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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #50 on: December 22, 2006, 11:15:00 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We now have some very good news for the Barnes campaign.  Governor Roy Barnes has won his home state of Georgia.

PRESIDENT
Georgia


[X] Roy Barnes

Georgia voters evidently approved of their Governor’s promotion.  Two years ago, Barnes won re-election in the state of Georgia, and now he has won it in a Presidential race.

For the first time this evening, Barnes has taken the lead in the electoral college, with 241 electoral votes, only 29 away from the Presidency.



Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #51 on: December 22, 2006, 11:23:50 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We are now ready to project Roy Barnes the winner in the state of Oregon.

PRESIDENT
Oregon


[X] Roy Barnes

This expected victory gives Barnes a lock on at least 248 electoral votes, 22 away from the White House.

Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #52 on: December 22, 2006, 11:41:26 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We can now project that President Bush is the winner in Nevada.

PRESIDENT
Nevada


[X] George W. Bush

This brings his electoral vote total up to 234, 36 away from re-election.

Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #53 on: December 22, 2006, 11:58:19 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

Polls in Alaska have now closed, and we can project President Bush the winner.

PRESIDENT
Alaska


[X] George W. Bush

This brings Bush to 237 electoral votes, 33 away from re-election.

Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #54 on: December 22, 2006, 11:59:24 PM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

There are five states left which will determine the winner of the 2004 Presidential election.  We’re going to take a look at the results so far in each of them.

In New Hampshire, with 95% of precincts reporting, President Bush leads with 49.87% to Governor Barnes’ 49.54%.  The lead here has shifted all night, and it’ll keep us up way past our bedtimes.

In New Mexico, with 82% of precincts reporting, President Bush has a small lead of 50.11% to Governor Barnes’ 48.96%. 

In Wisconsin, Barnes has a miniscule lead with 49.45% to Bush’s 49.41% with 91% of precincts reporting.  This is just one example of how every vote counts.

In Iowa, President Bush is leading narrowly.  With 85% of precincts reporting, Bush has 50.02%, while Barnes has 49.17%.

Now Florida’s the big state everybody’s watching.  With 96% of precincts reporting, Barnes is leading barely with 49.64%, while Bush is very close behind with 49.33%.  It seems that 2000 may repeat itself.

However, we have had very few reports of voting errors, so maybe we’ll be spared a recount.  We’ll give you another update very soon.


Electoral Vote
Barnes: 248
Bush: 237
Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #55 on: December 23, 2006, 12:08:40 AM »

I have to say Yates, this is a good nailbiter for a forum what-if race. Keep it up!

Thank you, Mike.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #56 on: December 23, 2006, 12:09:01 AM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We are now ready to project the state of New Hampshire.  New Hampshire will be won by President George W. Bush, who carried it in 2000.

PRESIDENT
New Hampshire


[X] George W. Bush

With this victory, President Bush now has 241 electoral votes locked up.

The electoral map now looks like this:




Four states remain to determine the Presidency.

In New Mexico, with 90% of the precincts reporting, President Bush leads with 50.21% to Barnes’ 49.12%. 

In Wisconsin, President Bush has taken a very tiny lead with 94% of the precincts reporting.  He currently registers in with 49.48% of the vote compared to Governor Barnes’ 49.46%.

In Iowa, with 92% of the precincts reporting, President Bush has increased his lead to 50.49% to Governor Barnes’ 49.08%.

In the big one, Florida, President Bush has taken a narrow lead.  With 97% of the precincts reporting, Bush has 49.44% of the vote to Barnes’ 49.21%. 

This race is anyone’s guess.  We’ll keep you updated.


Electoral Vote
Barnes: 248
Bush: 241
Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #57 on: December 23, 2006, 12:16:09 AM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We are now ready to project the result in another state.  We can safely say that President Bush has won the state of Iowa, a Gore state four years ago.

PRESIDENT
State


[X] George W. Bush

And, would you believe it, we now have a 248-248 tie in the electoral college.  This election is a nail-biter, a photo finish.



There are now three states that will determine the Presidency – Wisconsin, New Mexico, and Florida.

In Wisconsin, the lead has switched again.  With 96% of the precincts reporting, Governor Barnes has 49.51% of the vote, while President Bush has 49.38%.

In Florida, Governor Barnes has retaken his earlier lead, and now has 49.37% of the vote, as compared to Bush’s 49.32%, with 98% of the precincts reporting.

Electoral Vote
Barnes: 248
Bush: 248
Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #58 on: December 23, 2006, 12:22:52 AM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We are now prepared to declare President Bush the winner in the state of New Mexico.

PRESIDENT
New Mexico


[X] George W. Bush

This victory gives Bush 253 electoral votes and a lead in the electoral college count.



Two states remain – Wisconsin and Florida: the states that will determine the winner of the 2004 Presidential election.

In Wisconsin, the lead has switched yet again.  With 98% of the precincts reporting, President Bush has 49.50% of the vote, while Roy Barnes has 49.41%.

In Florida, the vote has tightened ever so slightly.  Barnes still leads.  He has 49.36%, while Bush has 49.33%. 

It’s the finale, folks.


Electoral Vote
Bush: 253
Barnes: 248
Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #59 on: December 23, 2006, 12:29:07 AM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

We have a winner in Wisconsin.  The winner is President Bush.

PRESIDENT
State


[X] George W. Bush

This victory gives President Bush 263 electoral votes, only seven away from victory.



It all comes down to Florida, just like it did four years ago.

Right now, with 99% of the precincts reporting in Florida, Roy Barnes leads with 49.35%, with President Bush just behind with 49.33%. 

It all comes down to this.  Let’s hope that, by our next update, we know who our next President is.


Electoral Vote
Bush: 263
Barnes: 248
Logged
Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #60 on: December 23, 2006, 12:38:01 AM »

MSNBC Live
Election Night Coverage

WE HAVE A WINNER.


With 99% of the precincts reporting in Florida, we are ready to project a winner.

PRESIDENT
Florida


[X] Roy Barnes

Roy Barnes
44th President of the United States




I hope that you enjoyed the 2004 Election section of this fiction as much as I enjoyed writing it.  I will return in early January to continue this timeline.  Thank you for reading.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #61 on: January 01, 2007, 04:38:35 PM »

I have returned from my trip and will soon be continuing this.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #62 on: January 01, 2007, 11:58:22 PM »

The 2004 Senatorial elections remained somewhat the same, though Betty Castor was elected over Mel Martinez in Florida and Erskine Bowles was victorious in North Carolina.  John Thune was elected Senator for South Dakota over token opposition, as Tom Daschle decided not to run for re-election in order to run for President.  The Senate is led by 53 Republican seats, as opposed to 46 Democratic seat, and one Democratic-affiliated Independent.  The Senate Majority Leader is Rick Santorum, who was elected after Trent Lott's controversial remarks in 2002.  The Senate Majority Whip is Jon Kyl.  The Senate Minority Leader is Dick Durbin, who beat out Harry Reid, who remains as Minority Whip.

The Republicans have a weak majority in the House of Representatives.  Dennis Hastert remains as speaker.  Tom DeLay is Majority Leader, while Eric Cantor is Majority Whip.  The Minority Leader is Steny Hoyer, who was previously Minority Whip.  The Minority Whip is Nancy Pelosi.  Dick Gephardt retired after a failed Presidential bid.

The next update shall be soon.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #63 on: January 02, 2007, 12:03:58 AM »

Note: Senator Paul Wellstone was not killed in a plane crash in 2002.  He survived, along with all else on board, and went on to win re-election.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #64 on: January 03, 2007, 07:57:14 PM »

The next update will be tonight.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #65 on: January 03, 2007, 10:22:09 PM »

The Barnes/Clark Administration

In January 2005, President Roy Barnes and Vice President Wesley Clark are sworn in.  In his inaugural address, President Barnes discusses the need for America to emerge once again as the world's moral leader.  Analysts interpret this as Barnes' intention to adopt a more internationalist foreign policy than the Bush Administration.

On his second day in office, President Barnes issues an Executive Order.  In this Executive Order, all troops are to be pulled from Iraq by January 1st, 2006.  This action is immediately applauded by almost all Democrats and many Republicans.  Only neoconservatives oppose this.

Rasmussen Reports
Barnes Approval Rating
January 25th, 2005
Approve: 67%
Disapprove: 32%
Unsure: 1%

There is an attempt made in Congress, led by Senate Majority Leader Rick Santorum and House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, to override this Executive Order.  However, the majority of Republicans vote to uphold it, causing division among the ranks of Congressional Republicans, and, as some see it, dimishing the power of the two leaders.

President Barnes, in Febraury, appoints Vice President Clark and General John Abizaid to organize an effective timeline for the withdrawl of troops.  In the plan created, the majority of troops will be redeployed by April.  However, as the troops are being pulled out of Iraq, a new threat emerges across the border.

New Iranian leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has announced his intentions of obtaining nuclear power for his country.  This announcement is widely interpreted as a desire to build nuclear weapons.  In a written statement, Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke says, "It would be irresponsible for the world community to allow this rogue nation to attain nuclear weapons."  In a similar statement, President Barnes says, "My administration is monitoring this threat very carefully.  We will do what we can to ensure that Iran does not get nuclear weapons."

In April 2005, President Barnes hosts a summit of world leaders in Washington.  The leaders of most of the worlds nations are invited, with notable exclusions being Fidel Castro, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong Il, and Hugo Chavez.  In this summit, Barnes expresses his regret for President Bush's foreign policy, and says that he desires to be more of a Clinton-style internationalist leader.  The summit bodes well for America's international standing, and many of the leaders in attendance express their approval with the new President.

On the economic front, the stock market is soaring.  The housing market is rebounding.  According to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, "America's economy is back."  Meanwhile, President Barnes has released to Congress at balanced budget, and a plan to make the American government debt free by 2012. 

For the actions in his first months in office, President Barnes is extraordinarily popular with the American public. 

Rasmussen Reports
Barnes Approval Rating
July 10th, 2006
Approve: 76%
Disapprove: 22%
Unsure: 2%

In Congress, President Barnes, Dick Durbin, and Steny Hoyer have led the Democrats in having many legislative successes, despite their minority status, due largely to the centrist ideology expoused in many of the bills, which have garnered the votes of many Republicans in Congress.  According to Senator Mike Ciresi, elected in 2000, "Democrats have a minority of the seats in the House and Senate, but we're able to control the flow of Congress as though we had a solid majority."  Senate Majority Whip Jon Kyl is not as pleased.  "We're seeing a Majority Leader who isn't keeping our coalition in line," says Kyl.

2005, so far, is a wonderful year for President Barnes and Congressional Democrats.  However, the times ahead will prove that, in politics, everything can change in a very short time span.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Coming Next
President Barnes and his allies have had a fine start, but things are about to change for the worst.  The Iraq War may be over, but another Middle Eastern country may be a new target.  Senate Republicans aren't pleased with Leader Santorum.  Things in Washington will radically change.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #66 on: January 04, 2007, 09:08:26 PM »

The next update will be within two hours.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #67 on: January 04, 2007, 10:05:04 PM »

On August 29, 2005 Hurricane Katrina hit. Will that be included in the timeline?

Thank you, Mr. Naso.  Yes, it shall be.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #68 on: January 04, 2007, 11:38:03 PM »

This fiction is written purely for entertainment purposes, and does not reflect the wishes nor the opinions of its author.

Barnes/Clark :: The Turning Point

2005 has been going quite smoothly.  President Barnes is enormously popular and the Republican opposition is largely ineffective. 

Republicans in the Senate begin to speak out against their leader, Rick Santorum.  Senator Jon Kyl, the Majority Whip, says, "Santorum's simply ineffective.  He doesn't get anything done."  Senator Mike DeWine alleges, "What have we done?  We have a majority of the votes yet we're taking it from the Democrats."  Several Senate Republicans begin calling for Santorum to step down as leader, and in late July 2005, he does so.  Unanimously, Senator Jon Kyl is elected to replace him.  Senator Chuck Grassley is elected Majority Whip.

Shortly after being elected, Senate Majority Leader Kyl announces that he will be commanding a much tighter ship.  Republicans who join the Democrats in key votes will be stripped of valuable committee seats.  In early August, after being punished for voting against the Republicans on a bill finalizing troop withdrawls from Iraq, Senator Arlen Specter joins the Democratic Party, giving the Republicans only a four seat advantage.

In late August 2005, Hurricane Katrina slams into New Orleans, flooding the city and resulting in the death of thousands and the destruction of hundreds of thousands of homes.  In a statement from the White House Rose Garden, President Barnes announces that, "The federal government will be taking a back seat in the recovery efforts.  This is a job for the state and local governments."  The remark is immediately met by strong criticism, from both sides of the aisle.  Barnes backtracks his position and orders federal aid to the area.

Rasmussen Reports
Barnes Approval Rating
September 5th, 2005
Approve: 65%
Disapprove: 32%
Unsure: 3%

THE NEW WAR

On September 15th, 2005, fifty C.I.A. agents are sent across Iran to dismantle its atomic energy program, an action directly ordered by President Barnes.  The operation is a disaster; all fifty agents are killed.  Immediately, there is outcry as to why this mission was ordered.  On the left, the operation is criticized for a lack of necessity.  On the right, there are criticisms regarding the weakness of this mission.  Congressman Tom Tancredo says, "What Barnes should've done is drop a huge bomb right on Tehran."

In an Oval Office speech, President Barnes announces that, because of the Iranian government's murder of fifty American federal agents and because of the potential threat posed by a nuclear Iran, the United States would be initiating military action to remove Iran's ability to attain nuclear capacity.  On October 21st, 2005, the United States Air Force bombs sixteen strategic sites around Iran.  Four planes are shot down, but the operation is generally a success.  However, in response, Iran launches over fifty missiles at the State of Israel.

The cities of Tel Aviv, Haifa, Eilat, and Jerusalem, are all hit with missiles.  Over two hundred Israelis are killed, and one of the missiles destroyed the sacred Western Wall in Jerusalem.  Missiles also struck Israeli military bases, severely weakening the nation. 

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon orders the launch of a nuclear weapon at Tehran.  When the bomb explodes, over 40,000 people are instantly killed.  Iran responds by launching a missile at the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk, which was on patrol in the Red Sea.  Thirty-two sailors are killed.

President Barnes is horrified by the sudden escalation of what he had intended to be a small and quick military operation.  From all ideologies, he is again being attacked.  Senator Paul Wellstone cries, "We elected Barnes to end war, not make more of it!."  Senate Majority Leader Jon Kyl says, "This is the most idiotic handling of a military conflict in our nation's history."  Kyl, along with House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, and several other prominent Republicans, calls on Barnes to resign.

Meanwhile, Syria declares war on Israel for what its President calls a, "crime against humanity."  Israeli and Syrian fighter planes soon have a prolonged battle over the Golan Heights.  Syrian ground forces invade Israel through the mountains, only to be met by Israeli tanks.  President Barnes announces that he will be proposing a cease-fire for all parties involved.  Prime Minister Sharon agrees.  However, Iran and Syria do not. 

The situation quickly evolves into a larger war, as Russia proceeds to aid Iran and Syria, providing them with weapons.  China gives financial aid to Iran.  The United Kingdom and Austrailia provide Israel with aid, and Britain declares war on Syria and Iran. 

At a cabinet meeting in November, it is quickly determined that this conflict has evolved into World War III.  Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke is sent to the United Nations to attempt to come to some temporary break in the fighting, but is quickly rejected.

Rasmussen Reports
Barnes Approval Rating
December 1st, 2005
Approve: 25%
Disapprove: 74%
Unsure: 1%

Do you trust President Barnes to lead America through World War III?
Yes: 19%
No: 77%
Unsure: 4%

On December 10th, President Barnes calls 250,000 reserve troops to active duty.  Vice President Clark is charged with preparing the war's grand strategy. 

On Christmas Day, President Barnes holds a private meeting with Vice President Clark.  In the meetings, Barnes tells Clark that he does not feel as though he is capable of leading America during this time.

-----------------------------------------------
Coming Next:
President Barnes makes a difficult decision, America struggles in the new world war, the opposition gets more fierce.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #69 on: January 05, 2007, 03:31:26 PM »

Colin, in my post, I detailed the amount of foreign nations which are getting involved.  China and Russia have been assisting Iran and the United Kingdom has declared war on Syria and Iran, for example.  I would also like to contest your assertion that Israel would not use nuclear weapons in such a scenario.  Israeli generals have hinted at doing so when questioned about the Iranian nuclear threat, and they have taken a position of ambiguity rather than denial in the past when speaking on Israel's nuclear capability.

Thank you for your objections, however.  I will try to elaborate further in my next update, which will be tonight, how the rest of the world is involved.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #70 on: January 05, 2007, 03:43:53 PM »


Those four words of your above post highlight what I am trying to depict. 
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #71 on: January 05, 2007, 04:59:36 PM »


This evening.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #72 on: January 05, 2007, 05:00:02 PM »

It's just a fictional story about what the world would be like if Barnes was president.

I am not suggesting that a Barnes Presidency would lead to such chaos.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #73 on: January 05, 2007, 05:45:35 PM »


Those four words of your above post highlight what I am trying to depict. 

What I was trying to say was that it would take the Israelis retaliating with a completely out of proportion response to nuke Iran. Thus it would be vengeance that has gone out of control. The Israelis, to a greater extent than Americans, are realists when it comes to military and foreign policy mostly because they have to be.

I sort of get the sense that Yates is purposefully overdramatizing things for interest's sake.

Quite.
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Yates
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,873


Political Matrix
E: -0.38, S: 1.54

« Reply #74 on: January 06, 2007, 12:07:48 AM »

2006

On January 5th, 2006, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez announces that he will no longer be selling oil in the United States.  Several Middle Eastern nations make similar announcements.  The sudden decrease in the oil supply creates a severe economic recession.  The stock market nearly crashes on several occasions, and investor confidence is extraordinarily low in what becomes known as the "Panic of 2006."  In order to help alleviate the effects of the Panic, President Barnes taps America's oil reserves, something most Presidents have been very hesitant to do.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has declared war on Russia in response to Russia's continued aid to Iran and Syria.  Within weeks, Britain destroys the Russian Navy.  Russian Vladimir Putin announces, "If the attacks on my country continue, I'll give your enemies the weapon which all fear."  This is, obviously, a reference to Russia's stockpile, and the potential of a nuclear weapon falling into the hands of Islamist fundamentalists.

"I'm not the one."

In late January, President Barnes is having serious doubts regarding his ability to lead America through this World War.  In a cabinet meeting on January 25th, Barnes informs his top advisors that he is seriously considering resigning from office, and handing the responsibility of the job to Vice President Clark.

On January 28th, President Barnes, in the time slot originally slated for his State of the Union address, speaks to the American people.  In the speech, Barnes expresses regret over his quick decision to attack Iran, the spark which started the war.  "America needs a leader to bring it through this crisis," says Barnes.  "I'm not the one.  Therefore, I am resigning the Presidency effective immediately.  At the conclusion of this speech, Wesley Clark will take the oath of office and become our nation's President.  To the American people: I am sorry.  May God Bless this great nation through our darkest period."

That evening, Wesley Clark takes the oath of office.


Wesley Clark
45th President of the United States

---------------------------------------------
Coming Next:
How will President Clark lead our nation through this war?  Will he have more success than his predecessor?  In these dangerous times, things can change very quickly, and they will.
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