New Tradesports rankings

[SPC]

McCain's hold on the GOP nomination is only going to increase.  He's the establishment candidate.

He'll be 72 years old in 2008. The last time the president-elect was older than the president in an open race was 1908, an Bill Taft was only older than Roosevelt by a year! It's not going to happen.

[SPC]

He'd probably announce on Ramadan or 9/11.

[SPC]

I predict that Romney will pass McCain within the next three weeks, at most.

[SPC]

Back in December, when Jfern started this thread, the GOP odds were:

McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0

I doubt there were many people back then who would have guessed that in May we'd be at:

Giuliani 28.2
McCain 20.1
Fred Thompson 20.1
Romney 20.0

It just goes to show how the conventional wisdom on 2008 has taken so many bizarre twists and turns stretching all the way back to 2005.

Oh, and Romney is now leading in the NH primary market.

I predicted that Giuliani would surpass McCain, but I didn't predict anything about Fred Thompson.

[SPC]

Why is Edwards tanking so badly?  He's now down to 5.5.

Maybe because his chances of winning are slim-to-none.

[SPC]

Yes, Paul has finally beat Condi Rice.

[SPC]

Thompson gets a boost because after a couple of months of thought, he announced that he'll create a commitee to decide whether or not to run. Real decisive guy.

The commitee is all but an informal announcement of his candidacy.

[SPC]

Whoa. Paul is now at 2.1!

[SPC]

Cool. At 3.0, Paul is now officially the leading second-tier candidate.

[SPC]

Interesting that Powell is on the list, but Gilmore isn't.

Gilmore's as serious a candidate as John Cox.

[SPC]

are you guys going off bid/offer or last

the following is the current offer prices (which makes sense since that is what it will cost you to make your bet)

GOP   Nomination / President
THOMPSON(F)   28.8 / 15.9
GIULIANI   25.8 / 13.5
ROMNEY   22.4 / 10.7
MCCAIN   12.9 / 8.8


Dems:   Nom / Pres
CLINTON   49.8 / 34.6
OBAMA   30.8 / 17.9
GORE   10.7 / 7.9
EDWARDS   5.9 / 3.6

I guess once you have to put your money where your mouth is...then it is 50/50 that we are looking at President Hillary

I'm going to divide those and come up with their winning probablity should they win the nomination:

Thompson 55%
Giuliani 52%
Romney 48%
McCain 68%
Clinton 69%
Obama 58%
Gore 74%
Edwards 61%

So, Tradesports would indicate that McCain would be the Republican with the best chance in the general election, while Gore would be the Democrat with the best chance in the general election. What's odd is that every candidate exceot Romney has a better chance than not of winning the general election if they were nominated.

[SPC]

McCain has crashed into single digits.  Kinda shocking to think he was at 55% eight months ago.

Ding dong
The witch is dead!
The witch is dead!
The witch is dead!
Ding dong
The witch is really dead!...

[SPC]

It looks like Paul might pass McCain.

You do not know how happy I am.  etc. etc. etc.

[SPC]

McCain utterally tanks. Several months ago he was around 50%. Those days are over. Paul has over half of McCain.

We will, we will, rock you!
Rock you!
We will, we will, rock you!
Rock you!

[SPC]

Did Paul's fundraising go well this quater?

I heard he was supposed to raise $4-5 million.

[SPC]

Why the hell is Ron Paul so high?

Ron Paul owns the internets.

Yeah, I think that's why he'd doing so well on Intrade.

[SPC]

Selling Paul is also always a good idea. He might be able to do reasonably well in the primaries, but there's absolutely no way he can win the nomination itself.

I wouldn't sell Paul until after the Iowa Straw Poll. A good showing there (i.e. 2nd place) could boost his price.

[SPC]

I think Gore is worth a bid at that price (and to a lesser degree, Clinton) while shorting Obama and Edwards is smart.

Personally, I think Edwards is highly undervalued at 6.  If he does as well in Iowa as polls currently suggest he will, his option will spike considerably.

even if he wins Iowa (very possible), what is he going to do after that?

Hope for a win in South Carolina and then drop out when it doesn't happen.

[SPC]

Why is Rice being traded at all, let alone above a declared candidate like Huckabee?

People who sold Rice at a higher price buying to cover.

[SPC]

Holy effin hell, $10 invested in Ron Paul two months ago would be worth $410 today.

If only the gambling Nazis hadn't banned online gambling.
I also think that will go even higher when he places second in the Straw Poll.

[SPC]

McCain is now below Paul.

Ding dong the witch is dead....

[SPC]

Richardson looks like a good buy. I'm predicting that he, along with Thompson and Paul on the other side, will start to skyrocket this month.

[SPC]

I'm surprised Gore himself doesn't just invest that Nobel prize money in his stock that he will annouce a candidacy. That way, he will have more than enough money to have a serious campaign.

[SPC]

Republicans
Giuliani 42.4
Romney 27.9
Paul 8.7