New Tradesports rankings

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Hillary's now below 50.0 for the first time since the midterms.

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This sorta goes in the same boat and it makes more sense than starting a new thread.  Odds to be elected President of the United States, from AmericasLine.com.

Rudy Giuliani (R) Former New York City Mayor           4/1
Hillary Clinton (D) New York Senator                         9/2
John McCain (R) Arizona Senator                               6/1
Barack Obama (D) Illinois Senator                            10/1
Mitt Romney (R) Former Massachuetts Governor      12/1
Al Gore (D) Former Vice President                             20/1
John Edwards (D) Former North Carolina Senator    20/1
Mike Huckabee (R) Former Arkansas Governor         25/1
Wesley Clark (D) Retired General                             25/1
Evan Bayh (D) Indiana Senator                                25/1
Bill Richardson (D) New Mexico Governor                  30/1
Tom Vilsack (D) Former Iowa Governor                     30/1
Sam Brownback (R) Kansas Senator                         30/1
Chuck Hagel (R) Nebraska Senator                           35/1
Chris Dodd (D) Connecticut Senator                         40/1
Tom Ridge (R) Former Pennsylvania Governor          40/1
Newt Gingrich (R) Former Speaker                            40/1
George Pataki (R) Former New York Governor          50/1
Bill Frist (R) Former Tennessee Senator                    50/1
Rick Perry (R) Texas Governor                                   50/1
Jeb Bush (R) Former Florida Governor                       50/1
Condoleezza Rice (R) Secretary of State                   50/1
George Allen (R) Former Virginia Senator                 100/1
Dick Cheney (R) Vice President                                 100/1
Michael Bloomberg (R) New York City Mayor             100/1
Colin Powell (R) Former Secretary of State               100/1
Ralph Nader (I) Consumer Advocate                        5000/1
Michael Moore (I) Filmmaker, Activist                       10000/1

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Giuliani has also surpassed McCain on the odds to go all the way and win the general election as well as the primary.  Intrade odds to go all the way and win the general election:

Clinton 28.0
Giuliani 17.5
McCain 17.0
Obama 13.5
Romney 9.0
Edwards 7.9

Divide those #s by the odds to win the nomination, and you find that each of those candidates would have a better than 50% chance in the general election (except Romney, who's at exactly 50%).  I guess this works out if you think that they would all absolutely destroy any of the non-top 3 from the other party.  Otherwise, it wouldn't make any sense.

Beware of putting much stock in lightly traded markets.  Not many people are trading that right now so it usually leads to a large difference between the bid/ask and general inaccuracy.

Richardson seemingly has inherited Vilsack's stock.  He's trading at around a 5.0 now.

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Just for fun, the numbers from 08/29/05:

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Props to the people who sold Allen and bought Obama.

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Beware of putting much stock in lightly traded markets.  Not many people are trading that right now so it usually leads to a large difference between the bid/ask and general inaccuracy.

How much money is actually invested in Tradesports on the presidential nominations?  With candidates raising 10s of $millions, wouldn't it be an effective strategy to invest $X,000 to demonstrate rising interest in your candidate?

I don't know about the second sentence, but the volume traded on the presidential nominations is thousands of times larger than that on the individual contracts to win the general election.

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Giuliani has surpassed McCain on last transaction, although his bid/ask are still lower than McCain's.

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Still a <30% shot he runs.  Let Clinton/Obama divide and Gore can conquer come autumn.

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Obama's currently at a record high of 26.0 with his bid/ask at 26.2/26.3.  Clinton down to 45.6, Gore holding at 12.9 and Edwards down in the high single digits.

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Obama hit a high of 30.0 earlier today.  His last trade was at 29.3.

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Fred Thompson's last transaction is at 8.3.  (wtf)

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Giuliani is crashing, probably due to the news about Kerik.  Thompson is up to 17.0 and basically riding an undefined slope upwards.

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So "Hillary is far, far more right wing than Edwards and Obama"?

LOL.  Uh, I'm very familiar with her Senate voting record.  It's the same as Edwards (slightly more lefty in fact than his was) and no different than Obama since he entered the Senate. 

Look it up.

Hillary is pro-war, those two are not. Plus she served on the board of directors for WAL-MART. She is no liberal.

Incorrect.  Hillary Clinton is anti-war.

She's Nixonian.

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lol @ the McCain resurgence.  Of course, I'm rooting for him.  Hard.

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Why did Thompson surge?

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This is the most bizzare week in the Republican market in memory.

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Romney has also surpassed both Gore and Thompson in the "winning individual" market, and is now at 10.6.

I find it hilarious that there are people who actually think Romney could win a general election in 2008.

I think he'd have a better chance than McCain.  Romney is very very bright and very smooth, although a complete sleaze, but they all are.  McCain is just an f'ing corpse at this point.

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Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Feelin' the heat, eh?

trust me, no Democrat is scared of Fred Thompson.

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Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

Feelin' the heat, eh?

trust me, no Democrat is scared of Fred Thompson.

i A/\/\!!!!    </Dennis Kucinich>

I have no idea what your post means, but if you're comparing Fred to Dennis, you're smoking crack!

I think he meant that the only Democrat who is (or should be) scared of Thompson is Dennis Kucinich.  However, my interpretation might be as wrong as yours.

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jfern hasn't logged in for a week+ so I'll take it upon myself to update this.  It's good to have a record of it.

McCain has crashed into single digits.  Kinda shocking to think he was at 55% eight months ago.

Democrats
Clinton 49.3
Obama 29.0
Gore 11.3
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 1.8
Clark 0.6
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 30.0
Giuliani 28.5
Romney 19.3
McCain 9.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.6
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.8
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

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Giuliani passed Thompson earlier in the day but Thompson has regained a small lead since.

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 29.7
Gore 10.7
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.2

Republicans
Thompson 31.5
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 20.6
McCain 8.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.8
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

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Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 33.3
Gore 8.5
Edwards 5.1
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 35.0 (way ahead of both his bid & offer for some reason)
Thompson 34.0
Romney 22.4
McCain 7.8
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

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McCain is down to 4.0 in the last transaction.  Really quite amazing.

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Obama is at an all-time high of 35.8 and Clinton is at her lowest (42.1) since around October '06.  personally I think the market is really overreacting.  Obama has yet to get any traction in the early states with the exception of SC.

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Obama is within .1 of Clinton at the moment (38.0 to 37.9). 


seems insane to me.  buy Clinton/sell Obama hard.

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tied at 38.0

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Obama leads Clinton on last transaction 38.4 to 38.0.