New Tradesports rankings

[Verily]

Gore should have dropped off the charts after his most recent announcement that he isn't running. I like the guy, but people have to let go. Biden and Richardson should be higher then him at least.

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Gore will collapse tonight after he fails to announce at the Oscars. (Alternatively, he could overtake Obama if he announces, but I find that highly unlikely.)

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I can't believe people are still stupid enough to bet on Gore. He made the hype about him running for President into a running gag at the Oscars!

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Let the punters throw their money away on Gore.

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Looks like the punters agree that Obama "won" Selma.

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Giuliani was undervalued for a long time, but I think he's overvalued now. There is still a lot of kick in the conservative movement within the GOP.

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If she had held on much longer, the media would have begun billing her as a foregone conclusion, and then she'd never have lost.

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Edwards below Gore? Yikes!

It's been that way for a while, since a couple of days before the Oscars.

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Gore is easing out now. No one is the clear beneficiary.

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Something interesting; VP candidates:

Warner 22.5
Obama 22.0
Richardson 20.5
Clark 12.5
Bayh 11.0
Webb 8.0
Edwards 7.0
H. Clinton 5.0
Gore 3.8
Nunn 2.5

Pawlenty 17.5
Rice 14.7
Romney 14.5
Huckabee 8.0
McCain 7.5
Giuliani 7.1
Graham 7.0
J. Bush 6.5
Gingrich 5.0
Hutchison 3.0

Some of those are really skewed; Romney, Clinton and Rice would be liabilities as VP candidates and are highly unlikely. I also can't see Bush or McCain or Gingrich or Edwards as a VP candidate.

[Verily]

McCain has made a rapid recovery to 22.5. Thompson has cooled a bit to 6.2. Gingrich and Romney are still in freefall, and Hagel is popular. Obama had reached a record high of 32.9 but then dropped back down to around 30 again. Gore is back ahead of Edwards but well below his previous scores (9.9 to 9.7).

[Verily]

Look for Thompson to fly over Romney soon.

Maybe.  But the thing holding Thompson back is that there's doubt about whether he's actually going to run.  As long as there's that uncertainty, he can only go so high.

Gore's denials haven't stopped him...

[Verily]

Thompson may surpass McCain today if this trend holds.

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Actually, Giuliani's stopped falling. It's only Romney who's declining now. There must be a leak of fundraising figures somewhere that shows Romney underperforming.

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McCain's taking a tumble now that Hotline reported him as behind Giuliani in fundraising numbers. (He was expected to beat Giuliani in fundraising.) Giuliani seems to be the beneficiary, though F. Thompson gained a bit, too. Romney has recovered.

Someone is buying Bloomberg, who is now ridiculously overvalued at 1.1.

[Verily]

McCain is out of the woods now; he's back at 19.0 while Thompson is at 18.0. I don't think he'll decline much further just from fundraising numbers.

Giuliani: 34.2
McCain: 19.0
F. Thompson: 18.0
Romney: 15.8
Gingrich: 3.4

Everyone else is below 2; Hagel dropped considerably to 1.7 this morning and is actually tied with Rice for sixth.

[Verily]

Obama's odds at the Democratic nomination have now surpassed Giuliani's odds at the Republican nod.

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Wow, is McCain going to let another person surpass him?

It happened briefly earlier in the week and will probably happen again permanently when Thompson announces.

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Thompson is now considerably ahead of McCain (and on a new record, and above 20):

Giuliani: 29.5
Thompson: 20.8
McCain: 18.2
Romney: 16.7
Gingrich: 4.0
Hagel: 2.8

The Democrats are less interesting right now:

Clinton: 47.8
Obama: 31.6
Gore: 9.0
Edwards: 7.6
Richardson: 3.5


I imagine when Thompson actually announces, with numbers this strong already, he'll shoot up to at least 30.

[Verily]

Big movement on winning individual; Obama has nearly become the favorite to win the presidency while Giuliani tanks.

Clinton: 25.9
Obama: 25.0
Giuliani: 14.8
McCain: 12.7
Gore: 7.8
Romney: 7.7
Edwards: 5.2

No one has yet traded on Thompson, presumably waiting to be certain that he's running.

[Verily]

Hillary is tanking!!!

She's down to 44.5. 

I guess the Rasmussen poll was scary to the Clinton backers. Obama's up, but Edwards is down back below Gore again.

Clinton 44.4
Obama 32.0
Gore 9.6
Edwards 9.0
Richardson 2.8
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.3
All others 0.2 or lower


Musical chairs continues for second place on the GOP side.

Giuliani 32.0
McCain 19.0
F. Thompson 18.0
Romney 16.5
Gingrich 3.2
Hagel 2.9
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.1
T. Thompson 0.9
Bloomberg 0.8
Brownback 0.6
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.4
J. Bush 0.3
All others 0.2 or lower

[Verily]

So "Hillary is far, far more right wing than Edwards and Obama"?

LOL.  Uh, I'm very familiar with her Senate voting record.  It's the same as Edwards (slightly more lefty in fact than his was) and no different than Obama since he entered the Senate. 

Look it up.

Hillary is pro-war, those two are not. Plus she served on the board of directors for WAL-MART. She is no liberal.

Incorrect.  Hillary Clinton is anti-war.

I've said this before. Listen to her soundbites again. She hasn't actively supported the war since it became massively unpopular to do so, but she hasn't made any move to oppose it, either.

[Verily]

Gore charges forward for no apparent reason. Richardson's up a lot, too.

Clinton 44.2
Obama 32.9
Gore 11.3
Edwards 8.8
Richardson 3.8
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.5

Thompson slips and McCain gains. Bloomberg is up despite his announcement (?!).

Giuliani 31.0
McCain 20.4
Romney 16.5
Thompson 15.0
Gingrich 3.0
Hagel 2.4
Huckabee 2.0
Bloomberg 1.4
Rice 1.1
Brownback 0.6

[Verily]

McCain has now jumped all the way up to 25.0, which is the highest level he's been at in something like two months.  And Gore has now jumped all the way to 11.0 in the "winning individual" category, which means that he's now rated as having a better chance of winning the presidency than winning the Dem. nomination ().

Clearly Al Gore has hidden ambitions to seek the Republican nomination.

[Verily]

And McCain has now reached 31.0, putting him ahead of Giuliani for the first time in many many months.  What is going on?  Did people suddenly discover McCain's early primary state poll numbers and realize that the national polls aren't everything?  Or were Giuliani's donations to Planned Parenthood the straw that broke the camel's back in terms of people's expectations re: Giuliani's ability to satisfy the conservative base of the party?

Or did some wealthy McCain supporter decide to buy up on McCain to make him seem a more likely nominee to the politically informed? While McCain skyrocketed, Giuliani only decliend somewhat in the same period, indicating that it was not so much a shift from Giuliani as a person or group or people jumping on the McCain bandwagon.

Now is probably a great time to make easy money by selling McCain on Intrade.