Confederate States

[TommyC1776]

What if the Confederates won the war?  What would election maps look like?

[ATFFL]

What if the Confederates won the war?  What would election maps look like?

Depends.  Did they win with enough strength to claim the border states?  Did they only keep their independence?

[Ben.]

Well in the CSA, I could see Conservatives vs Rural Populist with a small Socialist Party (based on the support of urban organised labour).

In the North the Democrats would probably have evolved in a leftward direction (as they did) into a populist party with rural western support and urban blue collar support) mean while the Republican would have been the pro-business and nationalist party (as they where) with strong support in the far west and south west, New England and the MidAtlantic states but party identification would have had less to do with geography and more to do with social status…

The USA (1880’s)…

Blue = Republican leaning areas

Red = Democrat leaning areas

Green = Confederate States of America  

     

The CSA (1880’s)…

Red = Populist Party leaning states

Blue = Conservative Party leaning states

Green = United States of America

           

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A lot would depend upon the circumstances of their leaving.  If the seven original seceders had been allowed to depart in peace, then that would have been the extent of it. By 1870, a gradual compensated emancipation would have been in place in the United States.  By 1880, if the seven departed states tried to gain readmittance, they would be rebuffed, as the United States would not want them, not because of slavery, but because of all the negros (to use the politer term in place of the one that would have been actually used).  This also helps to explain why we didn't annex Cuba at the end of the Spanish-American War.  The CSA would basically be equivalent to Jamaica or Mexico by 2000 in terms of economics and the sucking sound that a Perot-like anti NAFTA character would have referred to would have been of jobs going to the CSA.

As for the South winning an actual war of Independence, I just don't see it happening.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Here's an 1876 map of mine own:

Blue = USA - Free states
Grey = USA - Gradual Emancipation states
Red = USA - Slave states
Green - CSA - Slave states

New Jersey is not a mistake.  This was the status of New Jersey as of the Civil War,  and there were still a few slaves there in 1860, but its gradual emancipation had been going on so long that it was effectively a free state in all but name.

West Virginia is also not a mistake. There were greivances between East and West Virginia besides the slavery issue and it is entirely feasible that the spilt woud have occurred even without the Civil War, altho the boundary would be different, probably includung Danville in WV while Harper's Ferry would have remained in VA, if a split occurred.

[??????????]

Why in the world would Arkansas be in the union? Also, Maryland would have gone to the Confederacy as well.

[PBrunsel]

Why in the world would Arkansas be in the union? Also, Maryland would have gone to the Confederacy as well.

Not Maryland. Only if the CSA Army had been able to capture Anapolis or Baltimore. The Maryland Assembly voted on session in December 1861, andit was voted down.

[platypeanArchcow]

Why in the world would Arkansas be in the union? Also, Maryland would have gone to the Confederacy as well.

Arkansas was one of the four states to secede after Fort Sumter.  The others were TN, NC, and VA.

[??????????]

Why in the world would Arkansas be in the union? Also, Maryland would have gone to the Confederacy as well.

Not Maryland. Only if the CSA Army had been able to capture Anapolis or Baltimore. The Maryland Assembly voted on session in December 1861, andit was voted down.

Baltimore wouldn't have needed to be captured. It was VERY confederate friendly. And actually Maryland voted not to vote on secession.

[PBrunsel]

The Battle of Antitem came because of Lee's plan to get Maryland in the CSA.

[??????????]

The Battle of Antitem came because of Lee's plan to get Maryland in the CSA.

And? That does not mean the majority of Maryland was against the south or secession. Well it IS a part of the south so I guess it can't be against itself. lol

[TommyC1776]

Do you think that if the Confederates had won, they would've taken parts of Mexico?

[??????????]

Do you think that if the Confederates had won, they would've taken parts of Mexico?

Yes. And Cuba. Google "Knights of the Gold Circle".

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Arkansas, like the other upper south states the seceded had a slave population that was approximately one quarter of the whole polulation.  UNlike them, it contained a significant amount of unsettled territory that was not suited for plantation agriculture, so I feel that if the upper south states had remained in the union, it would have been the first to consider gradual emancipation.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Do you think that if the Confederates had won, they would've taken parts of Mexico?

Yes. And Cuba. Google "Knights of the Gold Circle".

They might have wanted Cuba, but I don't think that they could have taken it from Spain.  Mexico would have had to wait until Maximillian was gone and I think that the Union would certainly have given Mexico enough support to defend itself.  The CSA would want such territory, but it would not have been able to gain it by either force or persuasion.

[??????????]

Do you think that if the Confederates had won, they would've taken parts of Mexico?

Yes. And Cuba. Google "Knights of the Gold Circle".

They might have wanted Cuba, but I don't think that they could have taken it from Spain.  Mexico would have had to wait until Maximillian was gone and I think that the Union would certainly have given Mexico enough support to defend itself.  The CSA would want such territory, but it would not have been able to gain it by either force or persuasion.

It's all speculation really. If the war had ended in 1862 then it would have been perfectly feasible because the CSA had a somewhat "working" navy and a decently supplied army. If the south had won in 1865 (Due to Lincoln losing the election or being killed by Booth, when he should have done it) then I would say it wouldn't have been feasible. What killed the south, and I repeat myself again, were the lack of railroads, plain and simple. The North had punished the south economically so bad before the war that it crippled the south. Also Ernest, I do see you are from the greatest state in the south. Ever been to Sumter?

[PBrunsel]

The reason I think Maryland would not join the CSA was because the peopke of Maryland just didn't want to. If you remember right, in 1862 while invading Maryland Lee's Army of Northern Virginia played "Oh Maryland, My Maryland" to try to start a revolt. The tactic did not work, but backfired as the CSA playing the state's anthem angered many citizens of the state. Tactic kind of backfired, didn't it Marse Lee?

[??????????]

The reason I think Maryland would not join the CSA was because the peopke of Maryland just didn't want to. If you remember right, in 1862 while invading Maryland Lee's Army of Northern Virginia played "Oh Maryland, My Maryland" to try to start a revolt. The tactic did not work, but backfired as the CSA playing the state's anthem angered many citizens of the state. Tactic kind of backfired, didn't it Marse Lee?

That was western Maryland. It was a heavy germanic area that was fiercly unionist. Eastern Maryland consisted of mostly old timer families who have lived their since the 1600s and were fiercly southern in their ideals.

[M]

The Confederates should not have had a problem buying chunks of Mexico from Max. And Cuba would have been realtively easy to take from a decrepit Spain.

[??????????]

Has anyone here taken my suggestion and googled "Knights of the Golden Circle". Very interesting!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Ernest, I do see you are from the greatest state in the south. Ever been to Sumter?

Yes, I've been to Sumter several times.  However, I'm fairly netural when it comes to the Second American Revolution, perhaps because my paternal ancestors were in Canada at the time, their ancestors having moved there after ending up on the losing side of the First American Revolution.    (I was born in the Sunshine state, tho.)

I can't see the war ending in 1862 with a Confederate victory, not with Lincoln as President.  The only realistic chance the south had of winning in 1862 was if there was British recognition, and the only way that could have happened would have been with a Union President who was politically inept enough to let the Trent affair get out of hand.  Say what you will about Lincoln, he was not politically inept, especially to that degree.

[??????????]

Ernest, I do see you are from the greatest state in the south. Ever been to Sumter?

Yes, I've been to Sumter several times.  However, I'm fairly netural when it comes to the Second American Revolution, perhaps because my paternal ancestors were in Canada at the time, their ancestors having moved there after ending up on the losing side of the First American Revolution.    (I was born in the Sunshine state, tho.)

I can't see the war ending in 1862 with a Confederate victory, not with Lincoln as President.  The only realistic chance the south had of winning in 1862 was if there was British recognition, and the only way that could have happened would have been with a Union President who was politically inept enough to let the Trent affair get out of hand.  Say what you will about Lincoln, he was not politically inept, especially to that degree.

If Lee had pushed the advantage at Second Manassas and had crushed the Federal Army at Chantilly the road to DC would have been wide open. Also, if the special orders hadn't been lost Lee would have done a LOT more damage then he did. I believe that Britian was about to recognize the CSA. But do I believe that would have been a good thing? Absolutely not. I believe they would have taken upon our mutual weakness and retaken the colonies. They still did drool over us at that point.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

At most Lee would have gotten to the outskirts of Washington, to the forts manned by the Heavy Artillery units.  The idea that the Army of Northern Virginia could have taken Washington, DC in 1862 is pure fantasy.  Just as Richmond took a long seige to take, so would have Washington, and the Confederate Army could never have won on a protracted seige because the Union reserves would be mobilzed to break it before it could succeed.  Lee's retreat sfter his invasion would always provide the situation for Lincoln to announce the Emancipation Proclaimation and once that Proclaimation was received in London, any chance that London would recognize the CSA before Washington did was gone.

[??????????]

At most Lee would have gotten to the outskirts of Washington, to the forts manned by the Heavy Artillery units.  The idea that the Army of Northern Virginia could have taken Washington, DC in 1862 is pure fantasy.  Just as Richmond took a long seige to take, so would have Washington, and the Confederate Army could never have won on a protracted seige because the Union reserves would be mobilzed to break it before it could succeed.  Lee's retreat sfter his invasion would always provide the situation for Lincoln to announce the Emancipation Proclaimation and once that Proclaimation was received in London, any chance that London would recognize the CSA before Washington did was gone.

And that's the only reason why it was announced because the E.P. didn't actually free any slaves.

[Ben.]

At most Lee would have gotten to the outskirts of Washington, to the forts manned by the Heavy Artillery units.  The idea that the Army of Northern Virginia could have taken Washington, DC in 1862 is pure fantasy.  Just as Richmond took a long seige to take, so would have Washington, and the Confederate Army could never have won on a protracted seige because the Union reserves would be mobilzed to break it before it could succeed.  Lee's retreat sfter his invasion would always provide the situation for Lincoln to announce the Emancipation Proclaimation and once that Proclaimation was received in London, any chance that London would recognize the CSA before Washington did was gone.

Lee’s Biographer Douglas Southall Freeman said that Lee’s greatest chance to destroy completely a Union Army came in the Battle of the Seven Days. At Glendale Lee had already mauled the Union Army of the Potomac and sent it reeling back from the gates of Richmond, “Stonewall” Jackson’s “Army of the Valley” had finally arrived and now moved to facing the weak Federal right flank which was accorded along an area of swamp land, the next day Lee ordered classic double envelopment with James Longstreet’s Corps attacking from the South against the Federal Left and Jackson from the North against the Federal Right, the Federal Commander George B McClellan had abandoned the field and fled back to his headquarters on the banks of the James during the night and the Army of the Potomac lacked any leadership with Divisional commanders largely left to fend for themselves, Longstreet’s attack went well but for some reason Jackson’s attack never materialised and Longstreet was forced to end his own attacks, the reason for Jackson’s tardiness at Glendale can largely be attributed to exhaustion he had been deprived of any real rest for weeks and at the same time had lead perhaps the finest campaign of the civil war (“the Valley Campaign” of 1862), so suppose that Jackson gets some rest and attacks?

   



Jackson’s Corps smashes through the Federal Right flank and soon after Longstreet does likewise on the Federal Left, with both Federal flanks torn away it is left to every divisional commander to get out as best they can, the only two who might have achieved this would have been Joseph Hooker who was commanding a division slightly to the South and Phil Kearny who was perhaps the finest commander in the Army of the Potomac at the time (he was later killed at Canntily during the Federal retreat from Second Manassas.

Such a victory would have rendered 2/3rds of the Federal Army destroyed and the Federal Base at Harrison’s landing vulnerable, Lee would probably have easily seized the Federal base along with McClellan’s vast artillery train (which had been intended to reduce the fortifications of Richmond), Kearny and Hooker may have been able to withdraw their troops leaving either French or Sumner to either surrender Harrison’s landing or die defending it, but still that would leave but 20,000 men with little heavy equipment of over 120,000 men who had landed there at the beginning of the campaign. Lee would have moved North. John Pope may still have taken his patchwork command of the “Army of Virginia” out to meet Lee and would have been soundly beaten in fact with a probably noticeably smaller command Pope may well have been completely annihilated by Lee in the area around Manassas leaving only very limited Federal forces within the City of Washington with freshly raised troops forming the bulk, in such a situation Lee could have invaded the North as Braxton Bragg and Kirby Smith invaded Kentucky in Maryland he would have found little to stop him, with either Hooker or Kearny in command of the forces in Washington they would have realised that a force of what would have been about 40,000  could not hope to smash Lee and would have urged that  Union forces from secondary theatre such as South Carolina, North Carolina and perhaps even Louisiana be transported to Washington to reform a credible Army this would have left ports such as Charleston, Williamsport, Savannah, Mobile and even perhaps New Orleans under far less pressure and possibly permitting far more foreign aid to the South to enter the CSA, While at the same time confederate forces from these areas could be moved to Kentucky or Maryland, with Lee free to exploit the rich farmland of Pennsylvania and Maryland and with the likelihood that on entering the Pro-Southern East of the Maryland his Army would have been reinforced with new recruits while at the same time receiving men from along the Eastern Sea Board who had been freed thanks to the Union withdraw from these areas. In Kentucky with Lee dominating the Eastern theatre and reinforcements coming in all the time Bragg and Smith would probably have been emboldened to continue their offensive after the indecisive battle of Perryville and would probably have been able to compel General Buell to withdraw back into the fortifications of Louisville while Bragg’s plans for installing a confederate government in Kentucky to raise troops could have gone a head and within a mouth or so may have furnished the Confederate Army of Tennessee with an additional 5,000 or so men as could well have been the case with Lee in Maryland.

With the Confederates dominating both East and West and only Rosecrans and Grant holding their own at Corinth Mississippi against the Confederate General Van Dorn it is likely the English government (PM Palmerston had said after second Manassas that a second Confederate victory would compel Britain to recognise the South and France was already at this stage very eager to do so), Lincoln faced with the Royal Navy breaking up the Union blockade and with the threat of a British army in Canada (which including Militia number 110,000 men, spread wide but still a powerful force if concentrated) would have been forced to “acquiesce to the good entreaties of the European power” and may well have resigned leaving Hannibal Hamlin to suffer the repercussions of  a treaty with the south which may well have left Eastern Maryland as part of the CSA (the western part of the state remaining in Federal hands and providing a corridor of land around washing DC itself) and Kentucky (or at least the greater part of it) under confederate control). Within a decade or so the Economic ties that would have grown between North and South would have trumped any lingering hostility and while their may have been a friendly rivalry and some suspicion (with the CSA probably unabashedly allied with France and England) relations would not have been very bad between the two nations. However Slavery (Which would probably have come ot a slow end between the late 1880’s and mid 1910’s) would have been a bone of contention.