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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  America: 2000-2016
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Yates
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« Reply #50 on: December 22, 2006, 06:27:54 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

Matthews: Welcome back to MSNBC’s live coverage of Election Night 2004.  We’re here with our panel, who we’re going to now introduce.  Joining us are political analyst James Carville, his wife Mary Matalin, and former Congressman Steve Largent.

James, I’ll go to you first.  What are the big states in play here tonight?

Carville: Well, Chris, this election is very odd in that many states are in play that aren’t usually up for the taking.  We’ve got Roy Barnes’ home state of Georgia, the state of West Virginia, the state of Minnesota.  Then again, we’ve also got the big three – Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  There’s a swing state every hour.

Matthews: Mary, what information do you think we can get from the exit polls?

Matalin: Well, I think it’s obvious that the plurality of Americans care more about terrorism than any other issue.  I forgot what the poll said exactly, but it was something over one third of Americans who listed terrorism as their top priority, and that’s very good for Bush.  As for the other polls, they don’t make too much of a difference in my view.

Matthews: James, I see you shaking your head.

Carville: My wife’s wrong again.  Sure, the plurality said terrorism was most important, but the majority said something else was most important.  The vast majority of those who listed Iraq or the economy as their most important issue are going for Barnes.

Matthews: Congressman Largent, how effective do you think the Republican turnout machine will be in this election?

Largent: It’s always very effective, and it will be effective in this election.  Americans care deeply about national security, and the Republican Party has a message of keeping us safe.  Americans will realize that when they vote.

Matthews: Alright, we’re going to begin calling the first states in a few minutes.  I want a final prediction from all of you.  James, you first.

Carville: I think terrorism is helping Bush, but I think too many people made up their minds before the attack, so I’ll say Barnes by two percent in the popular vote with two hundred eighty something electoral votes.

Matthews: Mary, your prediction.

Matalin: I disagree with my husband.  Too many Americans care too deeply about terrorism.  I say Bush wins by five in the popular vote and with over three hundred electoral votes.

Matthews: Congressman Largent.

Largent: I think President Bush will win solidly.

Matthews: Thank you to our panel, and stay tuned – we begin calling our first states in about thirty minutes.  Don’t go away.

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Yates
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« Reply #51 on: December 22, 2006, 07:00:30 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

It’s 7:00 and we can begin our first round of projections for the night.  But before we do that, let’s review the map we’ll be using to calculate the results.



As the night progresses, this map will be filled in with red and blue.  When we project that a state is won by President Bush, we’ll color it red.  When a state is projected for Governor Barnes, we’ll color is blue.  Whoever gets 270 electoral votes first wins.  We’ll keep track of the electoral vote count.  Also, if a state is too close to call, we won’t be able to call it right away.

Let’s get right to it.


At this time, we are able to call the state of Indiana for President Bush.

PRESIDENT
Indiana


[X] George W. Bush

We can now call the state of Kentucky for the President.

PRESIDENT
Kentucky


[X] George W. Bush

Also for the President at this time is South Carolina.

PRESIDENT
South Carolina


[X] George W. Bush

The first state we can call for Governor Barnes is Vermont.

PRESIDENT
Vermont


[X] Roy Barnes

The states of Georgia, New Hampshire, and Virginia are too close to call at this time.

Let’s see what this does to our electoral map here.



At this time, President Bush has 27 electoral votes, and Governor Barnes has 3.  For Barnes supporters, don’t be alarmed, and Bush supporters, don’t be too pleased.  These states were expected to go their respective ways.  When we come to a major state, we’ll let you know.
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Yates
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« Reply #52 on: December 22, 2006, 07:30:27 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

It’s 7:30 and we have more poll closings at this time.  We can tell you right now that both Ohio and West Virginia are too close to call at this time.  However, we are able to make a projection in the state of North Carolina.

PRESIDENT
North Carolina


[X] George W. Bush

President Bush has won the state of North Carolina, and that his brought his electoral vote total up to 42.  Our updated electoral map looks like this:


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Yates
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« Reply #53 on: December 22, 2006, 07:51:26 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

At this time, we can now call the state of Virginia for President Bush.

PRESIDENT
Virginia


[X] George W. Bush

This brings the President’s electoral vote total to 55 at this time.  Governor Barnes still has only 3 electoral votes.  The updated electoral map looks like this:



Virginia was a state that was really up in the air earlier in the election season.  However, this loss is far from fatal to the Barnes campaign.
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Yates
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« Reply #54 on: December 22, 2006, 08:13:26 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

It’s 8:00 and we have a load of states to call.

At this time, we can call the state of Alabama for President Bush.  Nothing unexpected there.

PRESIDENT
Alabama


[X] George W. Bush

We can also now call the state of Kansas for the President.

PRESIDENT
Kansas


[X] George W. Bush

Also now, we can call the state of Mississippi for Bush.

PRESIDENT
Mississippi


[X] George W. Bush

We can call Oklahoma for Bush.

PRESIDENT
Oklahoma


[X] George W. Bush

We can now call Tennessee for the President.

PRESIDENT
Tennessee


[X] George W. Bush

And, finally, we can project that President Bush has won his home state of Texas.

PRESIDENT
Texas


[X] George W. Bush

We also have plenty of states to call for Roy Barnes at this time.

We can call the state of Connecticut for Barnes.

PRESIDENT
Connecticut


[X] Roy Barnes

We can project that Barnes will win Delaware.

PRESIDENT
Delaware


[X] Roy Barnes

Roy Barnes will win the District of Columbia, not surprisingly.

PRESIDENT
District of Columbia


[X] Roy Barnes

Barnes will win the state of Illinois.

PRESIDENT
Illinois


[X] Roy Barnes

Maine, and both of its Congressional districts, are going for Barnes.

PRESIDENT
Maine


[X] Roy Barnes

Maryland is going for Barnes.

PRESIDENT
Maryland


[X] Roy Barnes

Massachusetts is fulfilling its role as a traditional blue state and going for Barnes.

PRESIDENT
Massachusetts


[X] Roy Barnes

And, finally, the state of New Jersey is being carried by Barnes.

PRESIDENT
New Jersey


[X] Roy Barnes

Let’s take a look at our updated electoral map:



President Bush has now secured 128 electoral votes, nearly half of the way to the 270 needed.  Governor Barnes now has 78 electoral votes.

The states of Georgia, New Hampshire, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, Missouri, and Pennsylvania are currently too close to call.  We’ll let you know if we get anything new on these states.

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Yates
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« Reply #55 on: December 22, 2006, 08:15:01 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We now have a major projection.  We can project that Roy Barnes will win the state of Pennsylvania.

PRESIDENT
Pennsylvania


[X] Roy Barnes

This isn’t too big of a surprise, as Barnes led here in the polls consistently throughout the election season.  However, this is one of the “big three” states that usually determines the election.

Let’s see what this does to our electoral map:



Governor Barnes now has 99 electoral votes, behind President Bush’s 128.  The gap is closing.
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Yates
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« Reply #56 on: December 22, 2006, 08:30:48 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

It’s 8:30 and the polls have now closed in Arkansas.  At this time, the state is too close to call.
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Yates
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« Reply #57 on: December 22, 2006, 08:35:09 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

At this time, we have a projection to make.  The state of West Virginia is now projected to go for Governor Roy Barnes.

PRESIDENT
West Virginia


[X] Roy Barnes

This is a historically Democratic state, but George W. Bush won it in 2000.  Roy Barnes has won it back for the Democrats.

This state brings Barnes over the 100 mark with 104 electoral votes in our electoral map.



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True Democrat
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #58 on: December 22, 2006, 08:41:39 PM »

Do you have any of the state's %'s?
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Yates
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« Reply #59 on: December 22, 2006, 08:42:47 PM »

Do you have any of the state's %'s?

I will post those at the completion of the election.  If you would like to know the percentages for one or two specific states, I would be happy to provide.  Also, later in the evening, when there are only a few states remaining, the precincts will come in one by one, and you will see the percentages.
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Yates
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« Reply #60 on: December 22, 2006, 09:05:25 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

It’s 9:00 and we have plenty of states to call.

We can project a winner in the state of Louisiana.  President Bush has won the state.  No surprise there.

PRESIDENT
Louisiana


[X] George W. Bush

President Bush has also won the state of Nebraska and all of its Congressional districts.

PRESIDENT
Nebraska


[X] George W. Bush

The state of South Dakota is also going for the President.

PRESIDENT
South Dakota


[X] George W. Bush

And, finally, Lynne Cheney’s home state of Wyoming is going for her ticket.

PRESIDENT
Wyoming


[X] George W. Bush

Governor Barnes, in the mean time, has won the state of New York.

PRESIDENT
New York


[X] Roy Barnes

We are also projecting the state of Rhode Island for Barnes.

PRESIDENT
Rhode Island


[X] Roy Barnes

The states of Arizona, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Wisconsin are all too close to call at this time.

Let’s see how this adjusts our electoral map.




The electoral count is very close.  President Bush has 148 electoral votes locked up.  Governor Barnes has 139.
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Yates
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« Reply #61 on: December 22, 2006, 09:10:05 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We can now project the state of Arizona for President Bush.

PRESIDENT
Arizona


[X] George W. Bush

This is not too much of a surprise.

President Bush’s electoral vote total is now increased to 158.


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Yates
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« Reply #62 on: December 22, 2006, 09:16:53 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We are now able to project a winner in Arkansas.  That state is going for President Bush.

PRESIDENT
Arkansas


[X] George W. Bush

As you know, Arkansas is the home state of the Clintons and of Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Wesley Clark.  The Barnes campaign hoped to pick this one up, but it seems they’ll be a bit disappointed.

This raised President Bush’s electoral vote total to 164.



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Yates
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« Reply #63 on: December 22, 2006, 09:26:46 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

It’s time to make an important projection.  The state of Minnesota is will be won by President George W. Bush.

PRESIDENT
Minnesota


[X] George W. Bush

Minnesota is a traditionally Democratic state, but after the terrorist attack at the Mall of America last month, and President Bush’s visit to the state, it appeared to turn sharply for the President.  It is one of the states where terrorism was the most important issue, and that played well for the President.

President Bush has now locked up 174 electoral votes.  Governor Barnes has 139.



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Yates
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« Reply #64 on: December 22, 2006, 09:30:23 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We can now project that Governor Barnes will win the state of Michigan and it’s 17 electoral votes.

PRESIDENT
Michigan


[X] Roy Barnes

This isn’t the biggest surprise of the night, but it is still good news for Barnes.

Barnes’ total in the electoral vote has gone up to 156, still behind President Bush’s 174.



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Yates
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« Reply #65 on: December 22, 2006, 09:34:46 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We can now project that President Bush has narrowly won the state of Colorado and its nine electoral votes.

PRESIDENT
Colorado


[X] George W. Bush

This brings Bush’s total in the electoral college up to 183.

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Yates
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« Reply #66 on: December 22, 2006, 09:42:48 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We have a major projection now.  President Bush will win the state of Missouri.

PRESIDENT
Missouri


[X] George W. Bush

As you may know, if you are a big-time political junkie like me, Missouri is what is known as a “bellwether” state, in that it usually votes with the winner of the election.  Of course, this doesn’t mean that President Bush has been re-elected just yet, but it is obviously being celebrated at Bush headquarters.

With this win, President Bush’s electoral vote total is brought up to 194.



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Gabu
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« Reply #67 on: December 22, 2006, 09:47:50 PM »

I AM RELEASING A VIDEO

IT IS CALLED "LOOSE CHANGE PT. 2" AND CLEARLY SHOWS THAT BUSH ORCHESTRATED THE OCTOBER SURPRISE IN ORDER TO WIN THE ELECTION

I DO THIS BY DRAWING RANDOM CIRCLES AND ARROWS OVERTOP PHOTOS AVAILABLE TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC AND PUTTING THESE PICTURES INTO A MONTAGE COMBINED WITH OMINOUS MUSIC FROM MY FAVORITE MOVIE
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Yates
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« Reply #68 on: December 22, 2006, 09:48:29 PM »

Haha.
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Yates
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« Reply #69 on: December 22, 2006, 10:00:24 PM »
« Edited: December 22, 2006, 10:08:08 PM by Yates »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

It’s 10:00, and we have several projections to make.

President Bush, as expected, has won the state of Idaho.

PRESIDENT
Idaho


[X] George W. Bush

Bush has won the state of Montana, which was closer earlier in the campaign.

PRESIDENT
Montana


[X] George W. Bush

Bush has won the state of North Dakota.

PRESIDENT
North Dakota


[X] George W. Bush

And, finally, President Bush has won the state of Utah.

PRESIDENT
Utah


[X] George W. Bush

None of this was unexpected.

The states of Iowa and Nevada are too close to call at the time, along with Georgia, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

These wins bring President Bush’s electoral total above 200 to 209, needing only 61 more electoral votes to win the election.



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Gabu
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« Reply #70 on: December 22, 2006, 10:06:16 PM »

President Bush’s electoral total ... [is] 209 [and he needs] only 261 more electoral votes to win the election.

I think there's a slight typo in there, unless the Democrats rigged the election to require 470 electoral votes for a Republican to win. Smiley
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Yates
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« Reply #71 on: December 22, 2006, 10:08:32 PM »

Thank you, Gabu.  I have corrected that error. Smiley
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Yates
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« Reply #72 on: December 22, 2006, 10:15:29 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We now have a major projection.  President Bush has won the state of Ohio, a critical state, and its 20 electoral votes.

PRESIDENT
President


[X] George W. Bush

Ohio is one of the “big three” states which sometimes determine elections.  This is a huge win for the Bush campaign any way you slice it.

President Bush’s electoral vote total is now 229, only 41 away from a victory.  Governor Barnes has 156.


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Yates
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« Reply #73 on: December 22, 2006, 10:47:39 PM »

I have a few out-of-storyline announcements.

I would like to first say that there will be no recounts of any sort.  The winner will be announced before 1:00 A.M.  The candidate who does not win will concede defeat.

Secondly, I will be leaving tomorrow for a family vacation to Quebec City and will not return until the second of January, after which I will continue the storyline, if you wish.  If you wish for me to continue the storyline after tonight, please inform me.

Third, starting at approximately midnight, the race will be determined by five states currently in the "too close to call" category.  There will be updates every ten minutes with the current results of these states.

Fourth, full election results will be posted when I return from my trip.

I do hope that you are enjoying this real-time election night.
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CPT MikeyMike
mikeymike
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« Reply #74 on: December 22, 2006, 10:56:07 PM »

If you wish for me to continue the storyline after tonight, please inform me.


Absolutely! Smiley

I didn't get the see the actual 2004 election because I was in the field.  It took my wife to call me cell (in tears) that President Bush won. She didn't vote for him, I did though.  Anyhow, this is the closest thing to an election night for me in years and I appreciate it very much! Election nights are like the Super Bowl for me!

Anyhow, have a safe and happy trip and great job on this timeline! Smiley
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