Hillary vs. Romney predictions

[Padfoot]

I believe that the 50-50, red state blue state polarization will continue if Hillary is the Democratic Nominee no matter now conservative a candidate the GOP puts up. If it's McCain or Giuliani...different story.

Romney: 296
Clinton: 242

Romeny is doomed unless he goes up against Ted Kennedy or some other extreme liberal.  Besides, he won't make it out of the primary.  When a Mormom is being asked to clarify his positions on abortions and gays you know he is finished.

[Padfoot]

Why is everyone so convinced that Hillary would get trounced by Romney?  It makes absolutely no sense to me.  Not that it matters too much though because I'm fairly convinced that neither will win their respective primaries.

[Padfoot]

Here's my map:

Hillary-310
Romney-228
In the West the Mormon vote bumps Romney in Utah and Idaho and clinches Nevada for him.  Colorado and New Mexico continue their leftward trends.  Hillary edges out some victories in the peripheral south but the Katrina exodus causes her to loose Louisiana.  Florida is trending GOP.  In the Midwest, Hillary manages to hold on in Wisonsin and takes Ohio and Iowa.  Hillary gets a home state bump in New York.  Virginia is close but goes to Romney, probably goes Democrat in 2012.

[Padfoot]

Disagree. If John Kerry and John Edwards couldn't win Arkansas, Iowa and Missouri...how the hell will HILLARY CLINTON?

Last time I checked John Edwards was never at the top of the ticket.  If you're referring to Kerry and Edwards as a single ticket all I have to say is: Massachusetts Liberal.  Even if Kerry had run with a Republican running mate there would be no way for him to win any southern states.  Also, looking at 2004 results won't be helpful in predicting 2008 unless Democrats go with another super Liberal.

In 1996 Clinton won majorities, not pluralities but majorities, in Iowa and Arkansas (and Louisiana too actually but Katrina killed the Democrat's chances there).  If the Clintons are still as popular in AR as I have heard then she should be highly competitive there.  Also, remember that this is a state with 2 Democratic Senators and 3 out of 4 Democratic Representatives.  Out of all the South it is one of the best chances the Democrats have.  Missouri might be a stretch but even without it Hillary still wins comfortabley on my map. 

[Padfoot]

I would argue that New Mexico is static.  It is not shifting Democratic or Republican (look at 1976 and you can see it is almost the exact same numbers as it is now).  New Mexico always votes about how the nation as a whole votes.

OK, point taken. New Mexico is a bit more like the Iowa of the SouthWest.  It would still go Dem in my scenario tho.