussion on that), it's also not too populated. It has only about 20% of Iowa's population. The eastern part is much more populated and urban, and the urban areas tend to be Democratic and outvote the rural parts. It's actually very similar to Minnesota, except the urban population is much more spread out.

[jacob_101]

The Old Democratic Party has had a huge impact on older voters in the region.  So strong that they won't vote for any other party.  Young voters in the region vote more Republican than grandma and grandpa.  Iowa will become more Republican as time goes on, just like Minnesota and Wisconsin are.  This is just my opinion anyway.  I know quite a few people from the great depression era and there social values are not in line with the Democratic party of today, but it's like they have blinders on.

[© tweed]

I think Iowa's Dukakis' second best state in 1988, behind only Rhode Island!

Anyway, IA seems to be 'distancing', and Kerry is up about 5 there in my estimation.

[Akno21]

Iowa may look heavily Democratic now because it has survived through the bombardment of Democrats nationwide coming and staying there in preparation for the caucuses. The GOP struggled to get out a word.

[© tweed]

Iowa may look heavily Democratic now because it has survived through the bombardment of Democrats nationwide coming and staying there in preparation for the caucuses. The GOP struggled to get out a word.

Then why is NH still extrodainarily close?

[WalterMitty]

iowa is trending republican.  however, i think kerry is ahead at this point.  im still predicting kerry will pick vilsack and iowa will be off the table.

without vilsack, kerry probably wins iowa 2-3 points.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I think Iowa's Dukakis' second best state in 1988, behind only Rhode Island!

Anyway, IA seems to be 'distancing', and Kerry is up about 5 there in my estimation.

that was mainly because of the farm crisis of the late 80's. the economy was absolutely pitiful there. Note that Dukakis didn't do too bad in the Dakotas either.

In the last three elections though, Iowa has been about a good as a bellweather as you can get. Compare the results there to the national ones. Almost a perfect mirror, even for Perot and Nader.

[Rococo4]

Bush actually had more votes than Gore on Election Day 2000, but Gore overtook him with the absentee ballots.  This state seems headed safely for Kerry this time around though.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I wanted to start this topic to see if anyone could try to fill me in on why Iowa is so democratic? Obviously it is a close state and could go to Bush, but most including myself see Kerry as the favorite there.
 Iowa seems like a state that would be more Republican, Iowa has a huge amount of farmers, like Kansas and Nebraska, which are both strong GOP states. Iowa though continues to hold to its Democratic ways. I understand it borders both Minnesota and Illinois which are both known as Dem strongholds for the most part, but other than pure location can anyone fill me in on why such a rural state would be so democratic? Looking forward to hearing your opinions.

Its actually very simple.

In 2000 and the last twenty years the Democrats have (in Presidential elections) had a better on the ground apparatus in Iowa which concentrated on the "no party" registrants.  They worked this group hard, and won as a result.

I understand that this year the Republicans will be giving the Democrats a contest with this group on the ground.

The reason this is so important is that unless "no party" registrants are contacted, persuaded and (those persuaded) are gotten to vote, they generally don't vote (as opposed to party registrants).

In short, the Democrats have reaped the harvest of their work while the Republicans have (in the past) failed to do the necessary grunt work.

In truth, this is somewhat easier for the Democrats as the "no party" registrants tend to be easier to contact in the urban counties (where the Democrats have their base).

If there is anyone in Iowa reading this thread, I would be interested to see whether they have seen Republican efforts being geared up for this in Iowa.

[lth2h]

Then why is NH still extrodainarily close?

An influx of people from the Free State Project With a little luck Badnarik will hopfully do well there