Iowa poll shocker: Edwards and Obama tied for first; Clinton in fourth!

[ndcohn]

does anyone have any insight on hillary's chances in Nevada? Clearly she has an uphill battle in IA/SC and NH looks to be a big clash between Obama and Clinton.

[© tweed]

I'm not convinced the media will pay much attention to Nevada.  Maybe Richardson can do well there, maybe he can't.

[Deano963]

does anyone have any insight on hillary's chances in Nevada? Clearly she has an uphill battle in IA/SC and NH looks to be a big clash between Obama and Clinton.

I am very convinced that Hillary will not beat Edwards in Nevada, as Edwards has very, very strong support of the labor unions in Nevada. That dosen't mean Edwards will necessarily win Nevada, however. Obama could win, but I don't think Hillay can.

[Platypus]

Terrible news for Vilsack and Hillary.
Great news for Edwards and Obama.

Vilsack will keep gaining in the polls. Do you think he won't be spending at least 80% of his time driving around Iowa to get support? He has the time and ability to meet every single Iowa Democrat if he wants.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It might be a real Edwards/Obama horserace.

Perhaps:

Iowa: Obama
Nevada: Edwards
New Hampshire: Obama
South Carolina: Edwards

[Boris]

Terrible news for Vilsack and Hillary.
Great news for Edwards and Obama.

Vilsack will keep gaining in the polls. Do you think he won't be spending at least 80% of his time driving around Iowa to get support? He has the time and ability to meet every single Iowa Democrat if he wants.

Very true, but if he spends all his resources on Iowa, he's gonna be slaughtered in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. I expect that Vilsack's candidacy will be similar to Sen. Tom Harkin's candidacy in 1992.

[Verily]

It might be a real Edwards/Obama horserace.

Perhaps:

Iowa: Obama
Nevada: Edwards
New Hampshire: Obama
South Carolina: Edwards

As someone else pointed out, if Edwards is tied with Obama in Iowa, there's no way he can win South Carolina, where approaching 50% of Democrats are black.

@hughento: Maybe, but the people of Iowa know him already. He's been their governor for a while, and he's campaigned before. More campaigning won't help him as much as it would help an out-of-stater.

[TheresNoMoney]

It might be a real Edwards/Obama horserace.

Perhaps:

Iowa: Obama
Nevada: Edwards
New Hampshire: Obama
South Carolina: Edwards

Obama will almost surely win South Carolina, with its high black population. I think Iowa and NH are real tossups.

[Eraserhead]

Terrible news for Vilsack and Hillary.
Great news for Edwards and Obama.

Vilsack will keep gaining in the polls. Do you think he won't be spending at least 80% of his time driving around Iowa to get support? He has the time and ability to meet every single Iowa Democrat if he wants.

Very true, but if he spends all his resources on Iowa, he's gonna be slaughtered in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. I expect that Vilsack's candidacy will be similar to Sen. Tom Harkin's candidacy in 1992.

Only he isn't even going to win Iowa.

[Eraserhead]

It might be a real Edwards/Obama horserace.

Perhaps:

Iowa: Obama
Nevada: Edwards
New Hampshire: Obama
South Carolina: Edwards

That would be so great if Hillary didn't win even one of those.

[sethm0]

 I think everyone on this forum seriously underestimates Hillary's chances. I'm not saying she's my favorite, but consider:

 Unlike Obama, Edwards and Vilsack, Hillary has yet to spend any time at all in Iowa or New Hampshire. She has yet to spend any money on putting her name out in those states. The only money she has spent has been on behind the scenes, laying the ground work type stuff. The other candidates have all essentially begun running for President. Hillary has done all she can to avoid the appearance of running.

 It's only a matter of time before the other shoe drops. When she starts spending all that money and kicks that massive operation into gear, her poll numbers in primary states will begin to rise dramatically.

 I am not predicting a Hillary victory necessarily, just saying that anyone on this site or elsewhere who thinks that she is not still the frontrunner does not see the whole picture.

[7,052,770]

 I think everyone on this forum seriously underestimates Hillary's chances. I'm not saying she's my favorite, but consider:

 Unlike Obama, Edwards and Vilsack, Hillary has yet to spend any time at all in Iowa or New Hampshire. She has yet to spend any money on putting her name out in those states. The only money she has spent has been on behind the scenes, laying the ground work type stuff. The other candidates have all essentially begun running for President. Hillary has done all she can to avoid the appearance of running.

 It's only a matter of time before the other shoe drops. When she starts spending all that money and kicks that massive operation into gear, her poll numbers in primary states will begin to rise dramatically.

 I am not predicting a Hillary victory necessarily, just saying that anyone on this site or elsewhere who thinks that she is not still the frontrunner does not see the whole picture.

you're correct.  I still consider Hillary to be the clear frontrunner.

[Eraserhead]

 I think everyone on this forum seriously underestimates Hillary's chances. I'm not saying she's my favorite, but consider:

 Unlike Obama, Edwards and Vilsack, Hillary has yet to spend any time at all in Iowa or New Hampshire. She has yet to spend any money on putting her name out in those states. The only money she has spent has been on behind the scenes, laying the ground work type stuff. The other candidates have all essentially begun running for President. Hillary has done all she can to avoid the appearance of running.

 It's only a matter of time before the other shoe drops. When she starts spending all that money and kicks that massive operation into gear, her poll numbers in primary states will begin to rise dramatically.

 I am not predicting a Hillary victory necessarily, just saying that anyone on this site or elsewhere who thinks that she is not still the frontrunner does not see the whole picture.

you're correct.  I still consider Hillary to be the clear frontrunner.

You and the Mainstream Media. Iowa may end up deciding the whole thing again though.