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Author Topic: New Tradesports rankings  (Read 183244 times)
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« on: December 30, 2007, 05:07:23 PM »

Edwards is way undervalued in Iowa. Clinton is over-valued in NH.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2008, 06:07:34 PM »

When you have as many consultants and analysts as the Clinton campaign, you're always spinning something. To not be spinning at any moment is a waste of money.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2008, 07:36:46 PM »

Oh InTrade...
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2008, 02:16:23 AM »

A little over-rated; I'd put it at 50-50 at this point.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #4 on: February 07, 2008, 02:20:14 AM »

Obama's in high 50s and Hillary's in low 40s on intrade now.

Clinton lost the spin war. That has to be a first.
It doesn't help that she admitted to donating $5 mil the day after, blunting whatever momentum she might have had.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #5 on: February 18, 2008, 12:04:51 AM »

I'd buy myself a lot of Clinton in preparation of Tuesday.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #6 on: February 18, 2008, 12:36:15 AM »

Wisconsin is a toss-up, at best, and with the over-reactions of these people, Clinton could gain quite a bit. You might even be able to make some money when Wisconsin isn't called immediately and people start buying Clinton.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #7 on: February 18, 2008, 12:48:03 AM »

Wisconsin Democratic primaries are notorious for swinging en masse one way or another at the last minute. In '88, they swung strongly to Dukakis while in 2004 they swung strongly to Edwards. As polls consistently show Obama with only a 4-5% lead, a large swing of undecideds towards Clinton could give her the win. I just have a hard time calling a state where Obama has a 4% lead a "lean Obama" state.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #8 on: February 20, 2008, 12:32:10 AM »

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?
Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #9 on: February 20, 2008, 07:55:43 AM »

Ah, remember me saying you SHOULDN'T buy Clinton before Wisconsin?
Yep, I drastically under-estimated Obama.

I'll still give a buy for Clinton for the nomination; undervalued at this point, but I'd be prepared to sell in a hurry.
Sure, it's undervalued, but I don't see any events in the next couple weeks that are going to make people start buying her again.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2008, 07:14:10 PM »

InTrade has a new contract, for Hillary's "lifeline", that she wins ALL of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Currently trading at 18.0
Meaning she wins the popular vote or most delegates? Because if it's the latter, that should be at 0.
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