New Tradesports rankings

[J. J.]

Brokered Dem. convention is still at 15.0.  How is there going to be a brokered convention with only two candidates?  Doesn't one of them have to win a majority of delegates?

You might need 2/3 but I'm not sure.

They did away with the 2/3rds requirement a while ago.  I forget when.

I think one of the parties still has it, possibly the Republicans.

There is another possibility, the unpledged delegates may constitute enough so that neither group of pledged delegates has enough to elect.

[Sam Spade]

Brokered Dem. convention is still at 15.0.  How is there going to be a brokered convention with only two candidates?  Doesn't one of them have to win a majority of delegates?

You might need 2/3 but I'm not sure.

They did away with the 2/3rds requirement a while ago.  I forget when.

I think one of the parties still has it, possibly the Republicans.

There is another possibility, the unpledged delegates may constitute enough so that neither group of pledged delegates has enough to elect.

You know, I really don't know the exact numbers of the delegates off the top of my head.  I'll do some math over the next few days on this stuff.

[Mr. Morden]

There is another possibility, the unpledged delegates may constitute enough so that neither group of pledged delegates has enough to elect.

Yes, the pledged delegates could be split evenly, and you could get enough unpledged delegates to refuse to vote for either of them.  But come on.  Is that really going to happen?  Isn't it pretty much a given that all the unpledged delegates would go for either Clinton or Obama, and one of them would win a majority on the first ballot?

Anyway, the share price for Dem. brokered convention has dropped to 10.3...should be closer to 0.

[J. J.]

There is another possibility, the unpledged delegates may constitute enough so that neither group of pledged delegates has enough to elect.

Yes, the pledged delegates could be split evenly, and you could get enough unpledged delegates to refuse to vote for either of them.  But come on.  Is that really going to happen?  Isn't it pretty much a given that all the unpledged delegates would go for either Clinton or Obama, and one of them would win a majority on the first ballot?

Anyway, the share price for Dem. brokered convention has dropped to 10.3...should be closer to 0.

It might not be split down the middle.  Neither side has a majority, but one has a plurality.  The super delegates could be the "brokers," in this case.

[Mr. Morden]

But does that count as a brokered convention?  Isn't a brokered convention when no one gets a majority of the votes on the first ballot?  If every delegate votes on the first ballot, and they all vote for either Clinton or Obama, then one of them has to get a majority, since there's an odd number of delegates.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Anyone else think Huckabee is undervalued? He's not likely to win, but he'll still take at least a couple Super Tuesday states most likely which might boost his momentum slightly. He should at least be running more than 0.2 higher than Giuliani. Buying a few shares of him might be a good idea since they could easily double in value.

[Mr. Morden]

He might be undervalued, but it's hard for me to quantify probabilities when you're talking about things with a less than 5% chance of happening.  But I don't think it's necessarily a given that he'll take "at least a couple Super Tuesday states".  Based on recent polls from the South, I'm wondering if he might just win AR and nothing else.

Btw, Intrade has Huckabee as the favorite in AR and nowhere else.  They've got Romney as the favorite in CO, MA, MT, ND, and UT.  They've got McCain favored everywhere else.  (WV isn't listed.)

[Mr. Morden]

Romney now in single digits for GOP nom.:

McCain 85.5
Romney 9.9
Paul 1.3
Giuliani 1.0
Huckabee 1.0

McCain closing on Clinton in winning individual, and we now have just four people rated as >1% chance of being elected president this year:

Clinton 36.1
McCain 34.8
Obama 22.6
Romney 5.0
everyone else is at 0.6 or lower.

[Mr. Morden]

McCain now leads in winning individual:

McCain 35.9
Clinton 35.5
Obama 22.8
Romney 3.9

[Mr. Morden]

McCain breaks 90 in GOP nomination market:

McCain 91.5
Romney 6.7
Paul 1.6
Giuliani 1.0
Huckabee 1.0

[Verily]

Time to buy him to win the election. He should really be at least 40 on that market.

[J. J.]

Time to buy him to win the election. He should really be at least 40 on that market.

Definitely!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Time to buy him to win the election. He should really be at least 40 on that market.

Definitely!

Way ahead of you.

[Mr. Morden]

Huge Obama surge in Dem. nomination market:

Clinton 55.0
Obama 46.0

[Middle-aged Europe]

Huge Obama surge in Dem. nomination market:

Clinton 55.0
Obama 46.0

Call it the California effect.

[J. J.]

Long term Clinton buy, but I'd suggest waiting until after Super Tuesday.

[Verily]

I'd also suggest buying Romney, lightly. He'll surge a bit to 15 or 20 or so if he wins California and/or Georgia, which seems reasonably possible.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

McCain now leads in winning individual:

McCain 35.9
Clinton 35.5
Obama 22.8
Romney 3.9

this is crazy, only way the GOP wins is if there is some sort of aggression against the US prior to the election

[Mr. Morden]

Obama passes Clinton in CA:

Obama 52.2
Clinton 49.6

Obama still surging in Dem. nomination market:

Clinton 52.5
Obama 47.4

Obama just 0.1 behind Clinton in winning individual:

McCain 35.2
Clinton 31.1
Obama 31.0
Romney 3.8
Bloomberg 0.9

[Reignman]

Go Obama!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

DEMOCRATS

Nomination
Clinton 55.0
Obama 46.0
Gore 1.0
Edwards 0.2


All 22 Super Tuesday states sorted
TN: Clinton leads 94.4-8.1
NY: Clinton leads 92-10
AR: Clinton leads 89-11
OK: Clinton leads 89-20
NJ: Clinton leads 77-31
MN: Clinton leads 63-50
NM: Clinton leads 60-40
AZ: Clinton leads 58.5-41.0
UT: Obama leads 40.1-40.0
MA: Obama leads 50-25
CA: Obama leads 52.1-40.0
MO: Obama leads 52.4-38.0
DE: Obama leads 55.0-0.5
CT: Obama leads 59.8-42.0
AL: Obama leads 70-39
CO: Obama leads 70-35
AK: Obama leads 80-35
ID: Obama leads 80-20
KS: Obama leads 80-14
ND: Obama leads 85-blank
GA: Obama leads 91-26
IL: Obama leads 98.6-14


REPUBLICANS
McCain 90.5
Romney 6.2
Paul 1.6
Guiliani 1.0
Huckabee 0.6
Rice 0.3
Gingrich 0.2
Thompson 0.1

California
McCain 61.9
Romney 40.0
Giuiiani 0.3
Field 0.1

[J. J.]

Obama is too high for CA.  Sell.

[Verily]

And Clinton is too low for Massachusetts and Delaware. Buy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama is too high for CA.  Sell.

Yes, the state numbers seem too favorable to Obama. Maybe it's Clinton supporters playing the expectations game.

[Mr. Morden]

It's just an insanely close 3-way race in winning individual:

Clinton 33.1
McCain 32.6
Obama 30.6
Romney 2.1