Hillary vs. Romney predictions

[sethm0]

 
 Here's my map:

Clinton : 315
Romney: 223

 I have Romney pulling it out in Nevada because he is mormon. I also give him Florida. I have Hillary pulling it out in West Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri and Colorado, though these were all tough calls. Even if she lost those states, though, she would still win overall 284-254.

[Reaganfan]

I believe that the 50-50, red state blue state polarization will continue if Hillary is the Democratic Nominee no matter now conservative a candidate the GOP puts up. If it's McCain or Giuliani...different story.

Romney: 296
Clinton: 242

[adam]

Romney - 50.1% - 274 EVS
Clinton - 49.9% - 264 EVS

Clinton would probably start in the driver's seat, polling at about 54% with over 300 electoral votes. However, after months of campaign, smear tactics, debates, etc..Romney would close the gap.

I think the campaign would come down to whether or not Clinton had worn out her welcome on the political dance floor. I think she will if she is nominated. People will get sick of her and choose the fresher face.

Having said that, Romney is a flip-flopping mormon. Thus, if he wins...it wont be by a huge margin.

[Padfoot]

I believe that the 50-50, red state blue state polarization will continue if Hillary is the Democratic Nominee no matter now conservative a candidate the GOP puts up. If it's McCain or Giuliani...different story.

Romney: 296
Clinton: 242

Romeny is doomed unless he goes up against Ted Kennedy or some other extreme liberal.  Besides, he won't make it out of the primary.  When a Mormom is being asked to clarify his positions on abortions and gays you know he is finished.

[sethm0]

 I'm just specutlating here, but what are the chances that McCain and Guliani split the moderate vote in the primaries, giving someone like Romney the chance to slip though. In Iowa and New Hampshire, are results like this really so crazy: Romney 30, McCain 25, Guliani 25, others 20?

 I am probably off base here for a number of reasons. Just thinking out loud.

 I would also imagine that in the general Hillary will leave a number of people on the left disatisfied and Romney the same on the right. Maybe we'd see 2-3% going to write ins and minor candidates.

[Reaganfan]

 I'm just specutlating here, but what are the chances that McCain and Guliani split the moderate vote in the primaries, giving someone like Romney the chance to slip though. In Iowa and New Hampshire, are results like this really so crazy: Romney 30, McCain 25, Guliani 25, others 20?

 I am probably off base here for a number of reasons. Just thinking out loud.

 I would also imagine that in the general Hillary will leave a number of people on the left disatisfied and Romney the same on the right. Maybe we'd see 2-3% going to write ins and minor candidates.

Well, I think that...and know in some cases...that many conservatives are flocking to McCain.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Romney - 290
Clinton - 248

I'm being generous to Hillary on this one. After a national camapign, she'll be torn up by the conservatives and even the press. 

[Padfoot]

Why is everyone so convinced that Hillary would get trounced by Romney?  It makes absolutely no sense to me.  Not that it matters too much though because I'm fairly convinced that neither will win their respective primaries.

[tarheel-leftist85]

[ndcohn]

Romney 270
Clinton 268

[True Democrat]

285-253

Right wing third party nearly costs Romney the election (VA is close because of this)

[CPT MikeyMike]

Right wing third party nearly costs Romney the election (VA is close because of this)

TD - I doubt there will be a right wing third party if Hillary running.

They will want to be united in defeating her.

[Padfoot]

Here's my map:

Hillary-310
Romney-228
In the West the Mormon vote bumps Romney in Utah and Idaho and clinches Nevada for him.  Colorado and New Mexico continue their leftward trends.  Hillary edges out some victories in the peripheral south but the Katrina exodus causes her to loose Louisiana.  Florida is trending GOP.  In the Midwest, Hillary manages to hold on in Wisonsin and takes Ohio and Iowa.  Hillary gets a home state bump in New York.  Virginia is close but goes to Romney, probably goes Democrat in 2012.

[TomC]

Here's my map:

Hillary-310
Romney-228
In the West the Mormon vote bumps Romney in Utah and Idaho and clinches Nevada for him.  Colorado and New Mexico continue their leftward trends.  Hillary edges out some victories in the peripheral south but the Katrina exodus causes her to loose Louisiana.  Florida is trending GOP.  In the Midwest, Hillary manages to hold on in Wisonsin and takes Ohio and Iowa.  Hillary gets a home state bump in New York.  Virginia is close but goes to Romney, probably goes Democrat in 2012.

Yes, this is the best so far.

[CultureKing]

agreed, America isnt conservative enough for Romney, at least after Bush... personally I think she would have a pretty good chance in a general election, she did amazingly well in NY this year and if she can manage to come across as more of a moderate then america will fallow (also remember approval ratings under the previous Clinton administration were ridiciously high, if she can get them to think that this will be a continuation of that then she will get a bump)

[Reaganfan]

Here's my map:

Hillary-310
Romney-228
In the West the Mormon vote bumps Romney in Utah and Idaho and clinches Nevada for him.  Colorado and New Mexico continue their leftward trends.  Hillary edges out some victories in the peripheral south but the Katrina exodus causes her to loose Louisiana.  Florida is trending GOP.  In the Midwest, Hillary manages to hold on in Wisonsin and takes Ohio and Iowa.  Hillary gets a home state bump in New York.  Virginia is close but goes to Romney, probably goes Democrat in 2012.

Disagree. If John Kerry and John Edwards couldn't win Arkansas, Iowa and Missouri...how the hell will HILLARY CLINTON?

[Padfoot]

Disagree. If John Kerry and John Edwards couldn't win Arkansas, Iowa and Missouri...how the hell will HILLARY CLINTON?

Last time I checked John Edwards was never at the top of the ticket.  If you're referring to Kerry and Edwards as a single ticket all I have to say is: Massachusetts Liberal.  Even if Kerry had run with a Republican running mate there would be no way for him to win any southern states.  Also, looking at 2004 results won't be helpful in predicting 2008 unless Democrats go with another super Liberal.

In 1996 Clinton won majorities, not pluralities but majorities, in Iowa and Arkansas (and Louisiana too actually but Katrina killed the Democrat's chances there).  If the Clintons are still as popular in AR as I have heard then she should be highly competitive there.  Also, remember that this is a state with 2 Democratic Senators and 3 out of 4 Democratic Representatives.  Out of all the South it is one of the best chances the Democrats have.  Missouri might be a stretch but even without it Hillary still wins comfortabley on my map. 

[True Democrat]

I would argue that New Mexico is static.  It is not shifting Democratic or Republican (look at 1976 and you can see it is almost the exact same numbers as it is now).  New Mexico always votes about how the nation as a whole votes.

[Padfoot]

I would argue that New Mexico is static.  It is not shifting Democratic or Republican (look at 1976 and you can see it is almost the exact same numbers as it is now).  New Mexico always votes about how the nation as a whole votes.

OK, point taken. New Mexico is a bit more like the Iowa of the SouthWest.  It would still go Dem in my scenario tho.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

[Boris]

lmao

[Tory]

[sldhfwrt87345]

So most seem to think that Clinton would carry only the traditional Democratic strongholds?  What about Massachusetts?  I don't really know about his relative popularity there, so does he really have a chance to win that state?

I'm new at this.  Please bear with me!

[Verily]

Here's my map:

Hillary-310
Romney-228
In the West the Mormon vote bumps Romney in Utah and Idaho and clinches Nevada for him.  Colorado and New Mexico continue their leftward trends.  Hillary edges out some victories in the peripheral south but the Katrina exodus causes her to loose Louisiana.  Florida is trending GOP.  In the Midwest, Hillary manages to hold on in Wisonsin and takes Ohio and Iowa.  Hillary gets a home state bump in New York.  Virginia is close but goes to Romney, probably goes Democrat in 2012.

I pretty much agree with this, except Missouri. I think fond memories of her would give Clinton a narrow victory in Arkansas in this scenario, but she is unlikely to win Missouri against Romney.

@rcnj3890, actually, most of these predictions are pretty hackish for the Republicans. McCain or Giuliani would trounce Clinton, but Romney would lose narrowly.

[Smash255]

So most seem to think that Clinton would carry only the traditional Democratic strongholds?  What about Massachusetts?  I don't really know about his relative popularity there, so does he really have a chance to win that state?

I'm new at this.  Please bear with me!

Welcome to the forum.

I think most people severely unerestimatee Clinton's electability on a national scale.

As far as Romney goes, he wouldn't have a chance in hell of winning Mass.  He is very unpopular there, especially since his mad dash to the right for the GOP Primaries.