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Author Topic: New Tradesports rankings  (Read 181801 times)
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jfern
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E: -7.38, S: -8.36

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« Reply #25 on: January 05, 2007, 10:05:07 PM »

Front runners Clinton and McCain both drop
Powell and Brownback also drop. Pataki and Thompson rise.


Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 21.1
Edwards 14.8
Gore 6.9
Richardson 1.8
Kerry 1.6
Biden 1.6
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7


Republicans
McCain 48.2
Giuliani 16.6
Romney 16.3
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Brownback 2.0
Rice 1.9
Hagel 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.5
Pataki 0.5
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #26 on: January 05, 2007, 11:26:22 PM »

Good. Clinton continues to fall.
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jfern
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« Reply #27 on: January 08, 2007, 02:21:44 PM »

Clinton, Obama, Clark, Giuliani, Powell, Thompson drop
Biden, McCain, Rice, Hagel rise

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 19.5
Edwards 17.0
Gore 6.8
Biden 2.1
Kerry 1.6
Richardson 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 49.6
Romney 16.2
Giuliani 14.8
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
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jfern
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« Reply #28 on: January 10, 2007, 01:52:36 PM »

Gore, Richardson up
McCain, Pataki down

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 20.5
Edwards 17.0
Gore 8.3
Richardson 2.7
Biden 2.0
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 48.0
Romney 17.1
Giuliani 14.7
Huckabee 4.0
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
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jfern
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« Reply #29 on: January 11, 2007, 12:08:21 AM »

Lots of movement on the Democratic side

Gainers: Clinton, Gore, Biden, Dodd
Droppers: Obama, Edwards, Richardson

Democrats
Clinton 46.8
Obama 19.2
Edwards 16.2
Gore 8.9
Richardson 2.0
Biden 2.5
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7

Republicans
McCain 48.1
Romney 17.1
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.2
Gingrich 3.6
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Brownback 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #30 on: January 12, 2007, 01:28:01 PM »

Obama is now at 19.5, and Edwards has moved up to 19.0.  At this rate, Edwards will soon surpass Obama.

Of course, part of what's holding Obama back is that there's still doubt in some quarters about whether he's actually going to run.  If Obama announced today that he was running, he would probably see an immediate uptick to at least 25.0 or so.
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jfern
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« Reply #31 on: January 12, 2007, 01:30:06 PM »

Obama is now at 19.5, and Edwards has moved up to 19.0.  At this rate, Edwards will soon surpass Obama.

Of course, part of what's holding Obama back is that there's still doubt in some quarters about whether he's actually going to run.  If Obama announced today that he was running, he would probably see an immediate uptick to at least 25.0 or so.


There are some rumors that he'll announce on Martin Luther King Day (Monday), but those are just rumors.

Richardson said he'd make a decision soon, though.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #32 on: January 12, 2007, 01:40:18 PM »

Obama is now at 19.5, and Edwards has moved up to 19.0.  At this rate, Edwards will soon surpass Obama.

Of course, part of what's holding Obama back is that there's still doubt in some quarters about whether he's actually going to run.  If Obama announced today that he was running, he would probably see an immediate uptick to at least 25.0 or so.


There are some rumors that he'll announce on Martin Luther King Day (Monday), but those are just rumors.

Richardson said he'd make a decision soon, though.

MLK day? LOL...LOLOL....LOLOLOL Cheesy
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jfern
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« Reply #33 on: January 12, 2007, 06:40:57 PM »

Up: Clinton, Obama,Edwards, Huckabee
Down: Rice

Democrats
Clinton 48.7
Obama 20.0
Edwards 18.9
Gore 8.5
Richardson 2.4
Biden 2.1
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Dodd 1.2
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.6

Republicans
McCain 47.9
Romney 17.2
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.9
Gingrich 4.0
Hagel 2.7
Brownback 2.7
Rice 1.6
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #34 on: January 12, 2007, 06:52:54 PM »

He'd probably announce on Ramadan or 9/11.
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jfern
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« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2007, 01:12:01 PM »

Up: Biden, Clark, Rice
Down: Obama, Edwards, Gore,  Richardson, Dodd, McCain, Huckabee, Gingrich

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 19.2
Edwards 17.1
Gore 6.3
Biden 3.0
Richardson 1.6
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Clark 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 44.4
Romney 17.9
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.0
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Brownback 2.7
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
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jfern
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« Reply #36 on: January 16, 2007, 01:00:11 PM »

Now that Obama has formed a committee, here are the Democratic changes:

Up: Obama, Dodd
Down: Edwards, Biden, Clark

A lot of changes around 5th place for the Republicans:
Up: Gingrich, Hagel
Down: Rice, Brownback

Democrats
Clinton 47.9
Obama 20.9
Edwards 16.5
Gore 6.2
Biden 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Dodd 1.0
Warner 0.7
Clark 0.6

Republicans
McCain 44.7
Romney 17.3
Giuliani 15.5
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 4.1
Brownback 3.2
Hagel 3.1
Rice 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Powell 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Bloomberg 0.4
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #37 on: January 16, 2007, 01:23:28 PM »

I expected more of a bounce for Obama now that he's jumped in the race....but he's barely ahead of where he was a month ago, back when quite a few pundits seemed unsure of whether he'd actually get in.  I guess more people have been convinced that he'd run all along.....or else those that were unsure don't think much of his chances at the nomination anyway.
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jfern
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« Reply #38 on: January 16, 2007, 01:26:59 PM »

I expected more of a bounce for Obama now that he's jumped in the race....but he's barely ahead of where he was a month ago, back when quite a few pundits seemed unsure of whether he'd actually get in.  I guess more people have been convinced that he'd run all along.....or else those that were unsure don't think much of his chances at the nomination anyway.


I didn't capture all of the Obama bounce. He actually gained another point since I posted that, and is now at 21.9.
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #39 on: January 16, 2007, 06:21:42 PM »

Gore should have dropped off the charts after his most recent announcement that he isn't running. I like the guy, but people have to let go. Biden and Richardson should be higher then him at least.
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jfern
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« Reply #40 on: January 17, 2007, 11:30:10 PM »

Up: Obama, Gore, Clark
Down: Edwards

There's now a lot more Republican longshots than Democratic longshots.

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 23.0
Edwards 15.7
Gore 7.9
Biden 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Vilsack 1.5
Kerry 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 44.4
Romney 17.5
Giuliani 16.2
Huckabee 4.8
Gingrich 4.1
Hagel 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Rice 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Powell 0.7
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.4

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #41 on: January 18, 2007, 11:34:43 AM »

Clinton and McCain are at or near their lowest points since the election two months ago.  Obama is (I think) at an all time high (but still rated as only half as likely to win the nomination as Clinton).  Romney is near his all time high, but still well behind McCain.  Edwards is kind of close to his all time high, but has backslid a bit since Obama's announcement.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #42 on: January 18, 2007, 12:09:34 PM »

Thompson went up .2%! w00t! Tongue
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #43 on: January 18, 2007, 10:01:58 PM »

Obama has now reached a new all time high of 23.8.  His price is finally more than half that of Clinton's.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #44 on: January 19, 2007, 12:35:11 AM »

Obama has now reached a new all time high of 23.8.  His price is finally more than half that of Clinton's.


Sweet (not that it really means anything).
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jfern
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« Reply #45 on: January 20, 2007, 01:05:33 PM »

Clinton is up a bit due to her announcement.
Obama and Edwards drop, while Gore and Gravel surge.
On the Republican side, Paul surges.

Democrats
Clinton 49.2
Obama 19.5
Edwards 13.0
Gore 10.0
Biden 2.8
Richardson 2.3
Vilsack 1.5
Kerry 1.5
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 43.1
Romney 17.5
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Gingrich 4.1
Hagel 3.9
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.7
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Powell 0.7
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Thompson 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #46 on: January 20, 2007, 01:15:18 PM »

I'm really surprised that Hillary seems to have gotten a bigger bounce (and the associated drop for her rivals) out of her announcement than Obama did.  Obama is now exactly where he was about a month ago on Tradesports.  But wasn't the CW at that point that there was still some doubt as to whether Obama would run, whereas Clinton was pretty much a sure thing?  So then why hasn't Obama's decision to run given him a bigger boost?
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YRABNNRM
YoungRepub
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« Reply #47 on: January 20, 2007, 01:16:13 PM »

So then why hasn't Obama's decision to run given him a bigger boost?

Hillary still has tons of name recognition over Obama.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #48 on: January 20, 2007, 01:28:56 PM »

So then why hasn't Obama's decision to run given him a bigger boost?

Hillary still has tons of name recognition over Obama.

But that's been the case forever.  I'm simply asking why it is that Obama hasn't gained more ground since the timeframe when people were still uncertain about whether he'd actually run.  When the CW goes from, say, 75% probability that Obama will run to 100% probability that Obama will run, then there should be a corresponding boost in the probability that Obama will win the nomination (unless people are simultaneously becoming more skeptical of Obama's chances of winning, should he run).

Anyway, I had thought that, back in early-mid December, there was still some uncertainty as to whether Obama would run, whereas nearly everyone was convinced that Clinton would run.  But I guess I may have been wrong on that score.
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jfern
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« Reply #49 on: January 20, 2007, 06:29:03 PM »
« Edited: January 20, 2007, 06:44:31 PM by jfern »

Hillary's bump has vanished. Others changes, particularly an Edwards surge.

Democrats
Clinton 46.1
Obama 18.7
Edwards 15.9
Gore 9.0
Biden 2.3
Richardson 2.3
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.3
Dodd 1.0
Clark 1.0
Gravel 1.0
Warner 0.7

Republicans
McCain 42.7
Romney 17.0
Giuliani 17.0
Huckabee 6.8
Hagel 3.9
Gingrich 3.5
Brownback 3.2
Paul 2.9
Rice 2.8
Powell 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Gilmore 0.7
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.6
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