New Tradesports rankings

[Mr. Morden]

What the hell has happened to give Giuliani a boost?

Presumably, Huckabee's rise in Iowa.  The Intrade bettors are giving Huckabee a much much better chance of winning Iowa than they were a few weeks ago.  I'm guessing that their thinking is that Huckabee winning Iowa helps Giuliani, because it severely dampens the chances of Romney getting enough early momentum to overtake Giuliani nationally.

I don't know that I agree that that's how it would play out, but that's probably what the thinking is.

[Eraserhead]

What the hell has happened to give Giuliani a boost?

Giuliani appears to be pouncing on Romney's new Willie Hortonesque scandal.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama reaches an all-time high in the Iowa caucus market, now tied with Clinton:

Clinton 47.0
Obama 47.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 2.0 (I guess they still won't give up)
Richardson 0.4

[Verily]

Obama reaches an all-time high in the Iowa caucus market, now tied with Clinton:

Clinton 47.0
Obama 47.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 2.0 (I guess they still won't give up)
Richardson 0.4

If Obama's that high for Iowa, he should certainly be higher for the nomination. More free money on selling Obama to win Iowa while buying Obama to win the nomination. (The two do not have a perfect correlation, of course, but Obama should be at least 30 to win the nomination if he's 47 to win Iowa.)

[Mr. Morden]

Well, he just surged up to 47 within the last hour or so.  He was below 30 to win Iowa just a few days ago.  It's possible that there will now be a corresponding surge in his numbers for the nomination.  Or else the Intrade bettors don't think that a narrow Iowa victory will give Obama enough momentum to go the distance.  Or else they're just not thinking through the impact of momentum, as with the "Romney to win Florida" market.

[Eraserhead]

Some people don't fully grasp the momentum theory (which is also why Giuliani has such a huge lead over Romney in the GOP race on Intrade I would suspect). These people are still looking at national polls very seriously.

[Mr. Morden]

Obama has now taken the lead in the Iowa caucus market:

Obama 49.9
Clinton 47.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 2.0
Richardson 1.0

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama has now taken the lead in the Iowa caucus market:

Obama 49.9
Clinton 47.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 2.0
Richardson 1.0

Must be low volume. If you short them all, you come up a decent amount ahead.

[muon2]

Obama has now taken the lead in the Iowa caucus market:

Obama 49.9
Clinton 47.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 2.0
Richardson 1.0

I know the sum often exceeds 100, but this seems unusually high above 100. For those who follow tradesports more closely, is my observation accurate?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Obama has now taken the lead in the Iowa caucus market:

Obama 49.9
Clinton 47.0
Edwards 11.0
Gore 2.0
Richardson 1.0

Must be low volume. If you short them all, you come up a decent amount ahead.

The problem here is that volume is light and the gap between the ask and bid is MASSIVE.

To buy them all, you'd have to drop significantly over the 100 points;
To sell them all, you'd have to settle for a bit under 100.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton drops to the lowest I've seen her in a while. Obama correspondingly gains to a possible few month high.  More people realize that Gore isn't running. Richardson slightly up.

Huckabee is near his lifetime high. Paul drops and Thompson gains, causing them to switch places.

Democrats
Clinton 68.1
Obama 21.5
Edwards 5.3
Gore 3.8
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 46.0
Romney 26.5
Huckabee 9.6
McCain 6.9
Thompson 5.8
Paul 5.3
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Romney may have peaked.

[Erc]

Probably the first sane ordering of the candidates (of both parties) in quite a while.  Although some of the numbers are off (Huckabee is still well underpriced, for example), the cardinal ranking is, for once, spot on.

[Bacon King]

What are the current odds of a Bloomberg run? IIRC, Tradesports has a bet on that.

[Mr. Morden]

What are the current odds of a Bloomberg run? IIRC, Tradesports has a bet on that.

10%.  Apparently, no one noticed the story about him being coached on foreign policy.  Or else people don't believe it.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's who Intrade lists as the favorite in each of the early primary states:

IA: Huckabee
NH: Romney
MI: Romney
SC: Romney
NV: Giuliani
FL: Giuliani

On the Dem. side, Clinton is the favorite everywhere, except Iowa, where she's again tied with Obama.

[they don't love you like i love you]

This latest scandal is giving Giuliani a real hit. He's lost 3 points so far today.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Damnit, I knew I should have bought more than just a few dollars worth of Huckabee.
ASK: 10.2  BID: 11.8

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee is on fire in the GOP nomination market.  He's now up to 12.3.  Giuliani is dropping.

Obama is back up to 50.0 to win Iowa, ahead of Clinton.

Obama has also passed Romney in winning individual for the first time in a while.  It's now:

Clinton 47.0
Giuliani 18.6
Obama 10.2
Romney 9.1
Paul 3.5
Huckabee 3.4

Huckabee may well pass Paul for 5th place pretty soon, which I think would be the first time he would have been that high.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

People think Ron Paul has a 3.5% chance of being President.  Tee hee.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton gains at Obama's expense.

Yesterday was not a good day for Giuliani between the debate and the relevations about him. Romney also went down. Huckabee had a massive surge to an absolute lifetime high; many people think he won the debate. He has broken out of the 4-way tie for 3rd place, and clearly is in his own tier now.  Paul and Thompson switch places again.

Democrats
Clinton 69.2
Obama 20.7
Edwards 5.1
Gore 3.8
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 42.1
Romney 25.1
Huckabee 12.8
McCain 6.9
Paul5.7
Thompson 5.3
Rice 1.4
Gingrich 0.3

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Glad I sold half of my Romney yesterday immediately after the debate.

Still holding on to all 20 shares of Huckabee, and considering buying even more.  He's got some solid upside to him still.  (Told you, BRTD.)

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee is now in second place (after Romney) in the New Hampshire primary market(!).  They actually give him a better chance of winning NH than winning the nomination.  That seems highly sketchy.  I mean, I understand if you think Huckabee winning IA might give him enough momentum to win NH (I think that's farfetched, but you can make the case for it), but then shouldn't he be rated higher to win the nomination?  It seems to me that most Huckabee victory scenarios would not necessarily involve him winning NH.

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee now in 5th place (and at an all time high) in winning individual:

Clinton 45.8
Giuliani 19.0
Obama 10.2
Romney 7.0
Huckabee 4.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton goes down, with Obama and Edwards gaining.


Democrats
Clinton 67.4
Obama 21.7
Edwards 5.8
Gore 3.5
Richardson 0.5
Biden 0.3
Dodd 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 42.7
Romney 24.5
Huckabee 13.3
McCain 7.2
Thompson 5.5
Paul 5.2
Rice 1.5
Gingrich 0.3