New Tradesports rankings

[© tweed]

Gore tied with Obama at last transaction (13.0)

[True Democrat]

[member of draft gore movement]

omg gore is buying stock himself in large numbers so that everyone knows he is running!!!1!!!!!111!!

gore is definitely going to run.  right after he wins the nobel peace prize he will announce and he will soar to 40% in the nationwide polls.

[/member of draft gore movement]

[Sam Spade]

Should have bought some McCain a few weeks ago after his good debate performance.  I suspect he may have more of a shot at winning the nomination than Obama does at this point in the game.

(if I actually did play the game)

[Mr. Morden]

OK, a possible explanation for why the "Edwards to drop out by Dec. 31st" share price nearly doubled today: A few bloggers, like Mickey Kaus:

http://www.slate.com/id/2175509/#metinabar

are peddling a story from the National Enquirer that claims that Edwards is having / has recently had an extramarital affair.  It's from the Enquirer, so I don't give it a lot of credence, but these kind of rumors tend to scare Intrade investors into hedging their bets.  Same thing happened to Kerry in 2004, when the Alex Polier rumors started up.

[Eraserhead]

OK, a possible explanation for why the "Edwards to drop out by Dec. 31st" share price nearly doubled today: A few bloggers, like Mickey Kaus:

http://www.slate.com/id/2175509/#metinabar

are peddling a story from the National Enquirer story that claims that Edwards is having / has recently had an extramarital affair.  It's from the Enquirer, so I don't give it a lot of credence, but these kind of rumors tend to scare Intrade investors into hedging their bets.  Same thing happened to Kerry in 2004, when the Alex Polier rumors started up.

I doubt this goes anywhere.

[© tweed]

Gore has surpassed Obama in the Dem. nom. market for 2nd place on last transaction (13.1 v. 12.0 and leads by more on a bid-ask split (Gore 13.65 Obama 11.7)

[Mr. Morden]

We're now at:

Clinton 67.5
Gore 13.8
Obama 11.5
Edwards 4.9

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Nobel laureate Al Gore has quite a day, he goes up, then he goes down.  Edwards is basically a record low, and Clinton basically a record high.

On the Nobel laureate free side, Thompson has been crashing, and Romney and Paul have been gaining.

Democrats
Clinton 69.3
Obama 11.5
Gore 9.5
Edwards 4.0
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.8
Romney 25.3
Thompson 16.5
Paul 7.2
McCain 5.7
Huckabee 3.0
Rice 1.8
Gingrich 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson is seriously crashing.  His share price has lost almost a third of its value since before the debate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Thompson is seriously crashing.  His share price has lost almost a third of its value since before the debate.

The guy just plain sucks at running for President.  Debates, fundraising, personal appearances—he's bad at it all.

[Frodo]

Thompson is seriously crashing.  His share price has lost almost a third of its value since before the debate.

The guy just plain sucks at running for President.  Debates, fundraising, personal appearances—he's bad at it all.

He would have been better off remaining on 'Law & Order'.  He will never be able to replicate Reagan's feat. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Remember how GOPers a few months ago kept telling us about how we better be afraid of Thompson, and yes he still can win despite being a Bush clone and all that? Hahaha.

Gore 9.5
Paul 7.2
Rice 1.8

Wow, Intrade is still full of f**king morons.

Well looking at Iowa Electronic Markets we have "Rest of Field" almost tied with Obama on the Dem side (probably almost all of those being Gore fanboys) and and it about 10 and above McCain on the GOP side (probably almost all Paul fanboys). So they're everywhere.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton down, Gore up.  Edwards keeps sliding.

Thompson continues his crash and burn.

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Obama 11.0
Gore 11.0
Edwards 3.7
Richardson 0.8
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.5
Romney 25.1
Thompson 15.5
Paul 6.9
McCain 6.0
Huckabee 3.4
Rice 2.0
Gingrich 0.2

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Remember how GOPers a few months ago kept telling us about how we better be afraid of Thompson, and yes he still can win despite being a Bush clone and all that? Hahaha.

Gore 9.5
Paul 7.2
Rice 1.8

Wow, Intrade is still full of f**king morons.

Tell me about it.  I've made $50 off them in the last few months.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton up. Obama finally leading Gore again. Edwards' endorsements don't seem to be helping him on InTrade.

Thompson slightly recovers.  McCain up.

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Obama 11.2
Gore 10.5
Edwards 3.4
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 39.5
Romney 25.2
Thompson 16.2
Paul 7.3
McCain 6.7
Huckabee 3.0
Rice 1.9
Gingrich 0.3

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Probability that they win if they get the nomination
Winning individual / Nomination Odds

Gore 97
Clinton 66.6
Edwards 63
Obama 58.9
Paul 45
Thompson 40.6
Giuliani 38.7
McCain 37
Romney 30.0

[True Democrat]

Probability that they win if they get the nomination
Winning individual / Nomination Odds

Gore 97
Clinton 66.6
Edwards 63
Obama 58.9
Paul 45
Thompson 40.6
Giuliani 38.7
McCain 37
Romney 30.0

Tradesports just gets crazier and crazier every time I look at numbers like this.

[© tweed]

Probability that they win if they get the nomination
Winning individual / Nomination Odds

Gore 97
Clinton 66.6
Edwards 63
Obama 58.9
Paul 45
Thompson 40.6
Giuliani 38.7
McCain 37
Romney 30.0

Tradesports just gets crazier and crazier every time I look at numbers like this.

the market isn't meant to be extrapolated like that.  don't read too far into it.

[Mr. Morden]

In terms of trading volume over the entire lifetime of the market, the Gore stock has had the highest total volume of anyone on the Democratic nomination market.  That means more people have been betting on or against Gore than anyone else.  In the Dem VP market, the volume is highest on Gore by a huge margin...55,000 shares traded on him, ahead of second place Obama, with 3000 shares traded.  And in the "winning individual" market, the volume on Gore is second to Clinton.

I'm assuming that what's happening is that most people look at all the share prices, and think that most of them are somewhat sane, so they don't bother betting on them.  But sane people look at the Gore share price, realize that it's inflated and a good $ making opportunity, and bet against Gore, while the Gore fanboys just keep taking their bets.  So loads of Gore shares end up getting traded, while there isn't as much activity for the others.

[Verily]

Probability that they win if they get the nomination
Winning individual / Nomination Odds

Gore 97
Clinton 66.6
Edwards 63
Obama 58.9
Paul 45
Thompson 40.6
Giuliani 38.7
McCain 37
Romney 30.0

Tradesports just gets crazier and crazier every time I look at numbers like this.

Very helpful in terms of knowing where to bet, though. Paul would get crushed in the general election; selling him for the nomination is value, but selling him for winning the whole thing is even more value. Similar applies to Thompson and Gore, who should not be nearly so high on winning individual. Even if Gore does jump in and win the Democratic nomination, his odds to win the general election would not be 97% (so you can cover your bet against him to win the general by buying him to win the nomination).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Now that the final Q3 numbers are out...

Gore slightly down. Giuliani a bit up.



Democrats
Clinton 69.4
Obama 11.2
Gore 10.0
Edwards 3.5
Richardson 0.7
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.2
Romney 25.0
Thompson 15.8
Paul 7.3
McCain 6.9
Huckabee 2.9
Rice 1.9
Gingrich 0.3

[© tweed]

Gore's stock has crashed and burned with his repeat announcement that he "has no plans" to run for president again.

[Eraserhead]

Gore's stock has crashed and burned with his repeat announcement that he "has no plans" to run for president again.

Finally.

[Erc]

Gore crashing, as said, other stocks up in rough proportion to their poll standings:

Clinton: 73.8  [Lifetime high]
Obama: 12.9
Gore: 5.1
Edwards: 4.5
Richardson: 0.8
Biden: 0.4
Dodd: 0.3

Giuliani: 40.6
Romney: 25.8
Thompson: 16.1
Paul: 7.4
McCain: 6.7
Huckabee: 3.1
Rice: 2.0
Gingrich: 0.3

[Mr. Morden]

That's an epic collapse for Gore.  He's down to 4.8 right now, which means the Gore shares have lost more than 50% of their value in just the last 12 hours.  And as far as I can tell, it's not because of any one event that occured yesterday or today.  It's just because the market suddenly realized that the Gore shares were absurdly overvalued.  Oh, and he's down to 4.4 in the winning individual market, so there's been a huge collapse there as well.