New Tradesports rankings

[MasterJedi]

There's two Thompson's on there, who's who?

[Reignman]

Why does Gravel get 1.0? I don't think he's being officially recognized by the party...

[Eraserhead]

How is Gore still getting 9.0?

[Mr. Morden]

Why does Gravel get 1.0? I don't think he's being officially recognized by the party...

What do you mean by "officially recognized by the party"?

[Jacobtm]

Anyone who buys Richardson or Huckabee is gonna get to sell them for at least 10 when next winter comes.

[Reignman]

Why does Gravel get 1.0? I don't think he's being officially recognized by the party...

What do you mean by "officially recognized by the party"?

Was LaRouche every included in any primary debates?

[Mr. Morden]

Why does Gravel get 1.0? I don't think he's being officially recognized by the party...

What do you mean by "officially recognized by the party"?

Was LaRouche every included in any primary debates?

No, but Gravel isn't insane like LaRouche is.  Even Morry Taylor made it into the '96 GOP debates, so I would imagine that Gravel can get into the '08 debates if he wants to.  You do have a point though in that the media almost never mentions Gravel when it lists '08 candidates.  But that's the media's fault, not the Democratic Party's.

Oh, and Gravel has been included in numerous '08 polls, which is something that was never done for LaRouche, AFAIK.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Now that some of the recent announcements have been priced in:

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.9
Gore 7.8
Biden 2.8
Richardson 2.4
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.0
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Hagel 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.8
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.1
Thompson 0.8
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6

[SPQR]

Paul having the same chances as Richardson? LOL

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Paul having the same chances as Richardson? LOL

Here it is with it forced to be in the range between bid and ask, to reduce that problem. Paratheses show last if different.

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 20.0
Edwards 15.9
Gore 7.8
Richardson 2.8
Biden 2.5 (2.
Kerry 1.4 (1.5)
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Clark 0.9 (1.0)
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.0
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 7.1 (6.
Hagel 4.1 (3.9)
Gingrich 4.0 (3.5)
Brownback 3.2
Rice 2.8
Paul 2.0 (2.9)
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.1
Thompson 0.7 (0.
Bush 0.7 (0.6)
Allen 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
Gilmore 0.5 (0.7)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gainers: Hagel, Gingrich
Losers: Edwards, Clinton, Huckabee, Paul, Allen, Powell, Thompson

Democrats
Clinton 46.3
Obama 20.3
Edwards 13.8
Gore 8.0
Richardson 3.0
Biden 2.8
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Clark 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 42.2
Romney 16.8
Giuliani 16.4
Huckabee 5.7
Hagel 4.5
Gingrich 4.2
Brownback 3.1
Rice 2.8
Cheney 1.0
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
Paul 0.6
Powell 0.6
Hunter 0.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

With Kerry out:

GAIN: Clinton, Edwards
LOSS: Obama, KERRY

Democrats
Clinton 47.4
Obama 18.6
Edwards 15.1
Gore 7.8
Richardson 2.7
Biden 2.7
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.6

Republicans

McCain 42.2
Romney 16.7
Giuliani 16.3
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 5.2
Hagel 4.1
Brownback 3.0
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not much movement.
Do Rice, Powell, Jeb Bush, or Cheney really have a chance?

Democrats
Clinton 48.5
Obama 18.8
Edwards 15.8
Gore 7.6
Richardson 2.6
Biden 2.5
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.6

Republicans

McCain 42.2
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 16.1
Huckabee 6.0
Gingrich 5.2
Hagel 4.1
Brownback 3.7
Rice 2.3
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.5

[Gabu]

Do Rice, Powell, Jeb Bush, or Cheney really have a chance?

They possibly might have had one if they were running (besides Jeb Bush, for obvious reasons...), but I believe that all of them have stated that they have no intentions to do so.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I've listed the last trade of every candidate with a bid.

Gore surge
McCain, Gilmore, Gravel lose

Democrats
Clinton 48.1
Obama 18.9
Edwards 15.9
Gore 9.8
Richardson 2.4
Biden 2.1
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 0.7
Clark 0.7
Warner 0.7
Kerry 0.3
Gravel 0.2
Bayh 0.2
Corzine 0.2
Kucinch 0.1

Republicans

McCain 40.1
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 5.8
Gingrich 5.3
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.3
Rice 2.1
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.8
Hunter 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Allen 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Thompson 0.3
Owens 0.1
Santorum 0.1
Sanford 0.1


No bid Democrats: Feingold, Schweitzer, Dean, Daschle, Rendell, Bredesen, Lieberman, Powell, Ford, Leahy, Blagojevich, Easley
No bid Republicans: Paul, Gilmore, Warner, Frist, Barbour, Graham, Pawlenty, Dole, Schwarz, Ridge, Franks

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Up: Gore, Guilani
Down: Obama, Richardson, Vilsack

Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 17.7
Edwards 15.5
Gore 11.1
Richardson 2.0
Biden 2.0
Vilsack 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5


Republicans

McCain 40.1
Giuliani 18.0
Romney 17.0
Huckabee 5.8
Gingrich 5.1
Hagel 4.2
Brownback 3.3
Rice 2.1
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.6

[Eraserhead]

What is it with Gore thing?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gingrich passes, and Hagel ties, Huckabee

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 18.6
Edwards 15.1
Gore 11.3
Richardson 2.0
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.0
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 40.1
Giuliani 18.0
Romney 17.0
Gingrich 4.6
Huckabee 4.3
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.4
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Allen 0.4
Pataki 0.4
Thompson 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

The two frontrunners seem to be going in opposite directions on Tradesports, and I think Tradesports is wrong on both counts.  McCain is experiencing a Tradesports slump (now below 40 for the first time in ages), but I think McCain is actually in a very strong position to win the GOP nomination.  Yes, he's got problems, but you can't beat somebody with nobody, and I'm becoming less and less impressed by McCain's rivals by the day.  Sure, McCain still has some problems with the base, but you can say the same for every single one of his rivals, save Tancredo (who I do not believe can win).  McCain is incredibly lucky that folks like Allen and Frist self-destructed so thoroughly, and that Owens' messy divorce in '05 led to him sitting out '08 as well.

And while McCain's ultra-hawkish position on Iraq may hurt him in the general election, I'm yet to be convinced that it will hurt him much in a GOP primary.  And in fact, it may help him with the base, in that, by seeing him take such a strongly conservative position on the most important issue of the day, the base may become convinced that the can't possibly be quite the squishy moderate that they thought he was.

On the flip side, Hillary Clinton seems to have recovered a bit from her December slide on Tradesports, but I think Tradesports is wrong there as well.  To me, she looks more vulnerable than ever.  The only places in the country where you already have a large number of people paying attention to the campaign are Iowa and New Hampshire.  And we now have multiple polls out of both states that indicate that Edwards and Obama are tied or ahead of Clinton in both states.  So how can she still have such a huge lead on Tradesports?  It doesn't make much sense.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore drops, Biden gains
McCain hits a several month low
Hagel gain. He and Gingrich now lead Huckabee.

Democrats
Clinton 46.7
Obama 18.4
Edwards 15.9
Gore 9.0
Richardson 2.3
Biden 2.3
Vilsack 1.0
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 37.3
Giuliani 19.0
Romney 16.8
Hagel 5.5
Gingrich 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Brownback 4.0
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Allen 0.4
Thompson 0.4
Tancredo 0.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

UP: Gore, Clark, Allen, Powell
DOWN: Biden

Democrats
Clinton 46.7
Obama 18.8
Edwards 15.3
Gore 10.2
Richardson 2.3
Biden 1.8
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.3
Giuliani 18.6
Romney 17.2
Hagel 5.5
Gingrich 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Brownback 3.7
Powell 1.6
Cheney 1.0
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Thompson 0.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

UP: Clinton, Gore
DOWN: Hagel, Gingrich

Democrats
Clinton 48.3
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.0
Gore 11.4
Richardson 2.1
Clark 1.5
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 1.1
Dodd 0.5
Warner 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.2
Giuliani 18.8
Romney 17.4
Hagel 5.0
Huckabee 4.6
Brownback 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
Rice 2.1
Powell 1.5
Cheney 1.0
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.7
Hunter 0.7
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.5
Thompson 0.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

State odds for Democrats:

DC 95.0
MA 90.0
RI 90.0
NY 89.5
CA 89.0
VT 87.0
CT 85.0
DE 85.0
HI 85.0
IL 85.0
MD 85.0
NJ 80.0
MI 75.0
OR 75.0
PA 75.0
WA 75.0
ME 70.0
MN 70.0
WI 69.0
NH 65.0
NM 60.0
FL 50.0
IA 50.0
OH 50.0
MO 45.0
VA 35.0
CO 30.0
AZ 30.0
NV 30.0
TN 25.5
AR 25.0
WV 25.0
IN 20.0
LA 20.0
NC 20.0
SC 15.5
KY 15.0
KS 15.0
GA 15.0
AK 15.0
MT 15.0
NE 15.0
SD 15.0
ID 10.0
MS 10.0
ND 10.0
OK 10.0
WY 10.0
AL 8.0
TX 5.0
UT 5.0

Party winner
Democrat 55.3
Republican 43.0
Field 1.8

DemHouse 75.0
DemSenate 76.5

[minionofmidas]

State odds for Democrats:

DC 95.0

Huh? What? Why so low?

[Rob]

Huh? What? Why so low?

That's what I was thinking.

Also, Dems have an equal shot at taking Ohio and Florida? Ohio should be 55 or so, with Florida somewhere below 50.