New Tradesports rankings

[Eraserhead]

Winning individual is kind of amusing:

Clinton 44.3
Giuliani 16.3
Thompson 9.0
Romney 8.5
Obama 7.6
Gore 6.5
Edwards 3.0
McCain 2.5
Paul 2.5

lol at all of those being as high as they are. I dig the new sig by the way BRTD.

[© tweed]

Gore's bid/offer is now 10.0/10.3, meaning he will likely cross into double digits some time today for the first time since late June.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Gore's boost could well be from the lead up to the Nobel announcement which is in a week's time. Gore et al are the front-runners this year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who the f**k are these morons bidding on Gore?

[Mr. Morden]

Who the f**k are these morons bidding on Gore?

Probably some of the same people who bet on Hillary Clinton four years ago:



Notice how even after Kerry had the nomination all wrapped up, there was still some activity in the Clinton market, with her trading at a few percent as late as June 2004.  Lord knows what kind of scenario these people were envisioning for her to grab the nomination at the convention at that point.

[Mr. Morden]

Winning individual is kind of amusing:

Clinton 44.3
Giuliani 16.3
Thompson 9.0
Romney 8.5
Obama 7.6
Gore 6.5
Edwards 3.0
McCain 2.5
Paul 2.5

At the moment, the winning individual odds on Gore are up to 7.7 (while Obama's up to 8.2).  So Gore is just slightly less likely than Obama is to go all the way and win the GE next year?  And there's a greater chance that Gore will go all the way than there is that Edwards will simply win the nomination?  Does that seem right to anyone here?

[Mr. Morden]

In the Dem. nomination market, Obama has moved down to 13.0, and Gore has moved up to 11.5.  Could Gore actually pass Obama?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, these Gore fanboys sure are delusional. But hey, it's their money that's going down the toilet.

[© tweed]

Gore bid/offer is now above 11; bid 11.0 ask 11.4.

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the price graphs for the two parties' 2008 nominations from the Iowa Electronic Markets:





Romney has managed to stay much more competitive with Giuliani in the IEM than he has in Intrade.  Other than that, the two markets seem to be pretty similar.

[© tweed]

winning individual: Gore 8.4 Obama 7.2

[Eraserhead]

winning individual: Gore 8.4 Obama 7.2

Wow. Just wow.

[© tweed]

makes you think they know something we don't.

[Speed of Sound]

makes you think they know something we don't.

Youd like to believe it, wouldnt ya?

[Eraserhead]

makes you think they know something we don't.

Youd like to believe it, wouldnt ya?

^^^^

lol. Don't get too excited there Tweed.

[© tweed]

I'm not.  if they really know something the stock would be much higher.  besides I doubt Gore would like his advisors making money off of a conspiracy.

or maybe it's Al himself.  he could probably rake in millions by bidding low and then declaring, then dropping out a week later.  that's what I'd do if I was in his situations.  bid at 10, declare, sell at 50, and then drop out.  $$$$$$$.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

makes you think they know something we don't.

And maybe a bunch of people know that Paul has massive dirt on all the other candidates that could win him the nomination.

Or maybe there's just lots of idiots bidding on Paul and Gore.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gore surges into double digits. Obama continues to slide, no longer leading Gore by much.

Paul is up a bit, McCain down a bit.

Democrats
Clinton 66.2
Obama 13.8
Gore 11.1
Edwards 6.1
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 39.4
Romney 23.3
Thompson 22.4
Paul 6.6
McCain 5.2
Huckabee 3.2
Rice 1.3
Gingrich 0.3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Gore's almost in second place. Idiots.

And who are the morons bidding on Rice?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Rice has actually seen a jump recently. WTF?

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, Intrade also gives Gore a 12.5% chance of winning the Iowa caucus, which means he's ahead of Edwards in that market as well (though the volume is low).  And the NH win market is:

Clinton 85.0
Obama 10.0
Gore 5.0
Edwards 0.5

So apparently Gore is 10 times more likely to win NH than Edwards?

Keep in mind, the filing deadline for the NH primary is Nov. 2, so Gore would have to enter the race pretty darn soon for him to even be on the ballot in NH, let alone win it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Markets are closed, so I'm not listing anyone at 0.1.

Edwards below 6 for the first time in a while.

Giuliani, Paul, Huckabee drop a bit, while Rice gains.

Democrats
Clinton 66.6
Obama 13.4
Gore 11.0
Edwards 5.8
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.3


Republicans
Giuliani 38.7
Romney 23.6
Thompson 22.0
Paul 6.1
McCain 5.2
Huckabee 2.7
Rice 1.7
Gingrich 0.2

[© tweed]

Gore's bid and offer are now at or above 12.0 for the first time since March, I believe.  the stock is on absolute fire right now and he's one more push away from overtaking Obama, probably for the first time in 2007.

[Mr. Morden]

The contract on Gore entering the race is up to 27.0.  Aside from a brief blip a few days ago, that's the highest it's been in three months.  Meanwhile, the Democratic nomination market is now:

Clinton 68.0
Obama 13.0
Gore 12.2
Edwards 5.6

So yes, Gore is on the verge of passing Obama.  And in the winning individual market, it's:

Clinton 45.1
Giuliani 15.5
Gore 8.8
Romney 8.7
Thompson 7.0
Obama 6.9

So Gore is the third most likely person to be the next president, while Obama is only sixth?

Meanwhile, the contract on Edwards dropping out of the race before the end of the year has gone up to 15.0, and in the GOP nomination market, Thompson is dropping fast.  It's now:

Giuliani 39.2
Romney 24.0
Thompson 19.5

It wasn't long ago that Thompson was ahead of Romney.  I guess his debate performance didn't go over too well with Intraders.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

As mentioned, there's some major movement going on.

Gore surges to 12.2, only weakly trailing Obama for 2nd place.

Thompson sinks. McCain now ties Paul.

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Obama 13.0
Gore 12.2
Edwards 5.6
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.2
Romney 24.0
Thompson 19.5
Paul 6.0
McCain 6.0
Huckabee 2.8
Rice 1.7
Gingrich 0.2