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Yates
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« Reply #200 on: January 10, 2007, 05:09:28 PM »

Thank you, Colin.

The next update will be tonight.
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jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
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« Reply #201 on: January 10, 2007, 06:43:45 PM »

Wow, excellent work, Yates.  This is perhaps the best political timeline I've seen.
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Yates
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« Reply #202 on: January 10, 2007, 08:44:00 PM »

Early 2008 Campaign Season

On February 10th, 2007, Senate Majority Leader Dick Durbin declares his candidacy for President.  In his announcement speech, Durbin makes numerous references to his leadership of Senate Democrats, as well as his support of the Clark Administration.  Durbin is very popular among the party's left wing.

Two days after his Democratic counterpart, Senate Minority Leader Jon Kyl announces that he, too, will throw his hat into the ring.  To the surprise of many, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty stands beside Kyl during the speech, and, later that day, confirms that he will not be running for President, and supports Kyl for the nomination.

Rasmussen Reports
Democratic Primary
February 18th, 2007
Clinton: 33%
Durbin: 28%
Wellstone: 21%
Pelosi: 7%
Undecided: 11%

Rasmussen Reports
Republican Primary
February 18th, 2007
Cheney: 41%
Kyl: 38%
DeLay: 7%
Undecided: 14%

On February 25th, 2007, former President George W. Bush tells reporters that he will not run for President in 2008, nor will he seek political office again.  He also refuses to make an endorsement, saying he will endorse the eventual nominee after the convention. 

Perhaps because of Bush's announcement, former Vice President Tom Ridge begins his own Presidential campaign on March 2nd, 2007.  Ridge, in his announcement speech, cites the need for moderate, steady leadership.

On March 5th, 2007, Secretary of State Bill Richardson enters the Presidential race, telling media that a void has been created due to the fact that neither President Clark nor Vice President Holbrooke are candidates in the primary.  Richardson declares that his Presidency could be seen as a, "continuation of the Clark style of leadership."

On March 12th, 2007, former Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney has a massive heart attack, nearly killing him.  As he is recovering, Lynne Cheney announces that she will not run for President.  Cheney's announcement sends waves throughout the political community; she was considered to be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

Rasmussen Reports
Democratic Primary
March 15th, 2007
Durbin: 21%
Clinton: 19%
Richardson: 18%
Wellstone: 15%
Pelosi: 8%
Undecided: 19%

Rasmussen Reports
Republican Primary
March 15th, 2007
Ridge: 38%
Kyl: 37%
DeLay: 9%
Undecided: 16%

By April 30th, Senators Evan Bayh, Mike Ciresi, Bill Bradley, Barack Obama, Ken Salazar, Trent Lott, John Thune, and John McCain have all confirmed that they will not be running for President.  In addition, Governor Janet Napolitano has announced that she will not run.  Also having taken themselves out of consideration are Congressmen Mike Pence and Tom Tancredo.

On May 7th, 2007, former Congressman Christopher Cox declares his intentions to run for President.  Cox, however, is not thought to be a major factor in the primary.

Des Moines Register
Democratic Caucus
May 15th, 2007
Durbin: 35%
Wellstone: 26%
Richardson: 15%
Clinton: 11%
Pelosi: 6%
Undecided: 7%

Des Moines Register
Republican Caucus
May 15th, 2007
Kyl: 42%
Ridge: 36%
DeLay: 8%
Cox: 7%
Undecided: 7%

The race is on.

-----------------------------------
Coming Next:
And, they're off!  The candidates have declared, but there is one more who will enter the race with a bang near the year's end.  The campaign is underway, with speeches, ads, and debates.  Also, how are things going in the White House?

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Soaring Eagle
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« Reply #203 on: January 10, 2007, 10:18:00 PM »

I wish Clinton's numbers were that low in reality.
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Gabu
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« Reply #204 on: January 10, 2007, 10:22:39 PM »

I wish Clinton's numbers were that low in reality.

Well, this is later than right now, so hold out hope... Wink
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #205 on: January 10, 2007, 11:58:22 PM »

Must...have...more...Yates.....
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Yates
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« Reply #206 on: January 11, 2007, 06:13:10 PM »

The next update will be tonight.
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Yates
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« Reply #207 on: January 11, 2007, 10:20:58 PM »

The Road to the White House

On May 25th, 2007, Hillary Clinton ends her exploratory stage, and begins her official campaign.  She runs under the slogan, "America Calls Another Clinton," and consistently mentions her late husband in speeches, advertisements, and campaign literature.  Mostly because of Bill Clinton's recent death, this message resonates with voters.

On May 30th, 2007, the first debate for the Democratic Primary candidates takes place in Kansas City, Missouri.  Paul Wellstone is generally agreed to be the most visible candidate in the debate, due to his message that World War III was caused by having too pugnacious a President, and that he (Wellstone) would achieve America's goals using peaceful measures.  Another notable moment was Nancy Pelosi's assertion that, "Hillary's constant use of her husband is a disgusting example of using a death for political gain."  Clinton responded to the statement by referring to Pelosi as "a woman with no decency."  Snap polls after the debate actually showed Durbin and Richardson as the believed winners of the debate, with Wellstone a solid third, and Clinton and Pelosi far behind.

Two days later, the first Republican Primary debate takes place.  The debate is less fiery than the Democratic debate.  Ridge and Kyl mostly discuss policy propositions, with Cox criticizing both major candidates.  DeLay proclaims himself as the only "true conservative" in the race, and, after Ridge proposes that the United States should decrease the size of its active military, DeLay refers to him as a "spineless coward."  Jon Kyl is widely seen as the winner of this debate, with Christopher Cox a distant second. 

The White House

On June 17th, 2007, President Clark announces that he is proposing to Congress a revised budget for the 2008 fiscal year which will cut federal spending by nearly 20%.  Standing beside Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, Clark says, "We are cutting spending this year, and I urge all future Presidents to cut spending in their budgets for every year in this decade, so we can finally stop adding to this huge debt."  Clark's announcement is widely praised by both Republicans and Democrats.  Aside from this announcement, the Washington area has been fairly quiet recently.

Rasmussen Reports
June 25th, 2007
Clark Approval Rating
Approve: 76%
Disapprove: 22%
Unsure: 2%

2008 Campaign

Des Moines Register
July 30th, 2007
Democratic Caucus
Durbin: 34%
Wellstone: 30%
Richardson: 15%
Clinton: 9%
Pelosi: 7%
Unsure: 5%

Des Moines Register
July 30th, 2007
Republican Caucus
Kyl: 49%
Ridge: 36%
Cox: 8%
DeLay: 3%
Unsure: 4%

On August 21st, however, the Democratic primary field changes dramatically.  Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry, who had previously been thought to have ruled out a run in 2008, announces that he will run for President.  In his announcement speech, Henry says, "In this primary, only the far-left wing of my party is being represented.  I'm here to represent the majority of my party, and majority rules, so we're going to win."

Henry immediately begins to saturate Iowa with ads (using vast amount of early fundraising money).  His campaign manager announces that Henry will focus solely on Iowa until the caucuses are over, with the intent to use a victory in Iowa to give him momentum in New Hampshire, a state where he has little natural appeal.  In his speeches, Henry often touts the fact that he is the only sitting Governor in the Democratic primary, and that executive experience is necessary to be President.  Richardson contradicts him by citing the fact that, merely two years ago, he, too, was a Governor.

President Clark is remaining officially neutral in the primary, though Vice President Holbrooke and Treasury Secretary Lew are both actively campaigning for Richardson.  The Richardson campaign has, after Henry's entry into the race, largely abandoned Iowa, focusing almost exclusively on the New Hampshire Primary.  (Note: The Nevada Primary was not moved before New Hampshire in this scenario.)

In October, the race in Iowa is a dead heat for the Democrats, but Jon Kyl seems to have a solid lead for the Republicans.

Rasmussen Reports
October 20th, 2007
Iowa Democratic Caucus
Henry: 32%
Durbin: 29%
Wellstone: 21%
Richardson: 7%
Clinton: 5%
Pelosi: 3%
Undecided: 3%

Rasmussen Reports
October 20th, 2007
Iowa Republican Caucus
Kyl: 51%
Ridge: 34%
Cox: 10%
DeLay: 2%
Undecided: 3%

In merely three months, the votes will count.  Who will come out on top?

--------------------------------
Coming Next:
It is finally here - the Iowa Caucus.  Who will come out victorious, and who will be soundly defeated?  And, within the next few updates, this election will grow from just a two-party race.


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Yates
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« Reply #208 on: January 11, 2007, 10:28:46 PM »

The Democratic Field



The Republican Field

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Reaganfan
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« Reply #209 on: January 11, 2007, 11:45:34 PM »

I'm rootin' for Ridge.
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George W. Hobbes
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« Reply #210 on: January 12, 2007, 04:22:48 AM »

Go Cox!
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #211 on: January 12, 2007, 11:22:07 AM »

As always, awsome job Yates! I can't wait for the next update.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #212 on: January 12, 2007, 06:42:44 PM »


The Fightin' 48th!
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Yates
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« Reply #213 on: January 12, 2007, 08:13:26 PM »

The next update will be posted by midnight, most likely.
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Yates
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« Reply #214 on: January 13, 2007, 06:57:14 PM »

I am sorry for not posting the update yesterday.  It will be posted this evening.
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Yates
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« Reply #215 on: January 13, 2007, 09:13:34 PM »

IOWA
January 14th, 2008

It's the day of the Iowa Caucuses, and each candidate is making their final campaign stops in the states.  After essentially conceding Iowa several weeks ago, Bill Richardson has been getting an early start in New Hampshire.  Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi have both failed to appeal to voters in Iowa, and have also begun to campaign in New Hampshire.  Paul Wellstone seems to be stuck in a solid third place.  The race for the Democratic Caucus is between Brad Henry and Dick Durbin, who have traded the lead in polling for months.

On the Republican side, Jon Kyl has been building a stronger lead in Iowa with each poll.  The true race is for second place.  Tom Ridge has, like Bill Richardson, basically given up hope of a victory in Iowa.  Christopher Cox, however, has been campaigning vigorously in the state for a chance to be perceived as a major candidate for the nomination.  Tom DeLay has been campaigning nationwide as opposed to only in Iowa or New Hampshire, which leads some to believe that he may be gearing up for an Independent or third party candidacy.

8:07

With 13% of precincts reporting. . .

Democrats
Durbin: 36.71%
Henry: 34.32%
Wellstone: 14.96%
Richardson: 6.51%
Clinton: 5.04%
Pelosi: 1.92%
Other: .54%
Paul Wellstone is projected to be in third place.
Bill Richardson is projected to be in fourth place.
Hillary Clinton is projected to be in fifth place.
Nancy Pelosi is projected to be in last place.


Republicans
Kyl: 51.37%
Cox: 24.59%
Ridge: 22.72%
DeLay: .70%
Other: .62%
[/i]Jon Kyl is projected to be the winner.
Tom DeLay is projected to be in last place.[/i]


9:14

With 34% of precincts reporting. . .

Democrats
Henry: 36.31%
Durbin: 36.07%

Republicans
Jon Kyl
Cox: 25.67%
Ridge: 21.84%

9:59

With 57% of precincts reporting. . .

Democrats
Durbin: 36.29%
Henry: 36.18%

Republicans
Jon Kyl
Cox: 26.73%
Ridge: 19.27%
Christopher Cox is projected to be in second place.
Tom Ridge is projected to be in third place.


10:34

With 83% of precincts reporting. . .

Democrats
Henry: 37.92%
Durbin: 35.34%
Brad Henry is projected to be the winner.
Dick Durbin is projected to be in secnd place.


Iowa Results

Democrats
[X] Brad Henry
Dick Durbin
Paul Wellstone
Bill Richardson
Hillary Clinton
Nancy Pelosi

Republicans
[X] Jon Kyl
Christopher Cox
Tom Ridge
Tom DeLay

----------------------------
Coming Next:
The next update will be in television show form, and will discuss Iowa results as well as provide updates on candidates who have dropped out of the race - one candidate will drop out of the race altogether, but two candidates will drop out of the primary races only.  Coming next!
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Yates
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« Reply #216 on: January 14, 2007, 05:57:03 PM »

The next update will be tonight.
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Yates
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« Reply #217 on: January 16, 2007, 07:05:24 PM »

I realize that the last two updates have been posted late.  However, I am slightly suprised by the lack of response.  Do you all still wish me to update?  If so, I would be happy to do so.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #218 on: January 16, 2007, 07:07:06 PM »

Yes we want you to update. We've just been waiting for the updates to come.
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YRABNNRM
YoungRepub
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« Reply #219 on: January 16, 2007, 07:18:19 PM »

I realize that the last two updates have been posted late.  However, I am slightly suprised by the lack of response.  Do you all still wish me to update?  If so, I would be happy to do so.

Definitely!
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Gabu
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« Reply #220 on: January 16, 2007, 07:35:43 PM »

I think we're all just sitting here in awe with nothing to say but "Please, Sir, I want some more".
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CPT MikeyMike
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« Reply #221 on: January 16, 2007, 07:40:27 PM »

Is the Pope Catholic? Smiley
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Soaring Eagle
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« Reply #222 on: January 16, 2007, 10:20:14 PM »

Yes we want you to update. We've just been waiting for the updates to come.

Ditto.
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Yates
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« Reply #223 on: January 16, 2007, 10:27:00 PM »

Alright.  Thank you all.  I apologize for the delay.  The next update will be tomorrow!
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Yates
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« Reply #224 on: January 17, 2007, 10:07:17 PM »

HARDBALL
With Chris Matthews

Matthews: Good evening and thanks for joining us.  Tonight, we're going to discuss the results in Iowa and what they mean for both parties' primaries.  Joining me are our two guests for tonight: former Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe and former Republican Party Chairman Ed Gillespie.

Chairman Gillespie, we'll start with you.  How surprising is it that Tom Ridge came in third, after Christopher Cox, and what will it mean for your party's primary?

Gillespie: Well, it's very surprising at first glance, but when you look more closely, it's not surprising at all.  Ridge has been running a lackluster campaign and Cox has been running a truly great campaign, getting his name out there to voters.  Cox earned that victory.  As for what it will mean, Ridge must come in second place or, even better for him, win the New Hampshire Primary if he wants to stay in the race.  At the start of the primary season, he was one of the two frontrunners, with Jon Kyl.  Then, he sort've became the second fiddle to Kyl, but now he's at risk of losing that.  If Cox comes in front of him in New Hampshire, Cox has taken the place of the main challenger, and Ridge is out.

Matthews: With Jon Kyl's victory, is it safe to say that he is the frontrunner?

Gillespie: Absolutely.  Kyl is a solid frontrunner.  The only way he can be stopped is if Christopher Cox just blows Ridge out of the water in New Hampshire and, somehow, gets enough momentum to play even with Kyl.  But, right now, I'd say there is a 75% chance that Kyl will be the Republican nominee.

Matthews: Now to you, Chairman McAuliffe.  Brad Henry came out ahead of Dick Durbin in Iowa.  What will this mean for the race for the nomination?

McAuliffe: Well, this is devastating for the Durbin campaign.  Durbin is from Illinois, a neighboring state to Iowa, and should have won.  He's at risk of losing his status as the frontrunner.  He needs to come back strong in New Hampshire if he wants to remain the favorite.  Henry won because his late entry into the race got the media attention focused on him.  Right now, he has the momentum, and he's going to be hard to stop.

Matthews: Now, two candidates exited the Democratic race last night - Paul Wellstone and Nancy Pelosi.  Comment on that, if you will.

McAuliffe: Pelosi was overshadowed by Clinton throughout the campaign.  If she ran in 2004, she would have had much more success, but two powerful women going at each other in one primary is too much for voters.  Wellstone's exit from the race surprised me, and it looks like he's gearing up for a third party run.

Matthews: Speaking of that, let's roll a clip from Wellstone's concession speech last night.

"The fight for the Democratic nomination is over.  But the fight for peace and freedom, for equality and for tolerance, for liberty and hope, is still here.  I plan to continue fighting that fight and win the White House."

Matthews: To me, it sounds like he's planning to go third party, maybe to the Peace and Freedom Party or to the Greens.

McAuliffe: Yes, it does sound like that.  If he does, it would hurt the nominee, but it would hurt a nominee Henry or Richardson more than it would hurt a nominee Durbin, simply because Durbin already appeals to the far left crowd.

Matthews: Now, Chairman Gillespie, a candidate for the Republican nomination started a third party campaign yesterday.  Tom DeLay is now seeking the nomination of the Constitution Party.  Will he get it?

Gillespie: Well, I'm no expert on Constitution Party politics, but yes, I think he will, and he will hurt the Republcian candidate in the general election, no matter who it is.  After decades of service to our party, I am shocked that Tom would betray us like this.

Matthews: Alright, predictions for the general election race, both of you.  Terry, you first.

McAuliffe: Henry vs. Kyl vs. Wellstone vs. DeLay, and Henry will win.

Matthews: Ed, your turn.

Gillespie: Same candidates, but Kyl will win.

Matthews: We should have you both bet money on that.  Anyway, thank you both for being our guests tonight, and for all of you at home, thank you for watching.


-------------------------
Coming Next:
New Hampshire Primary - with the general election candidate field growing, who will be the nominees of the two major parties?  The winners of New Hampshire will be on their ways to the nomination.   
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