New Tradesports rankings

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

For the full glory of Rudy's implosion:



Somehow this isn't as helpful to McCain as one would think:



Gingrich is up a bit, but Romney's decline more than cancels that out.

WTF, now Rudy is at 34.0? Some serious crap is going on.  He's got an 11.5 point spread between bid and ask.

[Mr. Morden]

Yes, Giuliani has rebounded, as has Romney.  McCain's odds are actually now slightly closer to Romney's than Giuliani's.  Which is stunning, when compared to just a couple of weeks ago.

[Reaganfan]

Yes, Giuliani has rebounded, as has Romney.  McCain's odds are actually now slightly closer to Romney's than Giuliani's.  Which is stunning, when compared to just a couple of weeks ago.

News is that some of McCain's staffers quit when he announced his intention to run on Letterman, and that they should know within two weeks the extent of the damage.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Close to a few month low: Clinton, Edwards, Biden, Dodd, McCain

Close to their record high: Obama, Giuliani, Romney


Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 29.3
Gore 11.5
Edwards 9.5
Richardson 3.0
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.4
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 35.0
McCain 28.0
Romney 19.7
Gingrich 4.9
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4
Thompson 0.4]

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Note that Obama is now 2nd place here:

Winning individual
Clinton 23.0
Obama 19.5
Giuliani 19.0
McCain 17.0
Romney 8.5
Edwards 8.1
Gore 7.9

[Verily]

Looks like the punters agree that Obama "won" Selma.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nothing interesting on the Democratic side.
Giuliani surges to a new record high.
Rice seems incredibly overvalued at 3.1.

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 29.2
Gore 12.3
Edwards 8.5
Richardson 3.3
Biden 1.0
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.3
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 38.0
McCain 27.0
Romney 19.5
Gingrich 4.4
Huckabee 4.7
Brownback 3.1
Rice 3.1
Hagel 2.9
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.6
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4
Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

[Eraserhead]

Damn Giuliani is really getting up there.

[Verily]

Giuliani was undervalued for a long time, but I think he's overvalued now. There is still a lot of kick in the conservative movement within the GOP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hagel is expected to announce something, so he gains at fellow GOP media whore McCain's expense.

Democrats
Clinton 45.1
Obama 29.5
Gore 12.4
Edwards 8.9
Richardson 3.1
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.3
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 37.6
McCain 26.2
Romney 19.5
Gingrich 4.4
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 3.9
Brownback 3.1
Rice 3.1
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.6
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4
Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

[SPC]

I predict that Romney will pass McCain within the next three weeks, at most.

[Eraserhead]

I predict that Romney will pass McCain within the next three weeks, at most.

Maybe if  he stops barely polling outside of the margin of error.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Record high: Obama, Giuliani
Near several month low: Clinton, Edwards, McCain

For the first time ever, Giuliani leads McCain by more than Clinton leads Obama.

Democrats
Clinton 44.0
Obama 29.5
Gore 12.3
Edwards 8.3
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.3
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 24.0
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 5.1
Huckabee 4.1
Hagel 3.6
Brownback 3.1
Rice 3.0
Bloomberg 1.1
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.3
Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

[Eraserhead]

I only wish Clinton started tanking a little later in the year. I don't want her to have a chance to firmly regain her footing.

[Verily]

If she had held on much longer, the media would have begun billing her as a foregone conclusion, and then she'd never have lost.

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, it doesn't make any sense to wish for your candidate to remain the underdog as long as possible before finally breaking out at the last minute.  The bizarre circumstances of 2004 notwithstanding, the later in the game you're able to maintain your status as frontrunner, that harder it gets for anyone else to knock you off.  Better to knock off the frontrunner early if it can be done.  Another thing is that if Obama catches Clinton in the polls soon, it will greatly help his fundraising.  He can't afford to wait too long to catch fire if he wants to raise lots of $.

[Mr. Morden]

Fred Thompson has just been added to Intrade.  I'm very curious to see where his share price ends up.  Right now the bid is 2.0 and the ask is 10.0.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

F. Thompson has been added to the long list of Republicans with over 0.1%.

Democrats
Clinton 44.2
Obama 29.9
Gore 12.4
Edwards 8.6
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
McCain 25.4
Romney 18.3
Gingrich 5.5
Hagel 5.2
Huckabee 3.1
Rice 3.0
Brownback 2.7
F. Thompson 2.0
Bloomberg 1.8
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Allen 0.2
Tancredo 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson's now up to 3.5, which puts him in fourth place.  Gingrich, Hagel, and especially Huckabee are all tanking.  Huckabee's at his lowest level in months.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Pretty boring on the Democratic side.
Fred Thompson is the flavor of the week on the Republican side.
Front-runner Giuliani hits new record highs.
There are now twice as many Republicans than Democrats who are over 0.2.

Democrats
Clinton 44.3
Obama 30.0
Gore 11.6
Edwards 8.6
Richardson 3.4
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.4
Warner 0.2
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 41.8
McCain 24.0
Romney 16.8
Gingrich 5.5
F. Thompson 3.9
Hagel 3.5
Brownback 2.8
Huckabee 2.5
Rice 1.8
Bloomberg 1.0
Cheney 0.5
Hunter 0.4
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee has really been hit hard by the emergence of Fred Thompson.

[minionofmidas]

Ron Paul not even listed? Ouch.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ron Paul not even listed? Ouch.

Even if I had listed those trading at 0.1 (which I didn't), he still failed my other criteria of having a bid.

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson is surging.  He's up to 6.3 now.  How long before his odds at winning the GOP nomination surpass Edwards's odds for the Dem. nomination?  Expect some big movement on Thompson after his appearance tomorrow morning on Fox News Sunday.  (The movement could be positive or negative, depending on what he says about the chances that he'll run for president.)  Then expect big movement on Hagel on Monday when he announces his plans for the future.

[TomC]

Edwards below Gore? Yikes!