New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

More evidence that the markets for individual GOP primaries are completely f'ed up with respect to the overall nomination market....Giuliani's Intrade probability of winning each of the following early primary states:

IA 1.2
NH 6.2 (which puts him behind Huckabee!)
MI 27.5
SC 28.5
NV 60.0
FL 71.5
nomination 42.1

Obviously, those numbers are (or should be) heavily correlated.  If he wins NH, that makes him more likely to win MI.  If he wins MI, he' s more likely to win SC or NV.  But it reinforces the point I've been made in this thread before: the Intrade bettors are completely clueless about how momentum works.  They think Giuliani only has maybe a 1 in 3 chance of winning one of IA, NH, MI, or SC, but then a 71.5% chance of winning FL???  And then he has only about a 50/50 shot at the nomination after he's won FL???  It doesn't work like that.  One could be pretty much assured of making some $ by betting on Giuliani to win those pre-FL states, while betting *against* him to win FL.  One of the two bets will almost certainly pay off big time.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Huckabee is surging today, up to 16.2/16.3.  That's up nearly 20%.

[Mr. Morden]

Holy cow, the Huckabee-Romney gap in the GOP nomination market is collapsing:

Giuliani 42.5
Romney 21.5
Huckabee 16.0
McCain 7.1
Thompson 5.1
Paul 5.1

At this rate, Huckabee might well surpass Romney in no time.

And Huckabee is also on the verge of passing Romney in the winning individual market:

Clinton 44.5
Giuliani 19.0
Obama 12.5
Romney 7.7
Huckabee 7.0

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I closed out my position on Romney today, and really wish I had gone with my gut to pour more money into Huckabee yesterday when I was considering it.

[Eraserhead]

Holy cow, the Huckabee-Romney gap in the GOP nomination market is collapsing:

Giuliani 42.5
Romney 21.5
Huckabee 16.0
McCain 7.1
Thompson 5.1
Paul 5.1

At this rate, Huckabee might well surpass Romney in no time.

And Huckabee is also on the verge of passing Romney in the winning individual market:

Clinton 44.5
Giuliani 19.0
Obama 12.5
Romney 7.7
Huckabee 7.0

If Huckabee can only up his cash flow, he MIGHT have a serious shot.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Huckabee now at 17.0, another all-time-high.  That's a gain of 3.6 in a day.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Of course, it's all because of this: Rasmussen National: Giuliani 18% Huckabee 18%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Huckabee has a large gain at Romney's expense.

Democrats
Clinton 67.7
Obama 22.3
Edwards 5.6
Gore 3.8
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 42.8
Romney 21.8
Huckabee 16.4
McCain 7.3
Thompson 5.1
Paul 5.1
Rice 1.6
Gingrich 0.3

[Eraserhead]

The black man and the hillbilly are on the move.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The black man and the hillbilly are on the move.

The matchup would be interesting. I'd expect Obama to do well in states like NH, CO, and NV, and not so well in states like MO, AR, and WV.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama's on fire and Romney's crashing:

Clinton 66.7
Obama 27.0
Edwards 5.8
Gore 2.2

Giuliani 41.7
Romney 19.2
Huckabee 17.1
McCain 7.3
Thompson 5.0
Paul 4.5

That's the highest that Obama's been since around August, and the lowest that Romney's been since about the same time.

[Eraserhead]

There is a poll coming out tomorrow that politicalwire leaked showing Obama pulling away in Iowa.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama surges at Clinton and Gore's expenses.

Huckabee has a surge at Romney's expense; he's only trailing Romney by a bit. Giuliani is slightly down. McCain up. Paul down.

Democrats
Clinton 65.2
Obama 26.0
Edwards 5.7
Gore 2.2
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 41.7
Romney 19.8
Huckabee 18.3
McCain 8.0
Thompson 5.0
Paul 4.5
Rice 1.6
Gingrich 0.3

Obama:


Romney:


Huckabee:

[© tweed]

Al Gore

p.s.   buy Romney hardcore

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Al Gore

Because there was always such a strong possibility of him being the nominee. The fact that he's still above 2 even is ridiculous.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton collapsing in Iowa caucus market:

Obama 53.0
Clinton 35.5
Edwards 11.0

McCain surging into second place (though still *way* behind Romney) in NH primary market:

Romney 65.0
McCain 15.0
Giuliani 13.8
Huckabee 13.0

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Al Gore

p.s.   buy Romney hardcore

Psh, I just finished selling Romney.  (And just in time!)

I think Huckabee might be a buy at 18 still, and McCain is worth picking up as a hedge for when Romney loses Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee surpasses Romney in "winning individual":

Clinton 42.2
Giuliani 18.4
Obama 14.6
Huckabee 8.5
Romney 8.0
McCain 2.7
Paul 2.5
Edwards 2.0

[Eraserhead]

It shouldn't be long before Obama passes Giuliani.

[Aizen]

go obama (aww yeah post 1000)

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama gains some more at everyone else (except Gore's) expenses.

Giuliani and Romney recover a bit from yesterday's slide.

Democrats
Clinton 64.5
Obama 28.0
Edwards 4.9
Gore 2.5
Richardson 0.4
Biden 0.2
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 42.7
Romney 22.3
Huckabee 18.1
McCain 8.1
Thompson 5.0
Paul 4.8
Rice 1.7
Gingrich 0.3

[Speed of Sound]

go obama (aww yeah post 1000)

ummm.....chief.......youre at....776 posts.....

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Huckabee gets any higher, I need to quit my day job and do this full time instead.

[Josh/Devilman88]

go obama (aww yeah post 1000)

ummm.....chief.......youre at....776 posts.....

He was at 1000 yesterday...

[Mr. Morden]

go obama (aww yeah post 1000)

ummm.....chief.......youre at....776 posts.....

He was refering to the number of posts in the thread.