New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

Tradesports odds to win the GOP nomination---trendline since January 1st of this year:



The x-axis is the day number since the first of the year.  Y-axis is the Tradesports odds of winning the GOP nomination.  Purple is McCain.  Yellow is Giuliani.  Light blue is Romney.  Giuliani and McCain lines don't cross yet, because Giuliani's trend isn't well fit by a straight line.  If the McCain and Romney trends were to continue indefinitely, Romney would pass McCain for 2nd place in about 6 weeks or so....but I don't expect these trends to continue indefinitely.

[Mr. Morden]

Tradesports odds to win the Democratic nomination---since January 1st:



The x-axis is the day number since the first of the year.  Y-axis is the Tradesports odds of winning the Democratic nomination.  Purple is Clinton.  Yellow is Obama.  Didn't plot the trendlines this time, as they're pretty much flat.  It's weird that Clinton and Obama seem to go up and down at the same time.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Long shot Democrats go down.
McCain continues to tank.

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 21.6
Edwards 12.0
Gore 9.2
Richardson 4.0
Biden 2.3
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Dodd 0.2



Republicans
Giuliani 31.5
McCain 28.5
Romney 16.9
Gingrich 5.7
Huckabee 5.6
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 1.3
Powell 0.8
Cheney 0.6
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5

[Reignman]

I can't believe Gore is as high as he is.

[Verily]

Let the punters throw their money away on Gore.

[© tweed]

Still a <30% shot he runs.  Let Clinton/Obama divide and Gore can conquer come autumn.

[Mr. Morden]

Gore has now surpassed Edwards.  He's at 12.0 while Edwards is at 10.7.

[Mr. Morden]

Oops, that didn't last long.  Edwards now ahead of Gore again.  Also, as I type this, the gap between Clinton and Obama has narrowed to 26.4, which is narrowest gap between them in over a month.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore up.
Giuliani hit a record high of 33.3 earlier today.

Democrats
Clinton 49.9
Obama 23.1
Edwards 11.9
Gore 10.9
Richardson 3.9
Biden 2.3
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Corzine 0.1
Bayh 0.1



Republicans
Giuliani 32.6
McCain 28.1
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 5.7
Huckabee 5.0
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 1.3
Powell 0.8
Cheney 0.6
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Paul 0.1
Thompson 0.1
Santorum 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

They reset the last, so I'm listing the last for everyone with a trade.
Strangely, almost every Democrat went down, except Clinton who stayed the same.

Democrats
Clinton 50.0
Obama 21.0
Edwards 10.0
Gore 9.9
Richardson 2.0
Biden 1.9
Vilsack 0.1
Kerry 0.1
Bayh 0.1



Republicans
Giuliani 31.0
McCain 29.7
Romney 17.0
Huckabee 7.0
Hagel 4.3
Gingrich 4.0
Brownback 3.5
Rice 1.3
Bloomberg 0.5
Powell 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Gilmore 0.2
Paul 0.1
Allen 0.1
Santorum 0.1

[Eraserhead]

You would think Obama would be a little higher by now and McCain would be a little lower.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Numbers are unstable today.
Gore passes Edwards


Democrats
Clinton 47.0
Obama 21.0
Gore 11.5
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 2.3
Biden 1.9



Republicans
Giuliani 31.0
McCain 30.0
Romney 18.5
Hagel 4.3
Huckabee 4.2
Gingrich 4.0
Brownback 2.5
Rice 1.3
Bloomberg 0.5

[Reaganfan]

McCain's rise has to be attributed to his annoucement on Letterman.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary is tanking
Obama hit a record high of 25.0 earlier
Giuliani hits a new record high
Gingrich and Hunter surge

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.9
Gore 11.9
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 2.7
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Feingold 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1




Republicans
Giuliani 33.8
McCain 30.5
Romney 16.0
Gingrich 8.0
Huckabee 6.4
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 2.5
Rice 1.5
Hunter 1.4
Cheney 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.2
Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Owens 0.1
Paul 0.1

[Eraserhead]

Hillary is tanking
Obama hit a record high of 25.0 earlier
Giuliani hits a new record high
Gingrich and Hunter surge

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.9
Gore 11.9
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 2.7
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Feingold 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1




Republicans
Giuliani 33.8
McCain 30.5
Romney 16.0
Gingrich 8.0
Huckabee 6.4
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 2.5
Rice 1.5
Hunter 1.4
Cheney 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.2
Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Owens 0.1
Paul 0.1

Thats more like it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

UP: Gore, Romney, Brownback
DOWN: Obama, Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich, Huckabee, Hunter

Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 23.0
Gore 12.9
Edwards 10.0
Richardson 2.7
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Feingold 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Vilsack 0.1




Republicans
Giuliani 32.0
McCain 28.2
Romney 17.5
Gingrich 5.2
Huckabee 4.9
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4
Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Owens 0.1
Paul 0.1
Gilmore 0.1

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's now intrade.com


Democrats
Clinton 46.9
Obama 24.4
Gore 13.0
Edwards 8.8
Richardson 2.7
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.4
Dodd 0.3





Republicans
Giuliani 32.5
McCain 28.2
Romney 18.8
Gingrich 5.9
Huckabee 4.8
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.8
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama and Romney are near a record high
Giuliani is at a record high


Democrats
Clinton 46.0
Obama 24.5
Gore 12.9
Edwards 9.3
Richardson 3.2
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.4



Republicans
Giuliani 34.9
McCain 30.0
Romney 19.7
Gingrich 4.9
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4

[© tweed]

Obama's currently at a record high of 26.0 with his bid/ask at 26.2/26.3.  Clinton down to 45.6, Gore holding at 12.9 and Edwards down in the high single digits.

[Eraserhead]

Obama is now at a record high of 27.0.

Clinton, Gore and Edwards are all down.

Richardson is up to 3.1.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama has the Big Mo... or something.
Nothing that interesting on the Republican side.

Democrats
Clinton 45.5
Obama 28.0
Gore 10.8
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.2
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.3

[© tweed]

Obama hit a high of 30.0 earlier today.  His last trade was at 29.3.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Again, all the excitement seems to be on the Democratic side.

Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 29.3
Gore 11.5
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.0
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.4
Kerry 0.3
Dodd 0.2
Bayh 0.1
Feingold 0.1
Vilsack 0.1

[Eraserhead]

Obama is surging tonight. He is up to 30.0.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama surge


Giuliani tank


Stangely no other Republican seems to be gaining at Giuliani's expense. Maybe they're realizing all their candidates suck.

Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 30.0
Gore 11.6
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.1
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.4
Dodd 0.3





Republicans
Giuliani 27.5
McCain 27.0
Romney 17.8
Gingrich 6.0
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 4.0
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.5
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4