America: 2000-2016

[Yates]

A very long update will be posted tonight.

[Yates]

The Debates

Note: One question will be focused on in each debate.

First Presidential Debate

This debate focuses on foreign policy.  The questions will focus primarily on Iran, North Korea, and general United States foreign policy.  The anchor is Jim Lehrer.

LEHRER: This question is for Senator Kyl.  Senator, in the past, you have spoken in support of United States military action.  You supported the Iraq War, initially supporting President Barnes’ attack on Iran, and you urged President Clark to attack North Korea.  Under what conditions would you, as President, bring this nation to war?

KYL: Thank you for the question, Jim.  When you look at my record that you just summarized, you can see that I’ve supported wars which seemed necessary at the time.  In 2002, I believed that Saddam Hussein was a direct threat to us.  In 2005, I believed that Iran’s nuclear program threatened us.  And, recently, I felt that Kim Jong-Il was a threat to our national interests.  I will make a promise tonight to the American people: I will never bring this nation to war unless there is a direct threat to our national interests.  If any other nation or any terrorist group threatens us, I will never hesitate to use our full military might to protect this nation.  However, I will not be careless.  I won’t use the Barnes method and attack nations on a whim.  You can expect a Kyl Administration to be firm, but cautious, when taking this nation to war.

Vice Presidential Debate

This debate, between Tim Pawlenty and Bill Richardson, is moderated by Gwen Ifil.

IFIL: This question is the same for both candidates.  Gentlemen, if the time comes when you must ascend to the Presidency, what would be the first thing you would do?

PAWLENTY: Gwen, I pray that I will never ascend to the Presidency, except for in an election. (Laughter)  In all seriousness, the first thing I will do is say a prayer.  I would pray for guidance and wisdom.  I would then gather an emergency meeting with my cabinet, my top advisors, and Congressional leaders to discuss immediate policy.  If, God forbid, the President was assassinated, or there was some terrorist activity, I would need to respond quickly and efficiently.  And generally, I would be an active President.  If I ascend to the Presidency, I would not have been elected to the post, but I will serve the American people as if they elected me.  I would be a strong President, but one who is open to compromise.

RICHARDSON: I agree with Tim; if I became President suddenly and unexpectedly, I would first of all pray to the Lord.  I would then seek to establish myself as the new leader.  Like Tim said, I would hold a cabinet meeting.  I would meet with advisors to begin establishing administration policy.  I would meet with leaders in Congress.  However, and I think most importantly, within my first few days in office, I would address the American people to help them get to know me better.  I, too, would be an active President, but I would never lose my contacts with the American people.

Second Presidential Debate

This debate is a “Town Hall” debate, in which audience members may ask questions.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: This question is for both candidates.  How similar would your Presidency be to that of President Clark?

DURBIN: Thanks for the question.  I firmly believe that President Wesley Clark has been the greatest President in the past half century, definitely the best President in the past decade.  He should be a model for every future President to abide by.  As Senate Majority Leader, I have been instrumental in getting much of President Clark’s agenda passed, and, as President, I would continue the Clark style of getting things done by building bridges across party lines.  As leader of the Senate, I have worked with people such as my opponent, Senator Kyl, to pass legislation which is important for America’s future.  As President, I will continue that tradition.

KYL: Well, let me say that it’s pretty amusing to hear Senator Durbin talk about his role in getting President Clark’s policy passed in Congress, because, as far as I can recall, he opposed most of it.  When President Clark submitted his domestic agenda for earlier this year, it was I, and the Republicans in Congress, who were the primary supporters.  I, personally, rallied those in my party to support every single piece of the President’s agenda.  Senator Durbin and his liberal friends in the House actually didn’t support most of it.  Over a hundred Democrats in the House voted against President Clark’s balanced budget proposal, for example, because they felt it would make government too small.  My record over the past two years is supporting President Clark, and truly reaching across party lines, and that is a record I will be proud to continue as President.

Third Presidential Debate

This debate, moderated by Bob Schieffer, will focus on domestic policy.

SCHIEFFER: Senator Durbin, though you haven’t been exactly clear on the issue, you seem to at least tacitly support President Clark’s proposed balanced budget amendment.  Which programs would you, as President, cut to achieve the goal of a balanced budget?

DURBIN: Well, Bob, I’ll begin by saying that I firmly support the balanced budget, and I will do whatever I can to achieve it, as you can see by my votes in Congress.  Let me be blunt: I will cut military funding.  We are spending too much money on the military, which is run by an inefficient bureaucracy headquartered in the Pentagon.  I won’t authorize a dime to be spent on military waste, money that just goes nowhere.  I will decrease the military budget by 50% in my first term in office.  I will not cut any social programs, including welfare, Medicare/Medicaid, and social security.  We need to be looking for solutions to our budget problems that don’t screw over the American people.


Rasmussen Reports
October 15th, 2008
Post-Debate Polls
Which ticket won the debates?
Kyl/Pawlenty: 65%
Durbin/Richardson: 30%
Unsure: 5%

Durbin’s blunt statement about military funding, as well as his questionable language, hurt him, but Bill Richardson’s gravitas in the Vice Presidential debate helped the ticket slightly.  In addition, Kyl’s attacks on Durbin’s record secured his victories in the debates.

Next Update
There is only one more update left until Election Night 2008.  Prepare for some last minute surprises, and then the real-time election night finale.

[Yates]

Will you be posting Senate results as well?

I will most likely mention some of these on Election Night.  The House races will be mentioned in detail, however, as the House balance is up for grabs.  Speaker Hoyer or Speaker Pence - take your pick!

[Yates]

Thank you all.

Hashemite, the tickets running in this election are:

Republican: Jon Kyl/Tim Pawlenty
Democratic: Dick Durbin/Bill Richardson
Consitution: Tom DeLay/Jim Gilchrist

An Independent ticket of Paul Wellstone/Dennis Kucinich was running, but dropped out and endorsed Durbin.

[Yates]

Who has the prohibition party nominated for president?

Artist Gene Admondson.

[Yates]

Announcement

Unfortunately, my internet is having problems (Comcast is not Comcastic!).  Therefore, the final update and Election Night 2008 must be delayed.  As of now, I am planning for the final update to take place on Tuesday, with Election Night 2008 taking place on Wednesday.  I am sorry for the inconvenience.

[Yates]

There will be an update tonight, the final true update before Election Night 2008, which will be Wednesday.

[Yates]

The Eleventh Hour

It is one week until Election Day, and the race seems tighter than ever before.  In the vast majority of polls, Senator Jon Kyl and Senator Dick Durbin are virtually tied, almost always within the margin of error of being tied.  The electoral college projections show a dead heat, with both candidates likely to obtain 250 or more electoral votes.  Tom DeLay’s campaign is seeming not to have the spoiler effect once feared by Kyl.

Four days before the election, the Kyl campaign releases a final advertisement in several of the key swing states.  The advertisement features revolving clips of President Clark and Jon Kyl speaking, featuring Kyl largely affirming the statements made by President Clark.  In a similar ad, released simultaneously, clips are shown of Dick Durbin vowing to oppose several parts of Clark’s domestic agenda, and several lines which may be interpreted as being against the President.  The ad has a very positive effect for Kyl.

Congress

It seems increasingly likely that the Republicans will win a majority in the House of Representatives.  House Minority Leader Mike Pence has created an “Agenda for the New American Century,” in line with the theme of the Kyl campaign.  The Republicans’ clear message, combined with their vocal support of President Clark, have made them the odds-on favorite to win the House.

The Senate appears likely to remain in Democratic hands.  Freshman Senator Harold Ford has become the new face of the Democratic Party.  He has campaigned across the country for Democratic Senate candidates, and is one of the reasons they have been able to maintain the lead in polls for the Senate.

Predictions

Kyl Victory
Rasmussen Reports
Cook Political Report
Fred Barnes
Bob Novak
Electoralvote.com
Politics1.com

Durbin Victory
Stu Rothenberg
Larry Sabato

Final Nationwide Poll

Rasmussen Reports
November 3rd, 2008
Popular Vote
Kyl: 48%
Durbin: 46%
DeLay: 1%
Undecided: 5%

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Tomorrow Night
Tomorrow’s update will be an election preview.  I will provide polls from all fifty states, as well as hints as to which states will be important on election night.

Wednesday Night

Election Night 2008

Prepare for real time coverage of Election Night 2008, lasting from 7 P.M. – 1 A.M., at which time you will know who will be the 46th President of the United States.  It will be a nailbiter. . .

[Yates]

Election Night Preview

Strong Kyl: 181
Total Kyl: 197
Tossup: 116
Total Durbin: 225
Strong Durbin: 168

States to watch:
Ohio
Will Durbin appeal to those upset with Ohio Republicans?

Florida
The perennial swing state - whoever wins Florida will likely win the election.

Pennsylvania
If Kyl wins this state, he is likely to win the entire election.

West Virginia
Durbin may be too partisan for this traditionally Democratic state.

Colorado
A Democratic victory here could be a definite sign that the West is turning Democratic.

Missouri
If Durbin wins Missouri, he will win the entire Midwest.

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TOMORROW :: ELECTION NIGHT 2008

Who will be our next President?

From 7 P.M. to 1 A.M., live returns will be coming in.

Prepare for a nailbiter, folks. . .

[Yates]

Final predictions, anyone?

[Yates]

MSNBC Live Coverage
Election Night 2008

Good evening and welcome to what will definitely be an exciting night!  Throughout the night, we will be bringing you up-to-the-minute, live results.  Before the excitement begins, we’re going to bring in our panel to discuss what is likely to happen tonight.  Please welcome former Congressman Steve Largent, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, and columnist Maureen Dowd.

HOST: Congressman Largent, let’s start with you.  What are you expecting to see tonight?

LARGENT: I’m anticipating a solid victory for Jon Kyl.  I think he will get over 52% of the vote.  DeLay will be under 1%, and won’t affect Kyl much.  I think we Republicans are going to take the House and maybe the Senate.  It’s going to be a great night for the Grand Old Party.

HOST: Maureen, it’s looking likely that the Republicans are going to take the House.  Would you agree with that?

DOWD: Sadly, yes.  Mike Pence is great with “the message.”  He put out a very convincing agenda, supported Clark on key policy points, and shifted public opinion towards the Republican Party.  The Senate is going to stay Democratic, largely due to the efforts of Senator Harold Ford.  I’d love to see a Pence vs. Ford race for President one day.

HOST: Secretary Lew, one of the things Durbin was attacked on what his seeming lack of support for President Clark.  Being in the administration, what is your point of view?

LEW: Look, there has been no one as supportive of our administration as Dick Durbin.  Behind the scenes, he’s been working hard to get the Democratic agenda passed.  He’s done a great job of whipping votes.  However, in public, he was singing a different tune, and I can see how some people would think that he opposed lots of the Clark agenda.  He did the right things, but he didn’t concentrate enough on public opinion.

HOST: Alright, all three of you, what is the state that will determine victory for either candidate?

LARGENT: Minnesota.  If Kyl wins Minnesota, which he may because Tim Pawlenty is on the ticket, he will win the election.

DOWD: Colorado.  If Dick Durbin wins Colorado, he wins the election.  It’s as simple as that.

LEW: I’m a policymaker, not a politician.  I have no idea. (Laughter)

HOST: With that, we’ll say goodbye to our panel for a while.  We may bring them back later.  Stay tuned – in a few minutes, we’ll go over our electoral map.

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
Welcome back.  It’s time to bring out our electoral map.

As the night progresses, this map will be filled with red and blue, red for Senator Kyl and blue for Senator Durbin. 

Every hour, and in some half hours, we’ll be able to make calls when polls in a certain state close.  However, many, many states will be too close to call at first.  Those are the ones that will keep us up late into the night.

We’ll also be keeping a tally below of the amount of electoral votes each candidate has.  Remember, 270 are needed to win.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 0
Durbin: 0

7:00 – The first results of Election 2008 will come in!

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
Welcome to MSNBC’s live coverage of Election Night 2008.  It’s time to call our very first states.  At this time, we can call the following states.

PRESIDENT
Indiana

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Kentucky

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Georgia

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
South Carolina

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Vermont

[X] Dick Durbin

This updates our electoral map like so:

Jon Kyl now has 42 electoral votes, and Dick Durbin has 3.  This will tighten up.  None of these calls were unexpected.  At this time, however, we can add three states to our “Too Close to Call” category: Florida, Virginia, and New Hampshire.  We’ll keep you updated as the night goes on.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 42
Durbin: 3

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
At this time, we can now call the state of Virginia.

PRESIDENT
Virginia

[X] Jon Kyl

This was not very unexpected, though the speed at which it was called is good news for the Kyl campaign, and it brings up Senator Kyl’s electoral vote total to 55.

Florida and New Hampshire remain too close to call.  At 7:30, polls will close in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Ohio.  Stay tuned.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 55
Durbin: 3

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
Polls have now closed in North Carolina, West Virginia, and Ohio.  We can tell you now that West Virginia and Ohio have joined Florida and New Hampshire in the “Too Close to Call” category, but we can call North Carolina.

PRESIDENT
North Carolina

[X] Jon Kyl

This brings Senator Kyl’s total to 70, and it makes our electoral map look like this.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 70
Durbin: 3

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
It’s 8’o’clock and we have several states to call at this time.

PRESIDENT
Alabama

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Kansas

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Mississippi

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Oklahoma

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Tennessee

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Texas

[X] Jon Kyl

We also have a round of states to call for Senator Durbin.

PRESIDENT
Connecticut

[X] Dick Durbin

PRESIDENT
Delaware

[X] Dick Durbin

PRESIDENT
District of Columbia

[X] Dick Durbin

PRESIDENT
Illinois

[X] Dick Durbin

PRESIDENT
Maine

[X] Dick Durbin

PRESIDENT
Maryland

[X] Dick Durbin

PRESIDENT
Massachusetts

[X] Dick Durbin

PRESIDENT
New Jersey

[X] Dick Durbin

We can also add Michigan, Missouri, and Pennsylvania to our “Too Close to Call” category.

Our electoral map now looks massively different.

None of the states called so far were major surprises, but we have a group of states in that are too close to call at this time that could change everything.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 143
Durbin: 78

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
We can now make a call in the state of Michigan.

PRESIDENT
Michigan

[X] Dick Durbin

Durbin, being from the Midwest, was expected to carry the state, and he did.  This is good news for the Durbin camp.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 143
Durbin: 95

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
We are now able to project that Senator Jon Kyl has won the state of Arkansas.

PRESIDENT
Arkansas

[X] Jon Kyl

This is not a surprise, and barely affects our electoral tally.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 149
Durbin: 95

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
It’s time to call another large group of states.

PRESIDENT
Arizona

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Louisiana

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Nebraska

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
South Dakota

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Wyoming

[X] Jon Kyl

And, for Senator Durbin:

PRESIDENT
New York

[X] Dick Durbin

PRESIDENT
Rhode Island

[X] Dick Durbin

Let’s see how these projections affect our map:

We should note that many states were added to our “Too Close to Call” list – Colorado, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin.  As soon as we are able to project winners in these states, we will let you know.

It’s interesting to note that Tom DeLay is capturing a larger percentage of the vote than expected.  He has captured about 3% of the current recorded votes, with Kyl and Durbin each getting about 48%.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 179
Durbin: 130

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
We are now prepared to call the state of New Mexico.

PRESIDENT
New Mexico

[X] Dick Durbin

Even though Jon Kyl’s home state is right next door, Bill Richardson’s presence on the Democratic ticket carried the state fairly easily for Durbin.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 179
Durbin: 135

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
We can now call three states for Senator Kyl.

PRESIDENT
Idaho

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
North Dakota

[X] Jon Kyl

PRESIDENT
Utah

[X] Jon Kyl

None of these were unexpected, but we now have a few new too close to calls – Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Oregon.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 191
Durbin: 135

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
We now have a major projection to make.  Senator Jon Kyl has won the state of Ohio.

PRESIDENT
Ohio

[X] Jon Kyl

This is a major victory – one of the FL-PA-OH trifecta that wins elections.  It also puts Jon Kyl over 200 electoral votes, only 51 away from the White House.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 211
Durbin: 135

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
We have a second major projection to make.  Senator Jon Kyl has won the state of Florida.

PRESIDENT
Florida

[X] Jon Kyl

In the last election, Florida was the state which gave then-Governor Barnes a victory.  This is certainly fantastic news for the Kyl campaign, and disastrous news for the Durbin campaign.  Durbin’s team must have thought, with Bill Richardson’s Latino-ism, he would appeal in Florida.  Obviously, it didn’t work very well.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 238
Durbin: 135

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
We can now project a winner in the state of Montana.

PRESIDENT
Montana

[X] Jon Kyl

Durbin should be proud that he kept it too close to call for nearly half-an-hour.  It’s a sign of the Democrats’ growing strength in the West.  We’ll be looking at Nevada and Colorado to measure the same thing.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 241
Durbin: 135

Election Night 2008

[Yates]

Election Night 2008
We can now safely project that Senator Dick Durbin has won the state of Wisconsin.

PRESIDENT
Wisconsin

[X] Dick Durbin

Wisconsin neighbors Durbin’s home state of Illinois, so this is not very unexpected.  Still, after a round of major victories for Jon Kyl, this is at least one bit of good news for the Durbin campaign.

Electoral Vote Tally
Kyl: 241
Durbin: 145

Election Night 2008