New Tradesports rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From a financial perspective, I say Romney is WAY undervalued at 20.  I don't think I'd risk a bet on Thompson or Giuliani, though.

Selling McCain at 10 seems like another pretty surefire bet.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From a financial perspective, I say Romney is WAY undervalued at 20.  I don't think I'd risk a bet on Thompson or Giuliani, though.

Selling McCain at 10 seems like another pretty surefire bet.

selling McCain at 0.1 would be a surefire bet

I am thinking of Buying some Romney  almost a 5/1 odds seems like good money and I still think he will in the top two coming out of January with either Rudy or Fred being the other one.

I am curious...has anyone here bought in on any 'stocks' at tradesports

if so what do you own and where did you buy it at?

I played around with it a bit last year.  I bought GOP to win ME when it was around 10, and stupidly never sold it, even when it got almost up to 50, and similarly bought in to Tom Kean when he was unrealistically low—and again, I never sold it.  But all it all worked out—I hedged my losing bets, mostly on Republicans, by picking up Dems to Control Senate back when it was at, like, ten.

Because I thought the odds were maybe twice that.  I completely forgot I even held the position until after the election.  Ka-ching.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Last Q2 update:

Obama goes up a bit to hit a new record high.

Romney sinks a bit. McCain utterally tanks. Several months ago he was around 50%. Those days are over. Paul has over half of McCain. The betters figured out that maybe a single black woman isn't going to be the Republican  nominee.

Democrats
Clinton 47.1
Obama 34.3
Gore 8.9
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 34.6
Thompson 34.0
Romney 20.1
McCain 5.2
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 0.8
Hagel 0.6
J. Bush 0.6
Rice 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

My favorite part is that the favorite candidate of talk-radio host Laura Ingraham, Duncan Hunter, is behind not just one or two, but five fictional candidates who never had any intention of seeking the GOP nomination!

I'll buy 20 shares of Dean Barkley to win the GOP nomination for $0.03 each, please.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I've been so focused on the more interesting GOP side that I never noticed the Democratic side: my call there is that Hillary is a huge bargain at anything under 50%, and Edwards is probably a "buy" at 5.  I'd expect him to be selling around 10.

Interesting market disparity: couldn't someone theoretically make a large chunk of change by buying Giuliani contracts on Iowa and then selling them on Tradesports?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If that were possible, but you can only trade Iowa shares on that site and only trade TS share on TradeSports.

True, but one could simply bet on one candidate on Intrade and bet against that same candidate in the IEM (or vice versa).  If there's a price disparity between the two markets, you could guarantee that you'd make $.  However, I guess there's some kind of extra transaction cost that they charge you, which makes betting in the hopes of cashing in on such minor differences between the markets less attractive?

That was my point, yes: you can buy and sell on both markets, and the commodity is essentially identical.

There is a minor transaction cost on Tradesports, but it'd be significantly less than the gigantic spread between the candidates.  It's easily made up on volume.  I may try it.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Okay, so I used my $110 left over from the 2006 election (originally $100) to make some trades.

I bought and now hold 10 of Romney to win the GOP nomination at 17.6.  I feel his odds are much stronger.

I also sold 10 of GOP to win Sununu's Senate Seat at 55.0.  LOL.

And, I sold 5 shares of "Gore to run in '08" for 18.  I'd have sold the last 4 shares sitting in the bid at 18 if I had the money.  The odds of Gore running in 2008 are abysmal.  18% is a pipe dream.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Bad polling on the way for Clinton perhaps?

I doubt there's any amount of insider trading going on at Tradesports.  It's gotta be based on Obama's strong fundraising quarter.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think we should form an 'Atlas Forum' mutual fund with the combined punditry here

I don't even know if you really need that -- anyone with an above average and unbiased knowledge of politics should do perfectly fine: there are usually two or three opportunities at all times to take advantage of people who know nothing but red state/blue state.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Really?  I think he's just keeping his options open.  He doesn't have to decide for a while yet.  I still think Bloomberg is smart enough to know that even with his $ advantage, a 3rd party candidate faces long odds at winning.  I think there's a decent chance he'll conclude that his chances of winning aren't that great, so why put himself through a national campaign?

I couldn't believe that Bloomberg seriously thought he could win the mayoral race in mid-2001 when he was still polling in the teens.  And he probably wouldn't have if not for 9/11 and the Giuliani endorsement, which certainly no one could have predicted that far out.

I don't think electability will be an issue: I think Bloomberg thinks that he probably could win this thing.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Winning indivdual

Clinton 28.3
Obama 22.0
Giuliani 20.0
Thompson 16.6
Romney 7.7
Gore 4.1
Edwards 3.7
McCain 3.7
Bloomberg 3.5

Political party winner
Democrat 56.6
Republican 38.7
Field 4.7

Congressional Democratic odds
House 82.0
Senate 81.2

Will run
Bloomberg 41.5
Gingrich 30.0
Gore 15.5

Democratic odds by state
DC 97.5
MA 95.0
NY 91.5
HI 91.0
RI 90
MD 90.0
CA 87.5
VT 86.5
CT 85.0
DE 85.0
NJ 82.6
IL 82.0
MI 80.0
NH 80.0
OR 77.5
PA 77.5
WA 75.0
MN 73.5
ME 71.0
WI 70.0
NV 60.0
NM 60.0
MO 55.0 (CRITICAL STATE)
OH 51.5
IA 49.0
FL 42.5
CO 38.0
WV 35.0
AZ 27.5
AR 24.5
KS 24.5
VA 24.5
IN 22.5
KY 22.5
LA 20.0
TN 18.0
GA 15.0
NC 15.0
SD 15.0
AK 10.0
MS 10.0
MT 10.0
ND 10.0
OK10.0
SC 10.0
TX 10.0
NE 8.0
UT 7.7
WY 7.5
AL 6.0
ID 5.0

I'd put out a strong buy on NJ-GOP, CT-GOP, AR-DEM, and WV-DEM, especially if you think Clinton and Giuliani will be the nominees.  Few are likely to pay out at full value, but they all seem undervalued.

I'd put out a weak buy on NM-GOP, NV-GOP, and CO-DEM.  VT-DEM seems like a good longshot insurance play if you think Mark Warner winds up being the Dem VP nominee.  (I'd balance it out with some of the GOP longshots though.)

Lots of opportunities to make some good money.  If only I didn't have my cash already invested in other contracts... 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think Gore is worth a bid at that price (and to a lesser degree, Clinton) while shorting Obama and Edwards is smart.

Personally, I think Edwards is highly undervalued at 6.  If he does as well in Iowa as polls currently suggest he will, his option will spike considerably.  I like the idea of buying one or two shares of Edwards as an insurance policy if you're also buying Clinton or Obama: it'd only cost you $1.20 to hedge against a sharp drop in either.

I too would be buying Clinton and shorting Obama (I think the former is headed to 100 and the latter is heading to 0 without any major noise inbetween), but I think Gore is a sucker's bet.  That's going to slowly decay to 0.

(In all fairness, I should point out that I have personally shorted Gore to enter the Presidential race at 18.  A case of putting my money where my mouth is, so to speak.)

Selling Paul is also always a good idea. He might be able to do reasonably well in the primaries, but there's absolutely no way he can win the nomination itself.

If you own shares of Paul outright, I'd definitely get rid of them right now and take whatever profit you made.  I wouldn't risk shorting him at this point, though... not much return.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I really don't understand all this Romney hype.  Inspite of the fact that he has attracted so much press, he hasn't seen much of a bump in the polls.  I don't even really understand why he is in the top tier, other than the press says he is.

he's leading in most polls out of Iowa and NH...

Exactly.  I expect him to do well and win both, which should send the Romney contract up over 30 to somewhere around 40.

I'm expecting Richardson to continue to improve his numbers in NH/Iowa, which should drive the value of his contract higher.  I've short covered my Gore to Announce contract (it was tying up a huge amount of cash for a very modest payout) and invested some in Richardson at 2.9.

And I'm trying to pick up more of Dem to win NH now that Shaheen is even more likely to run, which is inexplicably valued at a mere 40%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

And, inexplicably, Sununu to win bounced up to 61 today when some rube bought shares from me.  I wonder how high that one's gonna get before crashing back down to 0?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Holy effin hell, $10 invested in Ron Paul two months ago would be worth $410 today.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Holy effin hell, $10 invested in Ron Paul two months ago would be worth $410 today.

If only the gambling Nazis hadn't banned online gambling.
I also think that will go even higher when he places second in the Straw Poll.

I guess I was lucky enough to have my money grandfathered in. 

Not that I invested in Paul.  (And that $10 would be worth $450 now.)  I bought Romney.  Which was a pretty good investment too—at 22.5, he's only 3 points away from the lacklusterish Fred Thompson.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The share price for Huckabee dropping out of the race by the end of 2007 has just dropped all the way from 67.5 to 50.0.

50.0 is waaaay too high.  His solid showing in Ames gives him reason to stay in until the Iowa caucuses, which, last I checked, is post-2007.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also, Huckabee has to actually capitalize on his straw poll success.  If his straw poll showing doesn't help him that much with either fundraising or his standing in the polls, he could still drop out before the caucus.

I don't know about that.  It's very easy to make the logical jump from "I won Ames without strong fundraising" to "I can win the Iowa Caucuses without strong fundraising" when you really, really, really want to believe that you're a serious contender.

Huckabee is in it through the caucuses.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also, it's worth mentioning that Thompson continues his long, slow slide and Romney continues his long, slow rise today, putting them even closer to parity.

Romney is up 0.3 to 23.0; Thompson slides 1.2 to 24.8.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

probably just some overenthusiastic shorter who is 100% confident Thompson won't be nominated and shorted contracts all the way down the line to 15.  his bid is still over 20.

But indeed it is now official—my old boss is now higher rated to win the nomination than Fred Thompson is.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

FRED THOMPSON IS IN TOTAL FREEFALL

not really - one guy just thought a few hours ago it'd be a good idea to short every Thompson bid.  his bid/offer are nowhere near the last transaction price.

Indeed, the 15.0 was a fluke.  Still, there's no mistaking that Fred Thompson contracts are sharply lower by about 10% on the day if you split the ask/bid.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If you disagree with the Tradesports rankings, get a cashier's check and go make money off it already! 

Personally, I think Richardson and Warner stand out to me as the most likely VP choices, so I think they're pretty fairly valued.  Clinton would never be chosen, but there's always a sucker with money on TS.  (Without looking, I'd guess volume on that contract is pretty low.)

Edwards is a pretty big longshot.  If I was a "market maker," I'd be selling shares of Edwards right on down to around 5.  I'd probably sell shares of Obama down to around 15 or so.

Why?  Because Edwards was a retarded choice in 2004, and he got chosen anyway.  So why not Obama?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Huckabee would be a terrific candidate if not for the evolution flub.  There's no way in hell I could support a candidate like that.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If someone is conservative enough to think that evolution is a lie, then I pretty much know just about everything about him that I need to know regarding his views on social issues.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't even know why someone would want to sell a contract like that for 0.1.  You're literally risking $1,000 to make $1.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I don't even know why someone would want to sell a contract like that for 0.1.  You're literally risking $1,000 to make $1.

sort of, but if you short Jeb at 0.1 and he runs for some reason you can just bid back and cut your losses.  and he isn't going to run anyway so...

And if he doesn't run, you've just made an annual return of 0.1%.  Congratulations.  Could have made 0.5% in even the sh**tiest of savings accounts with literally no risk whatsoever.