SUSA: Bonilla With Decent Lead in Runoff

[Sam Spade]

Sounds close to being right %-wise, with usual MOE caveats. 

Of course, with it being a runoff, turnout is a huge issue (especially in this CD) and probably skews the sample somewhat (though which way I don't know). 

I also doubt 47.9% of RV are LV in this election (it'll probably be about 30%-35% max), but who knows for sure.

I would like to see a regional breakdown to make sure that those rural border areas have been properly surveyed, but you can't get everything.

[Sam Spade]

Is there any chance that Rodriguez could win this?

Remember how Mary Landrieu won her runoff in 2002 just weeks after big Republican gains. There can always be a surprise.

I have always suspected the big Republican gains helped Landrieu there, frankly.  There is actually pretty decent historical evidence that elections held directly after (like a month or two) strong national gains (by one party or another) tend to go the other way.

I guess the partisans just conclude, we've made the big gains, now let's focus on governing and don't bother to show up to vote.  I have no better explanation than this tautology.

Anyway, a Louisiana runoff is much different than a TX-23 runoff because of the big issue of turnout I mentioned above in a low-turnout area (which becomes super-low in runoffs typically.

I was relooking over the numbers, and roughly only 40% of RV showed up at the general election.  You'll be lucky to see half that number come runoff time.

I'm going to take a rough guesstimate and say that Rodriguez needs to, at minimum, win Bexar County, in order to have a shot.  If he doesn't, he won't, because he's not a good candidate to do battle in the rural border areas.  It can certainly happen, because these are low turnout elections, but I would believe the chance would be stronger if I saw more Dem money being spent here.

[Sam Spade]

Mildly vulnerable, but much less so than Lampson. This district is pretty swing-ish. It has a slight lean to the GOP but would probably reelect a Dem incumbent by a wide margin. That said, Rodriguez is a terrible campaigner, so he would probably be vulnerable anywhere that isn't ultra-safe.

Your analysis is correct in some areas, wildly wrong in others, but that's ok.

What's interesting is that I'm willing to bet (and I'd have to do hardcore numbers on this) that this may be the only CD in Texas where the Hispanic population as a % is actually declining.  Western Bexar County is highly exurban and growing fast and the center of Hispanic population in the CD, South Bexar (inside Loop 410), is pretty stagnant population-wise.  The rural counties are, of course, fairly stagnant.  They aren't Webb County.