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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  America: 2000-2016
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Yates
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« Reply #400 on: January 01, 2011, 11:01:32 PM »

“It’s America, stupid!”



On January 10, 2011, Martin O’Malley becomes the first sitting governor to declare his candidacy for President in the 2012 election.  Governor O’Malley is the chairman of the Democratic Governors’ Association, a role usually regarded as a stepping stone to a Presidential bid.  In addition to being among the relatively few Democrats to survive the 2010 midterm elections, he traveled across the nation campaigning for Democratic candidates and made several allies.

His announcement speech focuses on his record as Governor of Maryland and previously as Mayor of Baltimore.  He portrays himself as a pragmatist, making specific reference to how he signed the largest tax increase in Maryland history as Governor.  “I’m not a politician who bases my course of action on poll numbers,” declares O’Malley.  “I’m a servant who based my course of action on what can most help the people I represent.”  His most memorable line comes near the end of his speech.  Referring to the current focus of American politics on foreign affairs, he says, “You will hear an awful lot from my opponents about my lack of foreign policy experience.  While I will stand to refute that, I believe that the most important experience for President of the United States comes from the roles I have held.  I’ve been a mayor who has fought crime and made a major city better to live in for families.  I’m a governor who has made the tough choices to allow government to better serve its people.  Whenever I hear a candidate focus only on foreign policy, I will reword an old line of a man I deeply admire and remind them of what the focus of this campaign should be: ‘It’s America, stupid!’  I will make this campaign about the hardworking Americans who increasingly feel ignored by their leaders.”

Reaction to the speech is mixed.  James Carville is the first of many to criticize O’Malley’s apparent pride in having raised taxes in Maryland.  “I’d recommend that the good governor ask President Mondale about using tax increases as a platform point.  Oh, wait a moment…”  Bob Schrum questions O’Malley’s tendency to admit his own weaknesses.  “Maybe it comes off as charming and frank, but I would never tell a candidate to give voters a laundry list of weaknesses they’ll be attacked on.”  However, both and others agree that O’Malley’s domestic focus will play well in Peoria and could help him in the early caucuses and primaries.  Yet, his insistence upon making the election primarily about domestic issues backfires sooner than anyone would expect.

---------------------------------

Ghost of Cold War Past

 
Vladimir Putin

Shedding any illusion that President Medvedev is Russia’s true head of state, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announces on January 11, 2011 that Russia would be withdrawing from final talks regarding the Nuclear Arms Reduction Treaty (NART).  Despite President Kyl’s non-interventionist attitude regarding Russia’s treatment of Chechnya, Putin insists that his nation must maintain an extensive nuclear arsenal to remain a military superpower.  In the same speech, he reveals that the Russian Military will undergo a three-year modernization with the intention of giving it technical superiority over both the American and Chinese militaries.  Later that week, the Russian Duma overwhelmingly passes a constitutional amendment creating Putin as the “Premier of Russia” and officially relegates President Medvedev to an advisory role with even less relative power than the Vice President of the United States.

Reaction across the world is negative.  British Prime Minister David Cameron condemns the actions as “deliberately provocative” and “a disturbing reminder of a time not long ago when East and West were at each other’s throats.”  Chinese Premier Hu Jintao, through a spokesman, questions the motivations behind the events, even implying they may purely be a power move by Putin.  President Jon Kyl, accompanied by Secretary of State John Bolton, criticizes Putin.  Kyl says, “One of the paramount goals of my Presidency was to increase and improve relations with Russia.  I am deeply disappointed that its leader has behaved not like the ally I thought he was, but like an adversary.  Let it be known that the United States is constantly modernizing its military and no American should fear a foreign power’s military capabilities compared to our own.”

Presidential candidate Bill Richardson takes the opportunity to criticize Kyl’s handling of the entire situation.  “We have a President who is essentially declaring an arms race,” says Richardson.  “Let’s not forget that the reason I quit as Secretary of State was because Kyl was babying the Russians and allowing them to commit gruesome acts on sects of their population in order to further our alliance with them.  Now, he’s done a complete turnaround and is attempting to draw Russia into conflict.”  Hearing of the news, Martin O’Malley suddenly wishes he had chosen his words far more carefully.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #401 on: January 01, 2011, 11:10:28 PM »

Called it! Smiley
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Yates
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« Reply #402 on: January 02, 2011, 10:12:56 PM »

“Four Years Wiser”



Former Oklahoma Governor Brad Henry was the runner-up for the 2008 Democratic nomination.  His late entry into the race may have cost him early money and support, but also gained him significant momentum as many voters saw him as the fresh face to oppose frontrunner Dick Durbin.  With executive experience, relative youth and moderate views, Henry was a force in 2008 and has been considered to be one of the potential frontrunners in 2012.

On February 6, 2011, Henry declares his candidacy for President of the United States.  He had previously indicated that if he were to run again, he would enter early, and he has followed through.  His announcement speech is perceived as safe and underwhelming.  There are few notable lines and the speech is mostly biographical.  Political scientist Larry Sabato says of the speech, “Henry needs to realize he’s not the new hot commodity anymore.  He’s old news.  He can’t just expect to pick up where he left off; he’s gotta offer something new to voters.”  Largely based off of name recognition, however, Henry is polling high among the announced candidates nationwide.

MSNBC Poll
Democratic Nomination – Announced Candidates
If your primary or caucus was today, who would receive your vote?
[32%] Bill Richardson
[29%] Brad Henry
[8%] Martin O’Malley
[31%] Unsure


MSNBC also polls Republicans and finds that Congressman Reichert’s heavy campaigning and media blitz has paid off.

MSNBC Poll
Republican Nomination – Announced Candidates
If your primary or caucus was today, who would receive your vote?
[45%] Jon Kyl
[30%] Dave Reichert
[25%] Unsure


The numbers are highly concerning to Kyl’s team, who resolve to start the President’s active campaign earlier than anticipated.  The media is kept on guard, however, by an upcoming major announcement from Bill Richardson.
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feeblepizza
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« Reply #403 on: January 03, 2011, 12:08:45 PM »

Still rooting for Kyl. I hope that Durbin runs again, as well. That will keep Obama down until 2016 or 2020.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #404 on: January 19, 2011, 05:30:13 PM »

Oh, hey, turns out this thread had terminal brain cancer.

Topic locked.
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