New Tradesports rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Gore drops.

Paul passes Thompson for 3rd place. Ron Paul in 3rd place, LOL.  Paul is close to a record high, while Thompson is the lowest in several months.  If Thompson's crash and burn continues, he will fall below McCain soon. Huckabee also drops.

Democrats
Clinton 71.3
Obama 12.8
Gore 6.6
Edwards 4.0
Richardson 0.8
Dodd 0.4
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 42.0
Romney 28.5
Paul 8.7
Thompson 8.4
McCain 7.1
Huckabee 4.5
Rice 1.2
Gingrich 0.2

The market has the GOP race all wrong.  Thompson is still a serious competitor, Paul is not.  Thompson belongs above 10, Paul belongs at 2.5 or lower.  Rice doesn't even deserve to be traded.  I mean, seriously.

[Eraserhead]

What are these Paul people smoking and where can I get some?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As much of a sure bet as shorting Paul would be, shorting Thompson 1-2 months ago would've been an even far bigger payoff.

[Mr. Morden]

True, but the really good bet would have been to bet on Paul back in July, then sell now.  His price has just about tripled since then.

Of course, there was no way to know back then that the Paul fanboys would be dumb enough to push that price so high.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain has surpassed Thompson for fourth place:

Giuliani 40.5
Romney 28.5
Paul 8.1
McCain 7.3
Thompson 7.0
Huckabee 5.6

Now let's see if Thompson can drop below Huckabee.

As a consolation though, Thompson has moved back up into second place in the VP market....a distant second to Huckabee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Edwards gains, no real corresponding drop.

Thompson's crash and burn continues, now ties McCain for 4th place. Huckabee surges, and isn't too far behind them. Some idiots boosted Rice.

Democrats
Clinton 71.7
Obama 13.2
Gore 6.2
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 0.7
Dodd 0.3
Biden 0.2

Republicans
Giuliani 42.4
Romney 27.9
Paul 8.7
Thompson 7.1
McCain 7.1
Huckabee 6.6
Rice 2.0
Gingrich 0.2

[Inmate Trump]

Republicans
Giuliani 42.4
Romney 27.9
Paul 8.7

[Eraserhead]

Look out Mitt. Dr. No is coming. lolz

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson has now dropped below Huckabee, all the way down to 6th place:

Giuliani 40.4
Romney 29.7
Paul 8.8
McCain 7.1
Huckabee 6.2
Thompson 6.0

[Eraserhead]

Hilarious and well deserved.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republicans
Giuliani 42.4
Romney 27.9
Paul 8.7

I thought you were supporting Giuliani (Who has basically nothing in common with Paul).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hilarious and well deserved.

It kind of pisses me off though. Every time a GOP candidate proves to be a sure loser, they collapse in the primary. Happened to McCain and is now happening to Thompson.

Well we can still hope for Romney.

[Eraserhead]

Well we can still hope for Romney.

Ha!  I'd sooner bet on Al Gore for Vice President than Romney collapsing.

He wouldn't have to collapse in the general. He already does terrible against all the major Democratic candidates just about everywhere.

[SPC]

Republicans
Giuliani 42.4
Romney 27.9
Paul 8.7

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton surges, she is almost her all time record high. Gore drops to tying Edwards.

Romney and McCain are up a bit.  Thompson's crash and burn continues; he is now in 6th place. Rice down, Gingrich up.

Democrats
Clinton 74.0
Obama 13.5
Gore 5.0
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 0.8
Dodd 0.4
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 43.0
Romney 29.2
Paul 8.7
McCain 7.9
Huckabee 6.4
Thompson 5.5
Rice 1.5
Gingrich 0.4

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thompson's fall in the primary:



Thompson's fall in the winning individual:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I almost feel sorry for the people who bid on Thompson back in March or April, thought they had hit the jackpot, and are now watching him fall back to the original values. On the other hand the people who wisely unloaded on him in July and August are laughing all the way to the bank.

[Sam Spade]

If Ron Paul gets to 10 on this thing, I may just have to actually get involved.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

If Ron Paul gets to 10 on this thing, I may just have to actually get involved.

yeah, Rudy, Romney, and Huckster are the only ones who have a chance to win the GOP

[Eraserhead]

Clinton surges as she falls in IA and NH... interesting.

[Boris]

The fact that Fred Thompson, who is polling second place nationally among Republicans according to Rasmussen, is doing worse on Tradesports than a candidate who doesn't even break out of the MoE says a lot about the value of these rankings. At least on the GOP side. The Dem rankings are pretty accurate for now, with the exception of Gore.

[Mr. Morden]

Boris-

Paul being at 8.7 is insane, but other than that, I don't think the GOP standings are necessarily that far off.  The national poll standings don't mean very much, as this is a state-by-state contest, and anyway Thompson is now basically tied with McCain for second place in the national polls:



and Romney isn't far behind, and trending upward.  Looking at the aggregate of polling, Thompson is a close 4th in Iowa and a close 5th in NH.  And his trendlines everywhere are negative, and the press is currently locked into a narrative about how badly he's doing.  He also appears to be the kind of candidate who's unwilling to do the hard work of campaigning, that might help him catch up.

He does have a good deal more $ than Huckabee and McCain, and that may save him, but I don't think it's crazy to rate him in 5th place for likelihood of winning the GOP nomination.  I don't know if I'd rate him that low myself, but I don't think it's crazy to do so.  (Now, rating him in *6th* place, behind even Paul, *is* crazy.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Ron Paul gets to 10 on this thing, I may just have to actually get involved.

You might have some difficulty thanks to fascist Bill Frist, although according to Mr. Moderate there haven't been any problems. I've been considering doing the same as well.

The only problem with shorting Paul is that for example you have to have $92 frozen just so you can make $8 next August. Although on the other hand, that's still a better rate of return than a savings account or CD, so if anyone has some spare cash laying around...

[Mr. Morden]

Thompson has fallen into a tie with Huckabee on winning individual:

Clinton 46.8
Giuliani 16.9
Romney 10.1
Obama 7.0
Gore 5.2
Paul 3.5
McCain 3.3
Huckabee 2.2
Thompson 2.2
Edwards 2.1
Bloomberg 0.6

There's also a new market on "Ron Paul to announce 2008 Presidential bid as Independent or 3rd Party candidate".  It's currently trading at 25.0, though the volume is low.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton drops back down. Gore(!) gains.

Paul, McCain, and Huckabee drop, and Thompson gains, but that doesn't stop him from tying for 5th place.  I think someone figured out that Rice isn't running, she tanks.

Democrats
Clinton 71.4
Obama 13.5
Gore 5.6
Edwards 5.2
Richardson 0.7
Dodd 0.4
Biden 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 43.4
Romney 29.2
Paul 7.9
McCain 7.3
Huckabee 6.0
Thompson 6.0
Rice 0.6
Gingrich 0.4