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Author Topic: New Tradesports rankings  (Read 181835 times)
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jfern
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E: -7.38, S: -8.36

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« Reply #925 on: November 14, 2007, 11:38:45 PM »

Obama down. No corresponding gains.

It's a wild fight for 3rd place on the Republican side. McCain drops from 3rd to 6th. Paul goes from 4th to 3rd. Huckabee surges from 6th to 4th, and Thomspon stays at 5th.

Democrats
Clinton 71.0
Obama 16.8
Edwards 6.0
Gore 3.8
Richardson 0.8
Dodd 0.3
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 42.7
Romney 31.4
Paul 7.8
Huckabee 7.5
Thompson 6.7
Huckabee 5.6
Rice 0.9
Gingrich 0.3
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Jake
dubya2004
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Posts: 18,621
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E: -0.90, S: -0.35

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« Reply #926 on: November 15, 2007, 03:16:56 AM »

So, if I was 100% sure Mitt Romney wouldn't be the nominee, I would short him now, therefore "betting" those with his stock that he wouldn't win?

But he will be...he will be, and Democrats around the country are grateful.

It was an example.
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jfern
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« Reply #927 on: November 17, 2007, 02:40:51 PM »

Obama, Edwards drop. Gore (!) gains.

Giuliani takes a hit (Kerik?). Huckabee takes 3rd place for possibly the first time.  Thompson isn't so close to the candidates in 3rd-5th places any more. Rice (!) gains.

Democrats
Clinton 71.6
Obama 15.8
Edwards 5.0
Gore 4.8
Richardson 0.7
Dodd 0.3
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 40.3
Romney 30.7
Huckabee 8.6
McCain 7.9
Paul 7.6
Thompson 6.0
Rice 1.8
Gingrich 0.3
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #928 on: November 17, 2007, 11:08:01 PM »

Clinton has surged to 50% on winning individual for (I think) the first time ever:

Clinton 50.0
Giuliani 16.6
Romney 10.0
Obama 8.7
Paul 3.8
Gore 3.4
Huckabee 3.0
McCain 2.5
Thompson 2.4
Edwards 1.8
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HappyWarrior
hannibal
Junior Chimp
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E: -3.87, S: -0.35

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« Reply #929 on: November 17, 2007, 11:42:09 PM »

Why is Biden on the same level as Dodd?  Biden is polling a minimum of 3 points higher in most states.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #930 on: November 19, 2007, 07:49:38 PM »

Not much change on the Democratic side.

Giuliani has a huge gain; except for a few freak transactions, he's close to his record high.  McCain, Paul, and stale Thompson decline. Someone noticed that Rice isn't running.


Democrats
Clinton 72.0
Obama 15.5
Edwards 5.3
Gore 4.9
Richardson 0.6
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 44.5
Romney 29.2
Huckabee 8.3
McCain 6.6
Paul 6.0
Thompson 5.4
Rice 1.0
Gingrich 0.3
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
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Ukraine


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E: -6.50, S: -6.67

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« Reply #931 on: November 19, 2007, 11:09:50 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2007, 11:13:36 PM by FREE STRAHA! »

The Paul bubble is starting to wind down. Are some fanboys finally waking up out of their delusion?

Actually what's more likely is some speculators who bought some stock when the bubble started are starting to unload it and reap the profits.
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Reignman
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E: -3.23, S: -3.65

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« Reply #932 on: November 21, 2007, 12:37:44 PM »

Maybe Huckabee's in third now because of his Chuck Norris ad.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #933 on: November 23, 2007, 04:13:37 PM »

Obama up a bit.

Romney tanks. Thompson continues his crash and burn.  Some idiots cause Rice to go up. Hunter is trading.

Democrats
Clinton 71.5
Obama 16.9
Edwards 5.4
Gore 4.6
Richardson 0.4
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 45.0
Romney 26.2
Huckabee 8.6
McCain 7.0
Paul 6.0
Thompson 5.0
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3
Hunter 0.1
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
Mr. Moderate
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« Reply #934 on: November 24, 2007, 06:06:27 PM »

Ah, the problem with owning both Huckabee and Romney: When Huckabee gains in Iowa, it comes at the expense of Romney.
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jfern
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« Reply #935 on: November 24, 2007, 06:11:05 PM »

Obama surge; he seems to be the highest in a couple of months. No real corresponding drop.

Nothing too exciting on the Republican side.

Democrats
Clinton 71.1
Obama 18.9
Edwards 5.4
Gore 4.6
Richardson 0.4
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 45.6
Romney 26.9
Huckabee 8.0
McCain 7.3
Paul 6.0
Thompson 4.9
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3
Hunter 0.1
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #936 on: November 24, 2007, 11:09:28 PM »

The Obama surge is because he is making Hillary heel in Iowa.
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Inmate Trump
GWBFan
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« Reply #937 on: November 25, 2007, 01:19:43 PM »

"Obama surge"  Roll Eyes  Hillary's still at 71.1!!
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jfern
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« Reply #938 on: November 25, 2007, 04:20:22 PM »

Clinton finally drops to make up for Obama's gains. She is the lowest for at least a few weeks, I think. Ironically Obama goes slightly down.

 Thompson's crash and burn continues, he's now not even that close to 5th place. Hunter drops off.

Democrats
Clinton 67.7
Obama 18.4
Edwards 5.4
Gore 4.7
Richardson 0.4
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 45.7
Romney 26.4
Huckabee 8.3
McCain 7.3
Paul 6.0
Thompson 4.7
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #939 on: November 25, 2007, 04:24:42 PM »

Huckabee is now leading in the Iowa caucus market:

Huckabee 46.5
Romney 45.0
field 7.2 (probably Paul fans)
Giuliani 3.2
Thompson 1.4
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #940 on: November 25, 2007, 06:28:06 PM »

Huckabee is now leading in the Iowa caucus market:

Huckabee 46.5
Romney 45.0
field 7.2 (probably Paul fans)
Giuliani 3.2
Thompson 1.4


Interesting, Huckabee looks like he's definitely in 2nd place in the polls there.

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #941 on: November 25, 2007, 06:40:49 PM »

Cleaner picture of the Iowa polls:


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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #942 on: November 26, 2007, 01:09:53 AM »

Romney is still absurdly undervalued in the market for the Florida primary.  He's at 26.5 to win the nomination, but only at 6.0 to win Florida.  What sense does that make?  He's actually doing a bit better in the Florida polls than in the national polls.  If he gets a big national boost from winning IA and NH, why wouldn't he get a corresponding boost in Florida?
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #943 on: November 26, 2007, 01:17:21 AM »

Romney is still absurdly undervalued in the market for the Florida primary.  He's at 26.5 to win the nomination, but only at 6.0 to win Florida.  What sense does that make?  He's actually doing a bit better in the Florida polls than in the national polls.  If he gets a big national boost from winning IA and NH, why wouldn't he get a corresponding boost in Florida?


I'm sure a good part of it is a low-volume market.
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BRTD
Atlas Prophet
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Ukraine


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« Reply #944 on: November 26, 2007, 01:36:28 AM »

Even by using the fallacious logic of simply drawing a trendline, Romney still wins Iowa based on that. Huckabee fans must be expecting a bigger surge.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #945 on: November 26, 2007, 01:43:55 AM »

Romney is still absurdly undervalued in the market for the Florida primary.  He's at 26.5 to win the nomination, but only at 6.0 to win Florida.  What sense does that make?  He's actually doing a bit better in the Florida polls than in the national polls.  If he gets a big national boost from winning IA and NH, why wouldn't he get a corresponding boost in Florida?


I'm sure a good part of it is a low-volume market.

True, but, at least recently, there seems to be a transaction on the "Romney to win Florida primary" contract at least once every few days.  Yet it's consistently traded in the 6.0-7.0 or so range.  The highest it's ever been was 10.0.  There may not be many people trading on it, but those who are don't seem very smart.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
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Ukraine


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E: -6.50, S: -6.67

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« Reply #946 on: November 26, 2007, 01:57:51 AM »

At that price it's a steal. If I had an account I'd sure bid on it.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #947 on: November 26, 2007, 02:53:28 PM »

A few of other points:

-Huckabee is now above 50 on winning Iowa.
-In the Democratic contest in Iowa, Obama is surging.  He was below 20 at the begining of the month, but now it's:

Clinton 48.5
Obama 42.5
Edwards 10.0

-The contracts on the candidates dropping out by Dec. 31st are now starting to look a little overvalued.  Dodd at 20% to drop out by then is probably reasonable, since he has absolutely no chance of winning, and he must realize that by now.  I wouldn't rule out him pulling a Carol Mosley Braun, and dropping out just days before Iowa, to save himself some embarrassment.  But McCain at 7.6 to drop out before Dec. 31st?  Since he's stayed in the race this long, I just can't see him dropping out until after New Hampshire.  He might as well stay in until then.  Why drop out now?
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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E: -7.38, S: -8.36

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« Reply #948 on: November 26, 2007, 02:58:40 PM »

Clinton re-gains, but Obama stays steady.

Giuliani continues to gain. Excluding some fluke transactions, he's basically a record high.  Thompson slightly recovers.

Democrats
Clinton 71.0
Obama 18.3
Edwards 5.4
Gore 4.5
Richardson 0.3
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 46.5
Romney 26.9
Huckabee 7.8
McCain 7.3
Paul 5.9
Thompson 5.1
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
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Posts: 112,705
Ukraine


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E: -6.50, S: -6.67

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« Reply #949 on: November 26, 2007, 06:18:39 PM »

What the hell has happened to give Giuliani a boost?
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